09/30/2022
Where could have the Phoenix Metro area home market gone? - 9/28/22
To Sell or to Buy, That is the Question!
To answer the first question -- the market is here and evolving. Both the supply and Demand are still here!
With a population of over 4 million, there are only 16354 active single-family home listings for sale (9/28/2022) in the Arizona Multiple listing services (Includes all of Maricopa County +) as compared to the 45,000 plus listings with 100,000 fewer residents during “The Crash”.
Over Sept. we had added another federal interest rate hike of .75% but our market only added another 670 single-family home listings. Over the last 30 days, we only lost 77 pending contracts for single-family home listings. A bit of a surprise that listings did not jump well past normal listing records for this time of year and our pendings didn’t drop by thousands, instead, only double digits. Yes, we have more supply, and we still have demand that so far is stable.
2nd Question -
Buyers - Are you going to flip the home or expect to live in it over the next 5 to 10 years? If you are flipping (buy, fix up and sell in 6 months or less), you might want to wait and see what happens after the election and maybe after Dec. – Keep in mind that over the past 10 years, in all types of markets, prices usually climb after Feb.
If you are looking to hold on to your new purchase for 5 to 10 years (primary home or rental) and are financially stable, I would be looking to buy, NOW! Yes, some people have to move, Offerpad and Zillow must clean out their overbought inventory. I have found that like 7 to 8 years ago, there are some houses coming on the market in Great Locations we have not been able to compete for, over the past 3 years. It is time to grab that great location without much competition and maybe even get a discount off last spring’s prices. Lesser locations are giving larger discounts.
Interest rates – Charts show that most interest rates, once they go up, they usually come down within 2 years. If you purchase a home in a great location at 6%, look to refi in 2 years, or consider yourself lucky if rates go higher. Remember that you are buying and using a home in a great location for 5 years or more, and you should enjoy watching the appreciation. Usually, appreciation in our area is the rate of inflation or better. Hard to beat that.
Sellers – If you bought more than 2 years ago and you have not refinanced during those two years you should still have a large pot of money at the end of the sale. Will you see a sale price that you might have been able to get last May, maybe, maybe not, but are you going to take the money from your sale and run or buy another home at a possible discounted price? --- Yes, you might have to declutter and clean the house. Nice homes, clean and not updated, still bring some good money.
The sad part is, you may have to wait 30 days for a good offer instead of an offer over the 1st weekend.
No, selling your home to a wholesaler or I-Buyer at 15% to 20% below market is still not worth giving away your hard-earned equity. Putting a home on the open market in order to get, usually, the best sale price is the only way to go. Even Now!
Contact us if you want to get a feel for the real market in your area!