11/16/2020
Courtesy of The Cromford Report.
Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next month.
For the monthly period ending November 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $208.58 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 3.2% from the $202.05 we now measure for October 15. Our forecast range mid-point was $209.38, with a 90% confidence range of $205.96 to $213.57. The actual result was slightly below our mid-point estimate by 80 cents, so our forecast was pretty accurate, in contrast to last month's under-estimate.
On November 15 the pending listings for all areas & types show an average list $/SF of $209.45, up 2.0% from the reading for October 15. Among those pending listings we have 99.0% normal, 0.3% in REOs and 0.7% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. There are twice as many pre-foreclosures in the mix than we had last month, but the number remains very low by historic standards, and lower than at the start of 2020.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on December 15 is $213.32, which is 2.3% above the November 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $209.05 to $217.59.
The last 4 months have seen the average $/SF rise by an impressive 12.4%. This was mostly during the normally weak third quarter. Some of that increase is due to the large number of high-end homes that have been selling during a traditionally quiet part of the year. Even so, supply remains extremely tight and we are likely to see prices continue to rise strongly until they have risen enough to suppress some of the strong demand we are still experiencing.