Arturo Ortiz - Real Estate Agent

11/04/2025

📉 Warning Signs for the Stock Market? The CAPE Ratio Says “Buckle Up.”

Ever heard of the ratio? It’s one of the most respected tools use to measure whether the is cheap or overpriced — and right now, it’s flashing red.

🔍 The CAPE ratio (created by Nobel Prize–winning Robert Shiller) compares today’s prices to the average of the past 10 years of adjusted earnings.
When this number is high, history says: future returns tend to be weak.

Here’s a quick look back 👇
📊 1929 (before the Great Depression): CAPE near 30 — followed by a .
💥 2000 (dot-com bubble): CAPE hit 44 — then the market lost nearly 50%.
📉 2021-2025: CAPE has again climbed above 40 — historically linked with low or even negative real returns over the following decade.

⚠️ That doesn’t mean a crash tomorrow — but it does mean we’re in expensive territory.

💡 This is where the wisdom of Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffett’s mentor) and Seth Klarman comes in:

They taught the principle of the Margin of Safety — the idea that you should never pay full price for optimism. Always buy with a buffer so that if things go wrong, you’re still protected.

When valuations are sky-high, that margin of safety disappears. So:
✅ Be cautious.
✅ Be patient.
✅ Focus on true value, not hype.

As Seth Klarman wrote: “The best investors care more about not losing money than about making it.”

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🧭 Bottom line: The CAPE ratio is warning that the next decade could bring slower returns or turbulence ahead. History doesn’t repeat — but it rhymes. Stay humble, stay patient, and protect your margin of safety.

The Wall Street Journal

Link in description below 👇

10/27/2025

Argentina, free markets and Catholic Christianity:

🇦🇷 : A potential free-market turning point

Argentina’s electorate has handed a strong mandate to pursue a radically agenda in a country long mired in inflated , currency chaos and welfare-state dependency. His rise is a wake-up call: big governments and heavy intervention eventually suffocate freedom, prosperity and human dignity.

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📌 What’s happening

Milei ran on a platform of slashing government spending, deregulating the , abolishing or radically reducing state agencies and intervening less in markets. He promised a “free-market revolution” after years of state-dominated Peronist governance.

His team has already made dramatic moves: lowering (from triple-digit levels), balancing the , relaxing and import controls.

But the project is no cakewalk: strong resistance remains. and citizens are nervous because reform hurts people in the short term — especially those dependent on the old welfare/guaranteed-job regime.

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✝️ Libertarian & lens: what to cheer, what to caution
What to cheer:

From an Austrian-economics perspective, Argentina is finally trying to raise the anchor of government intervention that has kept it in stagnation and inflation. Less state means more room for , real value creation, property rights, voluntary exchange.

From a Catholic social-teaching view: human dignity is better served when people are free to work, create, exchange and cooperate, rather than be trapped in clientelism, bloated bureaucracy or redistribution that breeds dependency.

Milei’s reforms may help restore a proper moral order of economy: subsidiarity, personal responsibility, property rights, spontaneous order rather than central planning.

What to caution:

Even if the goal is free-market, the transition is painful. Austrian-inspired reformers know you can’t short-circuit social reality: jobs, savings, expectations, culture all matter. If wages fall, pensions shrink, the poor suffer, social trust erodes. The Catholic perspective demands charity, solidarity, and a just safety net — even as we reduce the welfare state.

Free-market purification is not mere politics: it’s moral formation. If reform is done by a populist style, with theatrics (chainsaws, radical slogans) it risks being unsustainable. Stability, institutions, moral culture must go along.

Lastly: without virtue can be chaotic. The Austrian view emphasises free markets, but also the moral pre-conditions: property rights, honest legal framework, restrained government. The Catholic view emphasises that economics serves humans, not the reverse. Reform must respect human dignity, the family, community.

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📝 Takeaway for Catholic libertarians and Austrian-minded readers

Argentina has become a live experiment in what happens when a polity tries to reverse decades of interventionist, state-heavy economics. If successful, it could become a model for other nations. If it fails (or stumbles badly), the backlash will be fierce and the welfare/state-dependency cycle could deepen. For those of us committed to freedom, human dignity and sound economics, it’s a moment to watch, learn and prepare.

Let’s keep in mind: freedom is not an end without means — it needs the right culture, institutions and moral formation to flourish. If Milei’s reforms remain tied to those roots, there’s hope. If they are only shock-therapy without a soul, the risks are high.

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The Wall Street Journal

10/23/2025

🇺🇸 The U.S. National Debt Just Hit $38 Trillion — A Historic Wake-Up Call

For the first time in American history, the has surpassed $38 trillion, according to the Department. spending continues to surge, even as interest payments on the debt have exploded — now one of the largest expenses.

