02/13/2026
Commercial real estate underwriting is resetting as investors prepare for a $190 billion loan maturity wall between 2026 and 2028 and accept that higher interest rates may represent a “new normal,” rather than a temporary phase. According to insights from Trepp, investors are shifting away from strategies that depend on cap-rate compression or cheaper refinancing and instead focusing on lower leverage, stronger equity positions, and assets with durable, near-term cash flow.
As noted by Trepp executives Lonnie Hendry and Steven Buschbaum, capital is increasingly selective, concentrating on well-located properties and clean business plans that pencil at today’s rates. Multifamily remains a key stress point due to prior aggressive assumptions, but overall delinquency levels remain contained. The emerging theme for 2026–2028 is “optimistic but realistic” underwriting—where upside is treated as optional, not essential, and deals are justified by conservative rent growth, higher operating costs, and refinance scenarios that work without relying on rate relief.
