09/10/2026
Where Could the Raleigh–Durham–Research Triangle’s Next 5 Years of Home Value Growth Come From?
Most real estate headlines tell us what happened last month.
But homeowners don’t typically build wealth in a month.
So I decided to pull the lens back and look at approximately five years of home-value trends across Raleigh, Durham and the greater Research Triangle region.
And the more I looked at the numbers, the more I realized something:
The next five years may not simply be about which city grows the fastest. It may be about what type of home you own, where it’s located and how difficult it will be to replace.
Cary and Apex: Scarcity
Cary and Apex have been two of the strongest performers among the communities I reviewed. That’s particularly interesting because neither is an emerging market. These are already established areas, highly desirable communities with strong access to employment, amenities and Research Triangle Park.
But their maturity may actually become part of their advantage.
As available land becomes more limited, it becomes increasingly difficult to build another neighborhood of detached homes in the locations buyers want most.
That brings us to a word I think will become increasingly important in Triangle real estate:
Scarcity.
A well-located detached home on a desirable lot is something you simply can’t reproduce indefinitely.
And over time, scarcity can matter.
Durham: Employment, Innovation and Opportunity
Durham deserves an important place in this conversation.
While its recent appreciation numbers haven’t necessarily matched Cary and Apex, I don’t believe past appreciation alone tells us where future opportunity may be.
Durham sits at the heart of one of the most important employment and innovation corridors in North Carolina.
Duke University and Duke Health, biotechnology, life sciences, technology and Research Triangle Park all contribute to an employment base that continues attracting talent to the region.
And RTP itself is beginning a major transformation.
For decades, Research Triangle Park was primarily a place people drove to work.
That’s changing.
The RTP 3.0 vision creates opportunities for additional residential neighborhoods, mixed-use development, restaurants, amenities and more walkable environments within the Park.
That matters to housing.
Because when I’m trying to anticipate where housing demand may go over the next five or ten years, I’m not just looking at where prices increased yesterday.
I’m asking:
Where are the jobs going? Where is investment going? And where will people want to live as those employment centers evolve?
That’s why Durham remains an important part of my long-term outlook for the Research Triangle.
Holly Springs: Growth
Then there’s Holly Springs.
Holly Springs has already demonstrated strong home-value appreciation, but there’s still significant residential, commercial and infrastructure growth occurring there. That’s an interesting combination.
You have a community that has already proven its appeal to buyers while continuing to develop the infrastructure and amenities that can attract future residents.
That’s why Holly Springs remains one of the areas I’m watching particularly closely.
Wake Forest: Property Type May Matter More Than Ever
Wake Forest presents a different story.
I like Wake Forest.
It’s growing, it’s attracting buyers, and I believe it will continue to play an important role in the expansion of the Raleigh–Durham region. But I’m paying very close attention to what we’re building there.
We’re seeing considerable townhome and higher-density residential development.
And there’s a logical reason for that.
As land and construction costs increase, builders can provide more homes on less land with attached housing. Townhomes can also give buyers a more attainable entry point into communities where detached homes are becoming increasingly expensive.
I expect townhomes to remain an important part of Wake Forest’s future. But from a long-term ownership standpoint, it creates an interesting question:
If we continue building large numbers of similar townhomes, what becomes scarce?
Potentially, it’s the detached single-family home on a desirable lot.
That doesn’t mean a Wake Forest townhome can’t be an excellent purchase.
An end unit, premium location, larger floor plan, two-car garage, walkability or exceptional outdoor space can differentiate one property significantly from another.
But buyers should understand something else.
When it eventually comes time to sell, an existing townhome may be competing not only with other resales but also with brand-new construction—and potentially builder incentives.
So instead of simply asking:
“Is Wake Forest a good place to buy?”
I think buyers should ask:
“What should I buy in Wake Forest?”
That’s a very different question.
Rolesville, Wendell and Eastern Wake County: Emerging Growth
Then we have Rolesville, Wendell and eastern Wake County.
These communities continue to offer more attainable entry points compared with markets such as Cary and Apex.
As the Raleigh–Durham region grows and housing affordability becomes increasingly important, buyers naturally begin looking farther outward.
Population follows affordability.
And over time, infrastructure, retail, restaurants and services tend to follow population.
That doesn’t guarantee appreciation.
Nothing in real estate does.
But affordability combined with continued regional expansion makes these communities worth watching.
Raleigh: The Center of Gravity
And we shouldn’t overlook Raleigh itself.
Raleigh remains one of the region’s major employment, cultural and economic centers.
But Raleigh isn’t one housing market.
An established neighborhood close to downtown, a newer suburban community, a luxury property and a townhome can behave very differently—even though all four have a Raleigh address.
That’s another reason I believe the next phase of our housing market will require buyers to look beyond city names.
Property type, neighborhood, land and supply may become increasingly important.
So Where Would I Be Watching?
If I were looking five to ten years ahead, I wouldn’t simply rank these communities from one to six.
I’d look at the forces shaping each one.
Cary and Apex: scarcity and established demand.
Durham: employment, innovation and the evolution of Research Triangle Park.
Holly Springs: continued residential and commercial growth.
Wake Forest: strong growth, but increasing importance of property type and housing supply.
Rolesville, Wendell and eastern Wake County: affordability and the next wave of outward expansion.
Raleigh: location, neighborhood-level scarcity and continued strength as a regional employment and lifestyle center.
And that leads me to what may be the most important question a buyer can ask today.
Not:
“Which city appreciated the most last year?”
But:
“What am I buying today that may be difficult to replace five or ten years from now?”
Maybe it’s a detached home on a great lot in Cary.
Maybe it’s proximity to employment and innovation in Durham.
Maybe it’s getting into the path of continued growth in Holly Springs.
Maybe it’s choosing the right property type in Wake Forest.
Maybe it’s buying ahead of the next wave of development in Rolesville or Wendell.
Or maybe it’s owning an irreplaceable location within Raleigh.
The answer won’t be the same for every buyer.
But I believe one principle will become increasingly important:
The next five years of real estate won’t simply be about where people want to live.
It will also be about what kinds of homes become increasingly difficult to reproduce.
And that’s what I’ll be watching.
