09/14/2026
Mortgage rates hit a one-year high last week after two hotter-than-expected inflation reports.
So, the big question: Will rates recover?
In this week’s update, I break down what pushed mortgage rates higher, why rising diesel prices are adding to inflation pressure, and what the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday could mean for mortgage rates going forward.
One thing catching a lot of people off guard: markets are currently pricing in roughly an 80–85% chance the Fed raises rates at its September 16 meeting — not cuts them.
But here’s the important part: a Fed rate hike does NOT automatically mean mortgage rates go higher. I explain why in the video.
WHAT YOU’LL LEARN
� What the latest CPI and PPI inflation reports showed
� Why diesel prices are putting additional pressure on inflation
� How the bond market and 10-year Treasury influence mortgage rates
� Why the Fed does NOT directly control 30-year mortgage rates
� The three things I’ll be watching Wednesday that could move rates
� What buyers, sellers, and homeowners considering a refinance should be thinking about right now
TODAY’S RATES — SEPTEMBER 14, 2026
VA: 6.625% | APR 6.8745%
FHA: 6.375% | APR 7.103%
Conventional: 6.875% | APR 6.985%
Jumbo: 6.875% | APR 6.947%
Rates shown with no points, 780 FICO, and 25% down on Conventional and Jumbo.
I post a new This Week in Rates update every Monday morning.
No jargon. No hype. And no telling you to buy or refinance just because rates moved.
Just what happened, why it matters, what’s coming next, and what your options are.
WANT A PLAN INSTEAD OF A GUESS?
Book a Strategy Session — no application, no credit pull, and no pressure.
We’ll look at your actual situation, run your numbers, and build a strategy that works whether rates go up or come down — so you’re prepared either way.
�email me: [email protected]
� Subscribe for a new mortgage rate update every Monday.
Paul Olbrantz
Clear2Close Brokers | NMLS #468647
Rates shown are as of September 14, 2026 and are subject to change. Your actual rate and APR will depend on factors including credit profile, down payment, property type, loan amount, and loan program. This video is for educational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Equal Housing Opportunity.