06/22/2024
Friday Night! Who's looking for a good read!?
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Here's the scoop on our current Phoenix Metro Real Estate Market (Summary Points from June's Cromford® Report)
✨ *Real Estate Market Predictions* ✨
1. The overall market index for the Phoenix area is very close to be a balanced market level. However not quite there yet, perhaps in the second half of the year and possibly next year. The supply index is rising while the demand index is dropping, pushing the market towards balance.
2. Prices are expected to remain relatively flat in a balanced market.
3. While there are still some strong seller's markets in areas like Chandler and Sun Lakes, many other cities are seeing their seller's markets weaken with declining indexes. This overall shift is moving the broader Phoenix market into balance.
4. In a balanced market, sellers have to be more realistic on pricing and may need to offer concessions, while buyers gain more negotiating power compared to the recent strong seller's market.
✨ *Mortgage and Interest Rate Predictions* ✨
1. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. For rates to come down meaningfully, the 2-year Treasury yield needs to drop below the 10-year yield, resolving the current yield curve inversion.
2. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the Fed funds rate steady until at least September 2024. However, it’s predicted the Fed may start lowering rates in July or August if unemployment data shows signs of cooling wage growth and labor market tightness.
3. If the 2-year yield drops and the yield curve un-inverts before September, mortgage rates could start declining in July or August from the current 7% level. A drop to around 6.5% would likely lead to a measurable increase in housing demand.
4. Overall, while there are signs that mortgage rates may start edging lower in the coming months if economic conditions warrant, a more substantial decline hinges on the Fed's actions and the movement in Treasury yields, which are closely watched by housing market analysts.
✨ *What This Means for You* ✨
If you're a seller ... We are in a slight seller's market right now and shifting to a balanced market won't benefit you as much.
If you're a buyer ... The market may soon offer more favorable opportunities for negotiation!!
✨ *Action Steps* ✨
Let's Chat! Do you have questions on how these trends impact your buying or selling goals?
- Stephanie
📱(623) 329-6013
📧 [email protected]
💫 eXp Realty
Stephanie Hernandez, Realtor