Don Ediger, Realtor

02/17/2026

02/14/2026

A new mortgage crisis is quietly hitting those who can least afford it

This week, there was yet another warning that many homeowners might be headed for trouble.

February 14, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. ESTToday at 5:00 a.m. EST

The delinquency rate for mortgages — although still near low levels on a longer-term basis — has been steadily increasing over the past few years. (Illustration by Tucker Harris/The Washington Post; iStock)
Column by Michelle Singletary
Some financial crises sneak up on you, leaving people so perplexed that they become paralyzed, unsure of what to do.

That’s what happened during the 2008 housing crisis. Everything was good for the economy, until it wasn’t.

When the crash came, we got an insider look at the carnage: millions of homeowners lured into mortgages they couldn’t sustain over the long term lost their homes. Between 2007 and 2010, approximately 3.8 million foreclosures occurred, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

During the Great Recession, the federal government eventually stepped in with programs and guidance that standardized assistance. Many private lenders copied the government’s relief efforts. The result was a menu of foreclosure alternatives that could be implemented on a massive scale.

More than a decade passed, and then came a global health crisis. The coronavirus pandemic hit and, again, homeowners struggled to pay their mortgages after being laid off from businesses forced to close to prevent the spread of covid-19. Congress stepped in to provide relief, making mortgage lenders do the right thing and help people save their homes from foreclosure.

This week, there was yet another warning that many homeowners might be headed for trouble.

The mortgage delinquency rates for lower-income households are surging, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data, which recently released its Household Debt and Credit report for the fourth quarter of 2025.


According to New York Fed data, the 90-plus-day mortgage delinquency rate for families in the lowest-income bracket jumped from 0.5 percent in 2021 to nearly 3 percent by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, folks in the highest-income areas are doing just fine, maintaining “historically lower delinquency rates.”

It’s another reminder that the U.S. economy is largely benefiting people with means, while financial storm clouds are gathering over those who can least afford a rainy day. As the New York Fed points out, “financial distress appears to be deepening for households in lower-income areas.”

When the Fed examined what might account for the disparities in mortgage performance, it concluded the job market could be a major contributor.


Although the latest jobs report from the Labor Department shows some gains in January, the rebound was limited to just a few sectors, such as health care.

Nationwide, unemployment is relatively low, but “worsening” regional labor markets are making it hard for people to keep up with their mortgage payments.

“Two-thirds of counties have seen their local unemployment rates rise, and 5 percent of the population lives in counties where unemployment rates have risen by more than 1.6 percentage points,” according to the New York Fed.

The number of job openings has trended down to 6.5 million, a decrease of nearly 1 million openings over the last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month. If you’re unemployed or looking to take on a second job, this data indicates there are fewer positions to apply for than there were a year ago, likely leading to more competition for the roles that remain.

The data on lower-income delinquency rates could very well be the canary in the coal mine for a potential broader economic slowdown. If you can’t find work or a stable job that keeps up with the cost of living, you can’t keep up with your mortgage payments.

I’ve worked with enough people to know that missing a mortgage payment can send you into silent mode. You get scared and shut down. But one of the first things you should do is contact your mortgage servicer as soon as you know you can’t make a payment.

“Many people avoid the call out of fear,” said Ross Levin, executive director of Roots Of Mankind, a Maryland-based housing and financial education nonprofit. “Avoiding calls, letters or emails from your lender will only make the situation worse. Communication is crucial.”

Levin has worked with numerous homeowners to work out options to avoid foreclosure.

Levin says the second step is to honestly assess whether your hardship is short-term, such as a temporary job loss or medical leave, or long-term.


“That distinction matters because it determines whether a temporary solution like forbearance makes sense, or whether a more permanent solution like a loan modification or even a sale should be considered,” he said.

It may be the case that you can’t afford to stay in your home even if your lender modifies your loan terms and is willing to set up a repayment plan. Either you don’t have enough income to support the mortgage, or your expenses are still too high, or both.


Look for a housing counseling agency approved by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which can provide free or low-cost assistance in organizing your paperwork, explaining your options and communicating with your servicer, Levin said. To find a local agency, go to hud.gov/findacounselor.


You can also contact a nonprofit credit counselor at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling (nfcc.org) or by calling 855-794-8525.

And please avoid companies that charge up-front fees and promise quick-fix foreclosure prevention services. They may try to get you to sign over the deed to your home or counsel you to stop communicating with your lender.


