Carma Lamm, Coldwell Banker

04/13/2026

From Natalie Frazier at GRA:
Week of April 13, 2026

Last Week: Relief Rally Takes Hold

Markets rallied late last week after the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire. The pause in tensions eased fears around global energy supply disruptions, pushing bond markets higher and briefly helping mortgage rates stabilize. The move was largely driven by declining oil prices as investors priced in a reduced risk of prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Weekend Headlines: Oil Back in Focus

That optimism faded over the weekend. Negotiations around reopening the Strait of Hormuz stalled, and new U.S. actions to limit Iranian shipping pushed oil prices back above $100 per barrel. With roughly 20% of the world’s oil flowing through that region, higher oil prices are reviving inflation concerns and putting modest upward pressure on interest rates to start the week.

Looking Ahead: All Eyes on Oil

It’s a quiet economic week on the data front, with PPI being the only notable inflation report. In the absence of major economic releases, geopolitical risk and energy prices will be the main drivers for bonds and mortgage rates. If oil stays elevated, rates may feel a slight inflation bump; if tensions cool, rates could stabilize quickly. Rate moves right now have less to do with housing and more to do with global headlines. For buyers and sellers on the fence, staying flexible and ready to act remains the best strategy.

WEEKLY INTEREST RATE SNAPSHOT

04/08/2026

Is your dream home close to the city, but off the beaten path? Have you seen the recent changes along Windom St in the South Side Slopes? Two new townhomes have been built, and a four parcel space is being prepped for a 6,000+ SF home, situated perfectly to blend into the topography and take advantage of the views.

Our Windom Street listing of 9-contiguous lots, ~23,289 SF with 260 FT of frontage would be the perfect site for a unique home with a fabulous view, or could accommodate about seven, single family homes! Call me for details! (Renderings of modern home with a PGH skyline deck-view).

04/02/2026

National trends are shifting, but real estate is always local. If you’re wondering how rates, inventory, and buyer leverage are playing out in your area, I can walk you through the numbers!

From Federated: The housing market is beginning to shift in favor of buyers. Rates have dipped into the 5% range, inventory is improving, and negotiating power is slowly returning to homebuyers. As the spring market approaches, these changes could open new opportunities for buyers and homeowners planning their next move. Supply and demand absolutely apply to the housing market, and this year, buyers are in the driver’s seat. Redfin says there are currently 600,000 more home sellers than buyers, shifting the negotiating power to hopeful homeowners. The number of people looking to buy a home in January fell 8% month-over-month to 1.36 million – the lowest level since 2017. Interest rates hit a welcome milestone at the end of February, dropping into the 5% range on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage for the first time in 3½ years. Freddie Mac says: “Rates, combined with the improving availability of homes for sale, is meaningful and will drive more potential buyers into the market for spring homebuying season.” Experts expect mortgage rates to hover in the upper 5 to 6% range this year. Cryptocurrency appears to be making its way into the mainstream. This often misunderstood financial asset is gaining acceptance when qualifying for a mortgage. Until recently, crypto assets had to be liquidated before they could be counted toward a borrower’s financial standing. An increasing number of lenders and investors are adapting policies allowing borrowers to use digital assets to help qualify without converting them to cash.

03/12/2026

From our in-house Lender:
The War In Iran has caused mortgage rates to rise. While geopolitical crisis sometimes lower rates due to 'safe-haven' bond buying, this conflict has triggered an 'oil shock' that is driving inflation fears higher, which in turn pushes up the bond yields that set mortgage prices.

Current Impact on Rates (as of March 11, 2026)
Rate Increase: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6% for the week ending March 5, according to Freddie Mac, up from a three-year low of 5.98% just before the conflict.

Market Volatility: Daily tracking by Mortgage News Daily and Bankrate showed rates climbing as high as 6.07% to 6.13% in the days following initial strikes.

Yield Correlation: The 10-year Treasury note yield—the primary benchmark for mortgage rates—spiked above 4% as investors reacted to the conflict.

Primary Drivers of Rising Rates
Surging Energy Costs: Oil prices jumped nearly 6% to $71 a barrel following strikes on Iran.

Inflation Fears: Higher gas prices (up 26–27 cents in one week) have renewed concerns that inflation will remain sticky, making long-term bonds less attractive and raising their yields.

Federal Reserve Outlook: The conflict has caused markets to dial back bets on interest-rate cuts; the probability of two cuts this year fell from 79% to 55%.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Concerns that Iran may fully close this vital shipping chokepoint (carrying 20% of global oil) are keeping risk premiums high. Today, attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted a critical global energy corridor. While strategic oil reserves are being opened to help stabilize supply, the immediate impact is being felt in markets: crude is trading around $86/barrel, the 10‑year Treasury has backed up to ~4.20%, and UMBS prices are down roughly 6/32nds on the day. Bottom line: Inflation data keeps the door open for Fed cuts later this year, but rising energy risk is pushing yields higher near‑term. Until geopolitical tensions ease, markets are likely to stay volatile—pressuring equities and keeping rate relief uneven.

