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AZ Real Estate Financing, Phoenix, AZ (2026)

09/23/2026

Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since May 2024The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil prices. 10yr Treasury yields were still in the familiar September range between 4.93% and 5.01%, and there was limited economic data on tap that threatened to upset the apple cart. Now let's talk about tail risk. It refers to a distribution of potential outcomes for something that can be reasonably forecasted with a margin of error. A vast majority of the outcomes fall in the main body of the parabolic distribution, but occasionally, an outcome will fall at one of the tails. While this week's economic calendar is indeed very light, today's lineup included a report that can have a big impact on rates on very rare occasions. The results of that report were so much stronger than expected as to constitute "tail risk" territory. This is a particularly bad time for such tail risk as far as the rate market is concerned. Only yesterday, we had Fed speakers reminding us that if the economy proved to be hotter than expected, the rate hike outlook shared at least week's Fed announcement would be "too low." Today's data immediately forced the market to consider the risk that next week's data (which is much more important) conveys a similarly strong message. The result was a rapid shift in Fed rate expectations for next year. While longer term rates don't react to a Fed rate hike after the fact, they're more than willing to react to changes in rate hike expectations. 10yr Treasury yields jumped over 5.1% and the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate jumped 0.09% to 7.26%. This matches the high seen in early 2025. At this point, we'd have to go back to May 1, 2024 to see anything higher.

The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil prices. 10yr Treasury yields were still in the familiar September range between 4.93% and 5.01%, and there was limited economic data on tap that th...

09/21/2026

Mortgage Rates Little-Changed to Start New WeekIt was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lower interest rates. The average mortgage lender lowered top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.01% compared to Friday. Underlying motivation for the bond market can mostly be attributed to lower oil prices, which have been a common source of intraday inspiration for better or worse. With today's drop, the average lender remains right in line with the rates they offered before last week's Fed rate hike. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lower interest rates. The average mortgage lender lowered top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.01% compared to Friday. Underlying motivation for the b...

09/17/2026

Mortgage Rates Back Near Lows of The WeekWe love it when a plan comes together. Heading into yesterday's Fed announcement, the hope was that a rate hike would reassure investors in longer-term bonds (like those that underlie mortgage rates). We also didn't expect that benefit to necessarily play out on the day of the hike itself (it didn't). In fact, Fed day threw rates a bit of a curveball--not because the Fed hiked, but rather, due to the implications for additional hikes in Fed Chair Warsh's press conference. Thankfully, as of today, Warsh's unexpected hawkishness proved to be a temporary inconvenience for the market and rates are now back to the lowest levels of the past 4 days (and very close to the lowest levels of the week seen on Monday). There's no guarantee about where we'll go from here, but common themes remain important. These include big ticket economic data and oil price volatility relating to Iran war developments. After hitting 7.24% yesterday, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is back down to 7.19%.

We love it when a plan comes together. Heading into yesterday's Fed announcement, the hope was that a rate hike would reassure investors in longer-term bonds (like those that underlie mortgage rates). We also didn't expect that benefit to necessarily play out on the day of the hike itself (i...

09/15/2026

Mortgage Rates Higher Again Ahead of FedMortgage rates moved higher for the 6th day in a row on Tuesday and to the highest levels since January, 2025. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 7.22% and the most prevalently-quoted top-tier rate is 7.25%. Over the past 6 days, the average is up 0.33%, which is is the most abrupt jump since October 2024. At least some of the recent volatility is due to the implications of recent economic data and oil price implications on Fed policy. Tomorrow brings the next regularly-scheduled Fed announcement. Markets are heavily betting that the Fed hikes rates at this meeting. Despite the expectations, not all experts agree that a hike is a foregone conclusion. As such, no matter what the Fed does, there's a higher risk of a volatile response in rates. Volatility can go both ways, of course. The Fed Funds Rate applies to a different part of the rate continuum than mortgage rates. Even in the past 6 weeks, we've seen several examples of Fed Funds Rate expectations move in the opposite direction from longer-term rates like mortgages. All that to say, a Fed rate hike tomorrow--in and of itself--does not necessarily mean higher mortgage rates. In fact, some would argue that an absence of a Fed rate hike could be the worse outcome for longer-term rates. Speculation aside, there is more to a Fed announcement than a mere "cut/hold/hike" decision, and markets will take all of it into consideration before committing to a big reaction. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage rates moved higher for the 6th day in a row on Tuesday and to the highest levels since January, 2025. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 7.22% and the most prevalently-quoted top-tier rate is 7.25%. Over the past 6 days, the average is up 0.33%, which is is the most abrupt jump s...

