Tony Lomatchinski - EZ Mortgages, Inc.

Tony Lomatchinski - EZ Mortgages, Inc. Loan officer with EZ Mortgages. NMLS: 1771864 DRE: 02221182 Corp NMLS: 1160876 Licensed in CA

Whether it’s a purchase, refinance, reverse mortgage or home equity line Tony will ensure you know all your options and find the right fit for you.

09/08/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are starting the week lower, while Mortgage Bonds are slightly higher this morning. Oil prices have jumped above $93/barrel after Iran targeted a US aircraft carrier over the weekend, to which the US responded by sinking three Iranian oil tankers. The Houthis also struck a refinery in Saudi Arabia.

📊 Big Week Ahead: All Eyes on Inflation This week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday is the main event — it will heavily influence whether the Fed hikes rates at the September 16 meeting.

-Markets currently see a 58% chance of a rate hike, but that could shift quickly based on Friday's data
-Core inflation (the number that matters most here) is expected to come in at 0.2% for the month, which would bring the annual rate down from 2.5% to 2.4%
-If inflation shows that kind of progress, a hike becomes much less likely. A hotter-than-expected report could put a hike back on the table

🏡 Home Values Holding Steady

-Home prices remained stable in July, with year-over-year growth ticking up slightly to 1.4%
-Forecasts now call for 2% appreciation over the next year — an upgrade from the previous estimate of 1.5%

📅 Week Ahead

-Wed: Mortgage Applications, 10-Year Treasury Auction
-Thu: Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Existing Home Sales
-Fri: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

🔑 The Bottom Line: This week's inflation report will be pivotal for where rates head next — and home values continue to show quiet, steady strength in the meantime.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

09/04/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both lower this morning following a surprisingly strong jobs report.

💼 August Jobs Report

-162,000 jobs were created in August — far above the 58,000 expected
-The previous two months were also revised higher by a combined 55,000
-Leisure/Hospitality had a big bounce back, adding 62,000 jobs
-The unemployment rate held at 4.1% — and this time it stayed there because more people joined the labor force, not because people left it (a healthier sign)
-Worth noting: this report doesn't match up with other recent labor market data, which have been showing much weaker job growth — and August's numbers are historically volatile and prone to revision

📊 What This Means for the Fed

-Markets now see a 60% chance of a rate hike at the September 16 meeting, up from 50% yesterday
-That said, the Fed already viewed the labor market as solid, so this single report may not carry as much weight in their decision
-Their bigger focus remains on inflation — next week's CPI report will likely be the key factor

📅 What to Watch Next Week

-Mon: Markets closed for Labor Day
-Tue: ADP Weekly data
-Wed: Mortgage Applications, 10-Year Treasury Auction
-Thu: Producer Price Index, Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims
-Fri: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

🔑 The Bottom Line: A strong jobs report shook things up today, but next week's inflation data will likely matter more for what the Fed decides on September 16.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

09/03/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both higher this morning after encouraging comments from a Fed Governor. Oil prices, however, continue to climb, WTI now trading at $92/barrel.

🎤 Fed Commentary

-A voting Fed member said this morning he sees signs of disinflation and believes underlying inflation is doing better than the headline numbers suggest
-He's open to holding rates steady at the September 16 meeting if inflation data keeps improving — but would consider a rate hike if next week's inflation report comes in hot
-Markets viewed these comments as encouraging, helping Bonds rally today

📋 Jobless Claims

-New unemployment claims rose slightly to 206,000 — still historically low
-Continuing claims rose to 1.8 million

💼 More Signs of a Softening Job Market

-A private labor market report showed just 37,000 jobs created in August
-Most of that growth came from Government and Healthcare — sectors less tied to overall economic strength
-Leisure & Hospitality, which tends to reflect real economic activity, lost jobs again
-This follows yesterday's ADP report, which also came in weaker than expected

🔑 The Bottom Line: All eyes are on tomorrow's official jobs report. With multiple other labor market measures pointing to weakness, there's a good chance it comes in soft too — which could further influence the Fed's next move.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

09/02/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are mixed and Mortgage Bonds are steady this morning. Oil prices ticked slightly lower but remain just under $90/barrel.

💼 ADP Employment Report
- Just 38,000 jobs were created in August — well below the 53,000 expected and the weakest reading in 7 months
- Nearly all of the job growth came from Education/Health Services; every other sector combined actually lost jobs
- Wage growth held steady: 4.4% year-over-year for those staying in their jobs, 7.3% for job switchers

🎤 Fed Commentary
- A voting Fed member said this morning he views the labor market as solid and believes the current rate level is appropriate (having a hard time wrapping my head around that) — signaling he may lean toward leaving rates unchanged at the September meeting
- Next week's inflation report will be a key factor in that decision

📋 Mortgage Applications
- Rates held at 6.79% last week — the highest level in about 12 months
- Application volume was fairly flat; purchases are unchanged year-over-year, while refinances are down 19%
- Refinances still made up 42% of all transactions last week — a reminder that cash-out and debt consolidation options remain a big opportunity right now

🔑 The Bottom Line: The labor market keeps showing signs of cooling, even as some Fed officials describe it as solid — all eyes turn to next week's inflation data.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

09/01/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks and Bonds are both slightly lower this morning, with oil prices up another 3% and nearing $90/barrel after reports that two oil tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz.

