09/16/2026
The Big Dilemma: Buy Now or Wait?Right now, the housing market feels like a roller coaster. War in Iran and changing tariffs are pushing inflation up. To fight inflation, the government is raising interest rates. This mix creates massive fear.Buyers see prices dropping and ask a tough question: "Should I wait to buy?"Fear is so high that many people refuse to buy even when a house offers instant equity. This means the home is worth more than the purchase price on day one!đź’ˇ A Better Way ForwardTo help calm these fears, I want to share a great insight from Peter Zevenbergen, a loan officer at NEO Mortgage. His weekly updates offer an elegant solution. His advice can help nervous buyers find peace of mind, block out the noise, and confidently buy the right home.
The Math Behind The Worst Case Scenario, Numbers You Can Use
Most economists don't believe we're in a real estate bubble right now because demand still outpaces supply nationally, with credible estimates from Freddie Mac and NAR putting the shortage somewhere between 3.7 and 5.5 million homes. Seattle's own supply picture has been just as tight for years. But your clients aren’t asking you to prove the economists are right; they're asking what happens to them personally if the economists are wrong. Here are some figures from the actual worst case on record for our market, not a hypothetical one.
â—Ź 2007 peak: King County median single-family home price hits $481,000, the top of the last local housing bubble.
â—Ź 2011 bottom: Prices fall to $311,748, a 35.2% decline, a steeper local drop than the national average.
â—Ź 2017 recovery: Prices climb to $585,000, roughly ten years after the peak and well above where they started.
â—Ź The buyer: Purchases at the exact 2007 peak with 5% down, a $24,050 down payment on a $481,000 home.
â—Ź The loan: $456,950 financed at 6.5% on a 30-year fixed, the going rate at the time.
Here is the number to leave your client with, and it's a better one than the national story. Seattle buyers who bought at the single worst moment in local housing history still turned a $24,050 down payment into nearly $200,000 in equity within ten years. The risk was never buying at the wrong time; the risk was staying out of the market waiting for a signal that things were safe- a signal that historically never arrives until after the opportunity has already priced itself back in. I hope this helps my fellow agents and maybe they can even give Peter a new buyer sale. See less