09/11/2026

Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher on FridayLooked at in a vacuum, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning's levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged." In terms of big-picture benchmarks, the increase officially brings rates in line with their highest levels since early 2025. To be clear, we were just barely lower than May 2025 levels yesterday. Now we're slightly lower than February 2025 levels. The intraday market movement was interesting. The bond market (which underlies mortgage rate movement) actually improved this morning even though Fed rate hike expectations increased following a slightly hotter inflation reading in this morning's economic data. This is an uncommon pattern. There are two ways to look at it. First, longer-term rates may have been encouraged by the uptick in Fed rate hike expectations because that provided reassurance that Fed was more likely to take steps to combat higher inflation. In other words, some of the upward pressure in longer-term rates is thought to have been driven by fear of Fed inaction. If this morning's inflation data was hot enough to increase the odds of action, but not so hot as to cause a material change in the inflation outlook, it's the perfectly warm bowl of porridge. In OTHER other words, yes! There's a scenario where longer-term rates (things like mortgages and 5-10yr Treasury yields) actually WANT the shortest-term rates (like the Fed Funds Rate) to move higher.

Looked at in a vacuum, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning's levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged." In terms of big-picture benchmark...

09/10/2026

30yr Fixed Rates Jump to 7.07%You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which is an average of the 5 business days (4 in this case, due to the holiday) ending yesterday (September 9th). Because of that methodology, the number lags reality. Today alone, the average lender moved up 0.125% in rate. In addition, Freddie no longer accounts for "points" (additional money paid upfront for a lower rate). In other words, 6.75% with one point is roughly the same rate as 7.00% with no points. As a reminder, our daily rate index accounts for the impact of points so day to day comparisons are always apples to apples. With all that in mind, today's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 7.07% from 6.97% yesterday and 6.89% the day before. This is a substantial 2-day change and the highest rate we've seen since May 21, 2025. While some people are erroneously talking about last night's news regarding $5k payments from the President, there are only two real factors that account for a vast majority of the upward movement. The first was yet another surge in fuel prices. The second was a poorly received Producer Price Index this morning (an inflation report that contributes to the even more important PCE inflation data due out at the end of the month). [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which is an average of the 5 business days (4 in this case, due to the holiday) ending yesterday (September 9th). Because of that methodology, the numb...

09/08/2026

Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Start The WeekTop tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the highest mark since June 2025. In general, rates have been increasing steadily since the Iran war ceasefire ended with the uptick frequently correlating with higher fuel prices. Today's "unchanged" rates require an asterisk. Although mortgage rates are based on bonds and although bonds move constantly throughout the day, mortgage lenders prefer to keep rate changes to a minimum--ideally once a day if the market remains calm enough. This means the bond market can "lead off" in one direction or the other before most mortgage lenders go to the trouble of making mid-day changes. In today's case, bonds have been taking a lead-off in the direction of slightly higher rates. The implication is that tomorrow's rates could be slightly higher unless bonds find a new motivation to improve between now and the time the average lender sets rates for the day (around 10am ET, give or take).

Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the highest mark since June 2025. In general, rates have been increasing steadily since the Iran war ceasefire ended with the uptick frequently correlatin...

09/04/2026

Rates Only Slightly Higher Despite Strong Jobs ReportMortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH stronger than expected. BLS counted 162k new jobs created compared to a median forecast of 56k. On many occasions in the past, the result of such a "beat" would have been a substantial increase in mortgage rates. These days, however, the job count carries a bit less weight than it used to for a variety of reasons. It definitely had an impact today, but a much smaller impact than career rate-watchers may have expected. Average top-tier 30yr fixed rates moved only modestly higher and remained safely below the long-term highs seen on Wednesday. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may....

09/03/2026

Mortgage Rates Drop to Week's Best LevelsMortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part of the improvement was due to comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller who said that it wouldn't be necessary to hike rates at the next meeting unless inflation data surprises to the upside. Before that, the underlying bond market was already showing some resilience in overnight trading. The prevailing pattern has been a fairly reliable correlation between bond yields and oil prices. But this time around, yields held fairly steady in the overnight session even though oil prices moved higher. Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and mortgage-specific bonds correlate almost flawlessly with 5-10yr U.S. Treasuries on any given day. The net effect was a return to the week's lowest levels for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate at the average lender. Good news notwithstanding, risks remain on the horizon. Friday morning brings important economic data in the form of the jobs report. Next week's inflation data will be just as critical. As always, data-related volatility cuts both ways. If it's much weaker than expected, rates would likely continue lower. But if it's much higher than expected, rates would likely make new highs.

Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part of the improvement was due to comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller who said that it wouldn't be necessary to hike rates at the next meeting unle...

09/01/2026

Mortgage Rates Pushing New Long-Term HighsFighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate hit the highest levels since June 2025. Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture. At 6.89%, we're still well below that June 2025 high of 6.97%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday's average top-tier 30yr fix...

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