Every borrowed today is a burden on future generations. Yet keeps spending as if (s) don’t matter.

Rand Paul and Representative Thomas Massie have been right all along — we cannot borrow our way into prosperity. Endless debt ceilings, unchecked spending bills, and “temporary” programs that never end have pushed the U.S. toward fiscal collapse.
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💸 What’s Driving the Deficit?

1. Massive federal spending — from social programs to defense budgets, outlays keep expanding faster than revenues.

2. Soaring interest payments — higher rates mean hundreds of billions just to service existing debt.

3. Tax and borrowing imbalance — tax cuts without corresponding spending restraint widen the fiscal gap.

4. Lack of political will — both parties - and including the and keep voting for bills that expand government instead of reforming it.

5. Entitlement growth — Social Security and Medicare costs are skyrocketing as the population ages.

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🧭 What Must Be Done

✅ Enact a balanced amendment — stop spending more than we take in.
✅ Cut unnecessary programs and eliminate wasteful .
✅ Demand fiscal restraint and limited government — Washington should live within its means, just like families do.
✅ Audit federal spending and hold every agency accountable for its budget.
✅ Reform entitlements responsibly before they bankrupt future generations.

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💬 Final Thought:
If we don’t change course now, interest payments alone will soon outpace national defense spending. America doesn’t have a revenue problem — it has a spending problem.

Rand Paul and Thomas Massie have been voices of reason in a Congress addicted to debt. It’s time to listen: fiscal restraint, limited government, and balanced budgets aren’t just conservative talking points — they’re the only path to preserving our nation’s future.

Link in comment sections

10/21/2025

Great news for : The average cost at the pump is sliding — and for many of us, the “$3-a-gallon” gas we thought was ancient history might just be back. 🚗💨

Here’s the scoop from two recent reports:

According to the team at AAA (via the Idaho-based outlet East ), the national average price for regular is already around $3.04 per gallon, and some states are seeing regular prices around $3.44 while inching downward.

A separate article (from Not The Bee) celebrates the fact that the national average has “just dropped below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2020.” (While the exact number may vary slightly by region, the key is: it’s a big drop.)

What’s driving the drop?
Here are the major factors:

Lower wholesale and gasoline costs: As refineries switch away from expensive blends and crude-oil prices ease, production and refining costs decline.

Reduced demand: With fall setting in, less road-trip travel and milder seasonal consumption help pull prices down.

Broader supply cushion: When supply is ample and demand softens, prices fall. This is already playing out across many states.

But here’s an important angle for us Californians:
Can you imagine if and eliminated all taxes on gas, ramped up oil production and drilling (“drill baby drill”), and removed regulatory hurdles for refineries and pipelines? Then we’d likely see gas prices well below the national average — instead of the often much higher prices we pay today.

👉 Call to Action:
Let’s use this national trend to push for real policy change in California:

Ask your local and state representatives: Why are we still paying a premium when the national average is now around $3?

Demand transparency: Show us what portion of our gas price today is taxes, regulatory costs, and restricted production.

Support solutions: If increased domestic production, lower taxes, and streamlined regulation can bring relief, let’s work toward that outcome.

Feel free to share this post and tag someone you know who fills up often — let’s spread the good news and the push for smarter energy policy. 💪

07/17/2024

06/21/2024

Here are the latest housing market statistics for 92346 (East Highland, CA)! If you'd like more detail on the market, what's available or how much your home might be worth, let's set up a meeting to discuss!

I can do a more throughout professional analysis to what your individual house is worth and what it should be selling for.

04/29/2024

Starting last week I just became a real estate agent for Keller Williams in Redlands, CA.

I am pleased to help you with all your California real estate needs such as buying or selling homes. In addition

I would like to welcome you all to my real estate page linked below 👇and my real estate mobile app where you can search homes, keep up to date with the real estate market and check out my real estate blog.

I look forward to connecting with you all

https://app.kw.com/KW6W84ILJC1

https://arturoortiz.kw.com/

12/17/2023

The fastest indulgences that can get you

11/27/2023

It cracks me up when people following technical analysis when a stock or the market is down like 1-2% are like "have you seen! Tesla is down big today!" Or "The market is down 2-3% today!"

Like people! A stock being down a couple percentage points or the market doing so likewise is not a crash. The real simple question should be

1) Is the stock undervalued? A massively overvalued stock going down a few percentage points or even 50% can still make it overvalued albeit it may now be overvalued by a lesser amount.

What is the intrinsic value of the stock? What does a DCF analysis imply? Or an EPV calculation? What is the book value per share or NCAV? Is the stock trading less than the cash it has? Is there company inefficiencies than can be improved by current management or an activist takeover?