02/19/2026
2026 is shaping up to be a good year.
Inflation Slowdown
Greetings!
Inflation rose at a slower pace than expected in January, according to the delayed Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report from the US Department of Labor. Prices increased by 2.4% over the 12 months ending in January 2026, down from 2.7% in December. On a monthly basis, prices went up 0.2%.
Core Inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, grew 2.5% year-over-year, marking the smallest increase in nearly five years. On a monthly basis, Core Inflation increased 0.3% from the previous month.
The cooler-than-expected inflation report was mainly caused by price decreases in gas and shelter. Prices at the pump fell 3.2% last month and are down 7.5% from a year ago. However, electricity prices jumped 6.3% year over year, driven by demand from data centers to support artificial intelligence. Shelter costs, which make up nearly a third of the CPI and include rents as well as motel and hotel rooms, rose 0.2% after increasing 0.4% in December. Food prices rose only 0.2% in January, a notable decrease from 0.7% the month before, partly due to the Trump administration's rollback and reduction of tariffs on some imported foods. Still, food prices are up 2.9% from a year ago.
"The primary explanation for the gap is that households focus on the price level while inflation measures the price change, but a secondary one is the behavior of household essentials," said Eric Winograd, Chief Economist at AllianceBernstein. "Food, medicine and rent prices are rising faster than the series as a whole, and those prices are more important to households than the overall basket."
How Will the Fed React?
The January CPI report was released following the stronger-than-expected jobs report. As a result, it is probable that the Central Bank's policymakers will decide to keep the Federal Funds Rate at its current 3.5%-3.75% range during the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), scheduled for March 19-20.
"Inflation is not high enough to force action, but in [Fed Chair] Powell’s view, it is not yet low enough to justify turning fully toward the labor side either," says Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist, Realtor.com. "Markets continue to price two cuts this year, and stable or falling inflation is a prerequisite on this divided Committee."
According to the January FOMC minutes, "[policy makers] commented that maintaining the current target range of the Federal Funds Rate at this meeting would leave policymakers well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the policy rate, with these judgments being based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
We’ll continue to keep you updated as conditions evolve. In the meantime, if you’d like to talk about buying, selling, or refinancing in today’s market, feel free to call or email. We’ll be happy to help.
Paul Tarr
Ramona Real Estate
DRE 01037960
760-789-4000
[email protected]