Levin assisted a Maryland couple who were manipulated into giving $25,000 to an overseas foreclosure rescue scam operation. The fraudsters told the couple they could reduce their monthly mortgage payment and directed them to send the payments to them. The scammers mine public data to look for desperate homeowners.

Although the couple didn’t get their money back, Levin helped them obtain a loan modification to keep their home.

Here are some options if you’re having trouble paying your mortgage.

Forbearance. The lender allows you to pause or reduce payments for a set period, often three to six months. Please note that this doesn’t erase the debt; you’ll need a plan to repay the amount you missed later.

Repayment plan. If your financial setback was temporary, the lender may let you spread out your past-due payments. A portion of the past-due amounts will be added to your current mortgage balance. But be realistic about your ability to make the larger payments, even for a few months. If you can’t do it, say so. Then explore other options.

Loan modification. This option would change the terms of your loan, perhaps even lowering your monthly payment. Or your loan could be recalculated, and the arrears added to the loan balance, which might increase your monthly payments.

Loan extension. Your delinquent balance would be added to the back end of your loan. Past-due payments would effectively extend your loan term.

Fear will tell you to hide, and scammers will try to profit from your panic. Watch out for both.

02/14/2026

It is not what house you buy, but who you buy it with, that makes a house a home.
Happy Valentines Day!

01/29/2026

Doubling down on stupid. Sheesh.

https://californiaglobe.com/fr/sacramento-mayor-kevin-mccarty-proposes-property-tax-on-high-priced-homes-to-fund-homeless-housing/?fbclid=IwY2xjawPoZedleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFNdzNxNkZ1Qno1ekVpTzRSc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHlnDwyllicFS_npph0ha6HD18SyEwYFaZRMnttaEbLCXss3PffkzmShmNs0T_aem_IU5PEzMdB12wiPFhjeFS7A

Sacramento Mayor Kevin McCarty. (Photo: public domain) Sacramento Mayor Kevin McCarty Proposes Property Tax on ‘High-Priced’ Homes to fund Homeless Housing California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office reported that the state has spent approximately $37 billion on homelessness since 2019, with n...

12/12/2025

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-great-housing-reset-is-coming-income-growth-will-outpace-home-price-growth-in-2026-redfin-forecasts/ar-AA1RQ8x9

Lower mortgage rates and increased home sales could also help a pricey housing market, but don’t expect homes to be affordable for young families.

12/05/2025

News you can use:

Housing market sees major price cuts in expensive cities like San Jose and Los Angeles, while affordable markets maintain steady demand and stability, a new report found.

11/02/2025

Average size home in US and Europe:

10/10/2025

When will mortgage rates go down to 5%?
Hal Bundrick, CFP® · Senior Writer, Mortgages
Updated Mon, October 6, 2025 at 9:23 AM PDT 5 min read

With 30-year fixed home loan rates remaining over 6% for three years now, 5% home loan rates are a faint memory. Most housing experts do not expect mortgage rates to decline significantly further through the end of this year, and any decreases in 2026 are expected to be gradual. However, a major economic setback could change that.
When will mortgage rates go down to 5%?
What would trigger lower mortgage rates? Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said it's a matter of time.

"The most likely catalyst is time. As time goes by, as you get closer to that 2% inflation anchor that the Fed is targeting, it would normalize the (federal funds rate) and it would normalize longer-term interest rates," Hale told Yahoo Finance. "The federal rate would probably get back into the 2-1/2% range or so, which is probably enough to bring long-term yields back around 4%, and that would probably put mortgage rates in the 5-1/2 to 6% range."

She noted that Federal Reserve rate cuts and lower mortgage rates are not a one-for-one proposition. Hale said that from last September through January, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by a percentage point, and mortgage rates rose by almost the same amount.

The Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point interest rate cut on Sept. 17, and once again, 10-year Treasury yields moved higher. As a proxy for mortgage rates, that could signal a bump in mortgage rates, at least in the short term.
A national financial setback could speed the move to 5%
“You could get [to 5% mortgage rates] faster if you were to have a recession," Hale added. "That could cause the Fed to cut rates, and you could see 5 1/2% — maybe even slightly below 5 1/2%, in a really bad recession.”

Even though the latest GDP report indicated that the U.S. is not in a recession, the most recent employment data was worrisome.

Realtor.com research conducted in the first quarter of 2025 found that roughly three in 10 (29.8%) of potential home buyers surveyed said a recession would make them at least "somewhat more likely" to buy a home.

