08/13/2025
Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Levels Since October
Avg. 30-year fixed rate:
Week of 8/8 -0.20
Week of 8/1 -0.06
Stocks (Weekly)
DOW NASDAQ
43,968 -162 21,242 +120
Mortgage interest rates hit a 10-month low. This was the big headline last week as rates fell sharply in reaction to the fallout from July’s surprising employment data.
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market, and bonds are generally influenced by economic reports. Along with inflation, job data is closely watched by traders, and the August 1 Employment report caused a frenzy of bond buying. When traders purchase more bonds, rates typically go down. The reaction was so huge that the average mortgage lender did not fully adjust their rate offerings to match the market movement, which is a decision typical of large swings in bonds.
Week-over-week, rates fell 20 basis points, the biggest drop since mid-September of last year. By the end of last week, the average lender was quoting 6.55% for top-tier conventional 30-year fixed scenarios. According to Mortgage News Daily, rates have not been this low since October 4.
The July Employment report revealed a weaker than first reported U.S. job market, as the hire totals for June and May were revised lower by a combined 258,000 positions. Job growth for July totaled 73,000, well below the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 100,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, in line with forecasts.
The weak report, especially the dramatic revisions, may motivate the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark rate at its September meeting. CME FedWatch, which tracks interest rate traders and the probability of changes to the Fed’s key rate, raised the odds of a rate cut from 40% to 75.5%.
Two sectors combined for roughly 94% of the job growth: health care (+55,000 positions) and social assistance (+18,000). Retail (+16,000) and the financial sector (+15,000) also posted gains.
Even before the revisions to May and June, job growth for January through April was revised down each month by an average of 52,000. Last year saw an average downward revision, too, though it was only 20,000. Since 1979, the median two-month combined estimate change was an upward revision of 10,000.
The Employment report came amid rising uncertainty due to tariffs. This has largely led to companies holding off on hiring until there is greater clarity regarding their potential impact.
Two other key economics reports pointed toward a slowing U.S. economy. The release of the ISM Services Index on Tuesday revealed that services sector activity unexpectedly flatlined in July with little change in orders and a further weakening in employment. The index fell from June’s reading of 50.8 to 50.1. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.
The new orders index declined to 50.3 in July from 51.3, with export orders contracting for the fourth time in five months. The measure of services employment dropped to 46.4, the lowest level since March.
The data from the ISM Manufacturing Index was similarly disappointing: U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth consecutive month and factory employment dropped to the lowest level in five years. The overall index slipped from 49 in June to 48. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy. The weak reading was also consistent with economists’ expectations for a slowdown in activity in the third quarter from tariffs.
The forward-looking new orders sub-index rose to 47.1 from 46.4 in June. The production measure also increased: 50.3 to 51.4. Despite the rise in production, factories continued to shed jobs: The measure of manufacturing employment decreased to 43.4, the lowest level since July 2020.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday
8/12
• Consumer Price Index
Thursday
8/14
• Producer Price Index
Friday
8/15
• Retail Sales
