10/20/2015
Mighty El Niño brightens winter outlook for local snow-sport lovers
Staci Matlock | The New Mexican Oct 16, 2015 0
Mighty El Niño brightens winter outlook for local snow-sport lovers
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
A map by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows the three-month precipitation forecast for the U.S. The NOAA on Thursday issued a winter forecast, heavily influenced by one of the strongest El Niños on record. The weather pattern is likely to bring a wet winter to New Mexico.
With the strongest El Niño weather pattern in two decades still taking shape in the Pacific Ocean, odds are improving that this coming winter could develop into the best one in years for New Mexico skiers to invest in a season pass.
El Niño patterns develop as warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures coax out tropical thunderstorms and the changing jet stream drives the moisture north into the United States. Meteorologists say El Niño often means parts or all of New Mexico trend wetter and colder than normal.
“This is developing into one of the strongest El Niños on record,” Kerry Jones, a warning coordination meteorologist with National Weather Service in Albuquerque, said in an email Thursday.
In an average El Niño, sea surface temperatures are 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the 30-year norm. In an extreme El Niño, like the current one, sea surface temperatures are at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than normal, National Weather Service meteorologist Andy Church said.
Church said the last El Niño of similar magnitude to the one developing now came during the winter of 1997-98. That winter, the snow accumulation in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains was 270 inches between November and April, which was 73 inches above average. That abundant snowfall translated into almost 60,000 more skier visits than usual at the ski area.
If the same occurs this year, “That’s certainly good news,” Church said.
The good news isn’t just for skiers. Healthy mountain snowpacks translate into more water flowing into New Mexico streams, rivers and reservoirs during the spring melt-off.
The southeastern part of New Mexico is especially prone to lower temperatures and added moisture during an El Niño winter, Church said.
While El Niño is looking strong, forecasters warn that doesn’t guarantee when, where and how much snow will fall. “While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. “Cold-air outbreaks and snowstorms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal time scale.”
Other factors, such as shifting atmospheric pressures in the Arctic known as the Arctic Oscillation, influence the number of brutal cold-air masses that pe*****te into the Southern U.S., and one called the Madden-Julian Oscillation affects the number of heavy rainstorms in the Pacific Northwest.
Sometimes El Niño can look like it is coming on strong in the Pacific and then peter out, as it did in the winter of 2014-15. “Most [snow-measuring] sites were near to above average due to a couple of key storms,” Church said, “but El Niño never really materialized until spring.”
El Niño usually tapers off in late winter and early spring, but the impacts in New Mexico and across the Southwest can last well beyond.
California, battered by severe drought and wildfires over the last four years, could get some relief, but the Pacific Northeast likely is in for another dry winter and spring, meteorologists said.
In the near term, Church said the Santa Fe area is in for some windy weather this weekend, followed by a “wetter, cooler period beginning midweek. You might see some snow on Pecos Baldy and Santa Fe Baldy.”
The New Mexican is a sister publication of The Taos News.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook 2015-2016
Updated Oct 16, 2015
0
by Taboola Sponsored Links From the Web
20 Popular White Celebrities Who Have Black Spouses
POPHitz
The WORST "type" of veggie for Arthritis (Are you eating it?)
Arthritis Reversed Guide
Best Hair Color 2015 Announced and It's a Home Dye!
eSalon
Her Baby Is Asleep. Now Watch What The Puppy Does (VIDEO)
Little Budha
The world’s largest ‘dive coaster’ plunges 214 feet in a train with no floor
Digital Trends
Drivers Surprised They Never Knew This Rule
ImproveInsurance.com
Welcome to the discussion.
Log In
Buying insurance online is a great getaway whether you are trying to buy a new insurance policy or trying to get a better rate on an existing one. Most of the insurance providers offer users to buy their policies online. Within no time you can fill out a form, check for your options and buy your pol…