"It seems that some shoppers are anticipating either lower mortgage rates or lower home prices, or both, in a recession to potentially create some sort of opportunity for them to buy," Hale said.

Of course, a recession could bring many complications into the affordability equation: job and income insecurity are among the most likely.
How will 5% rates impact buying competition?
If mortgage rates fall into the 5% range, Hale believed it would bring buyers and sellers back into the market. But would a resurging market introduce more competition for buyers?

Hale said that while home buyers are looking for lower mortgage rates, home sellers are too. Listings may increase as sellers see an opportunity to move into their next house at a reasonable interest rate.

“When rates drop, normally that would increase competitiveness in the market because it creates opportunities for home buyers. But I think, interestingly, this will also create some opportunities for home sellers, so we might not see competitiveness pick up quite as much.”
How to prepare for 5% mortgage rates
The window for lower mortgage rates may open quickly — and perhaps close just as fast. As a borrower and home buyer, you'll want to be prepared.

Have your down payment in the bank. When an opportunity to buy presents itself, you'll have the funds ready to take action. Have enough for closing costs too.

Check your credit score and get your personal finances in shape.

Nail down your home price range and target monthly payment. Knowing how much house you can afford and narrowing down the appropriate neighborhoods can set you up for early success when the time is right.

Explore a prequalification. Talk to a few mortgage lenders and have your home loan options lined up. You can have the lenders in your pocket for when it's time for an official loan preapproval.
When will mortgage rates go down to 5%? FAQs
Are mortgage rates expected to drop to 5%?
It's not a common prediction among industry observers, but one expert believes so. Chris Whalen, an investment banker in New York, told Yahoo Finance in a phone interview that 5% is likely the next move for mortgage rates. "If you really wanted to put me on the spot [and ask me] 'how low do you think mortgage rates will go in the next cycle?' I'd say 5%."

Will mortgage rates ever be 4% again?
It’s unlikely that mortgage rates will fall to 4% anytime soon. Unusually low mortgage rates became possible only after the 2008 housing crisis and the ensuing recession. Then, the COVID pandemic further suppressed them. It was a rare set of circumstances that pushed mortgage rates to historic lows. It would likely take equally uncommon events to cause such low rates to happen again.

When were 5% mortgage rates common?
The average 30-year mortgage interest rate dipped into the lower 5% range for about six weeks in the summer of 2003. Then again, briefly in March 2004. A longer stretch of mortgage rates near and well below 5% began during the housing crisis and recession of 2008 and lasted 14 years, ending in October 2022.

Will Fed interest rate cuts drop mortgage rates to 5%?
Probably not, on the Fed's current schedule. It would likely take an economic reversal, spurring extraordinary federal funds rate cuts, to get mortgage loan rates close to 5%.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to drop to 5%?
Buy a home when you can afford to. A mortgage rate is not a lifetime commitment. It's likely you'll own more than one house, and even if you buy at a higher rate now, you can always refinance your mortgage when rates come down.

10/03/2025

What a government shutdown means for homebuyers and sellers

Source: C.A.R.
With Congress unable to reach a funding deal, as of October 1, the federal government has shut down. During a government shutdown, many real estate programs are impacted. Federal agencies are required to implement contingency plans that allow “essential” activities to continue, even if on a limited basis. The most critical housing and mortgage programs – HUD/FHA, VA and the conforming mortgage guarantors (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) – are structured to maintain core functions throughout a shutdown.

For FHA single-family loans, HUD’s plan permits the endorsement of new loans with a few exceptions. However, activities requiring staff discretion or third-party approvals are likely to pause or move more slowly. For VA home loans, guarantees remain available and lenders can continue processing applications, but reduced staffing may cause delays in appraisals, certificates of eligibility, and underwriting support. While conforming (GSE-backed) mortgages are generally unaffected since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not subject to annual appropriations, some services that depend on other federal agencies may be disrupted or slowed, such as IRS tax transcripts being provided to lenders and employment verification for federal workers. Also, a lapse in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) authority could prevent the sale of new or renewal policies.

09/30/2025

California home sales rebound in August as lower rates lift demand, C.A.R. says

Existing, single-family home sales totaled 264,240 in August on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 0.9 percent from 261,820 in July and down 0.2 percent from 264,640 in August 2024.

August’s statewide median home price was $899,140, up 1.7 percent from $884,050 in July and up 1.2 percent from $888,740 in August 2024.

Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 0.4 percent.
SACRAMENTO (Sept. 22) – A modest improvement in mortgage rates and stabilizing home prices boosted California home sales in August, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/2025-08-Sales-and-Price

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 264,240 in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

August home sales activity edged up 0.9 percent from the 261,820 homes sold in July and slipped 0.2 percent from a year ago, when 264,640 homes were sold on an annualized basis. August’s sales level remained slightly below last year’s revised level and marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines. It was also the 35th straight month in which the seasonally adjusted sales rate remained below the 300,000 benchmark.

Statewide pending sales in August rose 8.3 percent from July as mortgage rates fell to a 10-month low. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales edged higher by 0.2 percent for the first time in nine months. Rates have continued to ease in recent weeks, reaching their lowest level in a year amid mounting signs of economic weakness.

“Despite a softer-than-expected home buying season this year, a bounce back in pending sales last month is an encouraging sign that sales could improve the rest of the year,” said C.A.R. President Heather Ozur, a Palm Springs REALTOR®. “Many prospective homebuyers have been holding out in hopes of lower mortgage rates, and the declining trend in rates observed in the last few weeks could be the nudge that draw them back to the market.”

The statewide median home price rose to $899,140 in August, rebounding after three straight months of year-over-year declines. The price increased 1.7 percent from July — recovering much of the previous month’s drop — and was 1.2 percent higher than the same time last year. This monthly gain also surpassed the long-term July-to-August average of 1.2 percent. With prices showing stability in August and mortgage rates falling to their lowest level in a year, the housing market may see improved support in the months ahead.



“Soft sales demand led to a steady decline in California’s median home price for three consecutive months through early summer,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “However, with a slight uptick in the median price in August and a stabilization in the number of reduced-price listings last month, the market appears to have found a short-term balance between supply and demand. "If mortgage rates maintain their current levels or decline further before year-end, positive year-over-year home price growth may continue in the next few months."

Other key points from C.A.R.’s August 2025 resale housing report include:

At the regional level, only two of California’s major regions posted year-over-year sales gains on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The Far North edged out a gain of 2.9 percent increase from a year ago, while the Central Coast surpassed last year’s sales by 1.6 percent. In contrast, the San Francisco Bay Area experienced the largest regional decline with sales falling 4.1 percent, while Southern California (-3.7 percent) and the Central Valley (-3.5 percent) both experienced moderate sales dips.

At the county level, 24 of the 53 counties tracked by C.A.R. recorded year-over-year sales gains in August, with nearly half of those counties achieving double-digit growth. Mariposa County (81.8 percent) led the way with the highest sales growth from last year, followed by Lassen (46.7 percent) and Kings (36.1 percent). Twenty-five counties experienced annual sales declines in August, with eight counties recording sales drops of more than 10 percent including Yuba (-35.3 percent), Calaveras (-31.3 percent), and Tehama (-24.0 percent).

In August, three of California’s five major regions recorded year-over-year median home prices gains, while the other two experienced a decline. The Central Coast led the way with a 6.3 percent price increase from August 2024. The San Francisco Bay Area median price climbed 2.8 percent year-over-year, and the Southern California region’s median price rose a mild 1.2 percent. The median price in the Far North region dropped 3.1 percent compared to last year, and slipped 1.0 percent in the Central Valley,


At the county level, 29 of California’s 53 counties posted year-over-year median home price gains. Santa Barbara (32.6 percent) recorded the sharpest increase of all counties, followed by Monterey (20.8 percent) and Trinity (10.7 percent). Twenty-one counties registered annual median price declines, with Del Norte (-21.7 percent) dropping the most, while Mendocino (-17.3 percent), and Plumas (-12.3 percent) recorded the second and the third steepest annual price declines in August.
The Unsold Inventory Index (UII) edged higher in August compared to July, as housing demand remained soft despite showing some slight improvement. The index was 3.9 months in August, a slight increase from 3.7 in July and up from 3.2 months in August 2024. Total active listings were up 23.5 percent from a year earlier, the slowest pace of growth since March 2024 — and slipped from the 69-month high recorded in the prior month. August marked the fourth consecutive month of decelerating inventory growth, suggesting that while supply conditions remain favorable for buyers, momentum on the supply side may continue to ease as the market follows its seasonal pattern and begins to decelerate in the fourth quarter.
The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 31 days in August, up from 22 days in August 2024.
C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 98.3 percent in August 2025 and 100 percent in August 2024.
The statewide median price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $426, down from $427 in August a year ago.
The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.59 percent in August, up from 6.50 percent in August 2024, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.
Note: The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 53 counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for 120 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Sacramento.

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