📋 Jobs Data: JOLTS Report

-Job openings rose to 7.27 million in July, but came in below expectations after a big downward revision to the prior month
-Hiring rate dropped to 3.2%, near its lowest level in over a decade
-Quits rate fell to 1.9%, tied for the lowest since 2014 — a sign employees are staying put since there's less hiring/poaching happening
-Healthcare continues to be one of the only sectors consistently adding jobs
-Worth noting: recent reporting suggests roughly 1 in 5 job postings may be "ghost jobs" — listings that aren't real openings — plus some postings get counted multiple times across states, so headline job-opening numbers may overstate actual demand

🎤 Fed Commentary

-A voting Fed member said this morning the Fed should hike rates at the September meeting if next week's inflation report doesn't improve — echoing recent comments from the Fed Chair
-Markets are now pricing in a 66% chance of a rate hike on September 16
-This week's jobs data and next week's inflation reports will be key in determining what happens next

🔑 The Bottom Line: All eyes are on this week's employment data (ADP tomorrow, BLS jobs report Friday) as the Fed weighs its next move.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

08/31/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks and Bonds are lower this morning as oil prices jump following weekend developments overseas.

🛢️ Oil & Geopolitics

-Oil prices rose 3% to above $86/barrel after military strikes over the weekend raised concerns about global oil supply
-Ongoing disruptions to refining capacity abroad are adding further pressure on oil prices
-This, combined with a more hawkish tone from the Fed on Friday, is weighing on markets today

🏡 Home Values: A Bright Long-Term Outlook

-Fannie Mae surveyed 150 top housing economists on where home prices are headed
-Median forecast: home values could rise 2.6% this year — and 15% cumulatively over the next 5 years
-On a $500,000 home, that's roughly $75,000 in potential equity growth over 5 years
-Great reminder that real estate is a long-term wealth-building opportunity, not just about today's rate

💼 Big Jobs Week Ahead This week's jobs reports will be closely watched as key data heading into the Fed's September meeting:

-Tue: JOLTS (job openings)
-Wed: ADP Employment, Mortgage Applications
-Thu: Jobless Claims
-Fri: BLS Jobs Report (the big one)

🔑 The Bottom Line: Geopolitical headlines are driving short-term market swings, but the bigger picture for housing — long-term value growth — remains encouraging.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

08/28/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are higher while Mortgage Bonds are volatile this morning, following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech.

🎤 Jackson Hole Speech Recap

-Warsh struck a more hawkish tone, saying the Fed still has "work to do" if inflation isn't clearly moving toward their 2% goal
-He downplayed recent cooler inflation readings and believes the economy and job market remain strong
-He stopped short of committing to a rate hike, but the market reaction was clear: odds of a September hike jumped from 35% to 48% overnight, with markets now pricing in a 100% chance of at least one hike by year-end

📉 Jobs Data Gets a Big Revision

-The BLS released updated job numbers covering Q1 2025 through Q1 2026
-Job growth over that full year was revised down by 79,000 — nearly 30% lower than originally reported
-That works out to an average of just ~16,000 jobs created per month — a very weak pace
-All of the weakness came from the private sector; government hiring was actually revised higher

🔑 The Bottom Line: Markets are digesting mixed signals — a more hawkish Fed tone against a backdrop of weakening jobs data. Expect continued volatility as we head into next week's key reports.

📅 What to Watch Next Week

Tue: JOLTS (job openings)
Wed: ADP Employment, Mortgage Applications
Thu: Jobless Claims
Fri: BLS Jobs Report

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

Friday FAQ!
08/28/2026

Friday FAQ!

08/27/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks are higher and Mortgage Bonds are steady this morning.

📊 A Closer Look at Inflation

-The Dallas Fed's "Trimmed Mean" inflation gauge — which filters out extreme price swings to show underlying inflation — held steady at 2.3% year-over-year in July
-This measure strips out one-off distortions (like oil price swings and portfolio management quirks) to give a "cleaner read"
-The takeaway: underlying inflation continues to look well-behaved

🏠 Rental Market Update

-New rents rose 0.1% in August — the 7th straight monthly increase, and the first positive August since 2022
-Rents are still down 0.8% year-over-year, but that's an improvement from last month
-Higher mortgage rates are pushing more would-be homebuyers into renting, adding to rental demand

🔑 The Bottom Line: A key inflation measure the Fed watches closely continues to show tame, stable conditions beneath the surface — good news as markets look ahead to future rate decisions.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

08/26/2026

☀️ Morning Market Update

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both slightly lower this morning after the Fed's favorite inflation report came in right in line with expectations.

📊 PCE Inflation Report
- Inflation rose 0.2% in July, with the annual rate holding steady at 3.7%
- Core inflation (excludes food & energy) also came in as expected, unchanged at 3.3% year-over-year
- The big takeaway: nearly ALL of the inflation came from just a few areas — Shelter, Healthcare, Portfolio Management, and tech/electronics (largely AI-driven chip costs)
- Outside of those categories, prices were essentially flat in July — a sign inflation isn't as widespread as the headline numbers suggest

📈 Other Key Data
- Incomes rose 0.4%, a bit better than expected (but that's coming off a multi-year low)
- The personal savings rate ticked up to 3% (still historically low)
- Q2 GDP growth held at 1.5% — a modest pace, not a booming economy

🔑 The Bottom Line: Inflation is looking more contained than the top-line number implies once you dig into what's actually driving it. Combined with modest economic growth, this keeps the conversation around future rate decisions very much in play.

Questions about what this means for you? Reach out anytime! 📲

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Placerville, CA
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