Future Outlook
Short-Term Pain: Experts at NerdWallet and Zillow suggest rates could continue to trend higher if energy disruptions persist.

Potential Recessions: A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global recession, which might eventually force rates lower by cooling the economy, though the immediate effect remains inflationary.

Mortgage rates (as of March 11, 2026) are significantly lower than the 7% peaks seen in early 2025, though they have recently begun to climb again due to the war in Iran.

2025 Peak Drivers: Rates hit 7.04% in January 2025 primarily due to stubborn inflation and a strong labor market that kept the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates.

2026 Rise Drivers: The recent jump from 5.98% to 6.21% is a direct reaction to the Iran conflict, which has spiked oil prices and renewed fears of an "energy-driven" inflation shock.

Improvement in Affordability: Despite the recent uptick, current rates remain roughly 0.8% lower than their 2025 highs. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), a drop from 7% to roughly 6% can bring nearly 3 million additional households back into the housing market.

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03/03/2026

Week of March 2, 2026

Markets & Interest Rates

Markets are volatile to start the week. Just a week ago, conditions were calm and rates were moving lower. That narrative has flipped. Heightened geopolitical tensions following U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran have pushed oil prices higher and added fresh uncertainty across global markets. As a result, interest rates have been choppy and, in recent sessions, have drifted higher. The yield on the benchmark 10yr Treasury Note is above 4%, after reaching 3.94% last week.

Geopolitics, Oil & Inflation

In times of geopolitical stress, markets typically experience a “flight to safety,” where investors move into U.S. Treasuries—often pushing interest rates lower. This time, the picture is more complicated. Rising oil prices raise concerns about inflation, which can keep interest rates elevated even as investors seek safety. Gold has moved higher, risk assets have come under pressure, and yields remain volatile as markets work through these crosscurrents.

The Week Ahead

Looking ahead, markets will be closely watching upcoming economic data for clues on inflation and growth, including key readings on employment, consumer activity, and inflation trends. At the same time, geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain a major swing factor. Any further escalation could keep oil prices elevated, influencing inflation expectations and interest rates. As markets balance economic data against global headlines, interest rates are likely to remain sensitive to both—making flexibility and timing especially important in the days ahead.

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03/03/2026

Weekly Interest Rate Snapshot

02/20/2026

Weekend Market Update from GRA:

01/14/2026

Let's go! With a great, new price these three lots could be your New Year's project! While one home would be lovely on this quaint neighborhood street, there is space for multiple single family residences. Call us to help you get your project started. We will walk you through the development process relevant to this district!

01/14/2026

Central Lawrenceville, with its mixed zoning, has been evolving in its experiment as a place to work, live, and play. Working for both the Buyer & Seller on this sale, we walked the potential development of this vacant lot through the City of Pittsburgh's Department of Planning, and pre-development meeting with PWSA. Looking forward to sharing our land development experience with you! Call us with any questions regarding upcoming projects and we will partner with you to reach your goals!

12/12/2025

This is a good synopsis of the mechanics of current mortgage rates/behavior, from our GRA rep Natalie Frazier:

I wanted to give you a simple, straightforward explanation of what’s been happening with mortgage rates this week – especially since many of you have asked why rates didn’t drop right away after the Fed cut its short-term rate.
Here’s the key thing to understand: The Federal Reserve does not directly set the mortgage rates you and I see every day. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields and the bond market much more closely than they follow the Fed’s short-term rate.
What happened this week:
The Fed did cut its short-term rate (as expected).
Normally that would help mortgage rates move lower… but the bond market had a different reaction.
Investors are worried that:
Inflation might stay higher for longer (“sticky”)
The economy is still strong
The government continues to borrow and spend a lot
Future Fed cuts could accidentally push inflation back up
Because of those concerns, longer-term bond yields actually went up this week (the 30-year Treasury is now around 4.86%, the highest since September).
When longer-term yields rise, mortgage rates tend to follow.


Bottom line: Right now the bond market is saying “we’re not convinced lower rates are here forever,” so mortgage rates have stayed higher than many people expected immediately after the Fed cut.
The good news? This is exactly why mortgage rates and Fed moves are correlated but not directly tied together. Sometimes they move in the same direction, sometimes they don’t. That’s normal, and it’s why we always watch the bond market (not just the Fed) when quoting a mortgage rate.

What this means for buyers right now:
30-year fixed rates are a little higher today than earlier in the week.
Shorter-term loans like 15-year fixed or adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are holding up better because they’re less sensitive to what’s happening at the long end of the bond market.
If you’re shopping or have a loan in process, it’s a great time to compare all your options—sometimes a 15-year or an ARM can save you a lot if the 30-year fixed is being stubborn.

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10/21/2025

The Burgh makes the NG Best of the World List for 2026...https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/best-of-the-world-2026/article/pittsburgh-pennsylvania

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