03/12/2026
My Spring thoughts on the current market conditions and where we will go over the next year.
1) Tracking the HOPE for Homeownership bill in DC. This bill among other things would ban institutional investors from owning large amounts of homes. While on its face that appears good, there could be some hefty negative side effects. First being that if large investors must divest of their inventory, this could drastically lower prices by flooding the market. That would be a net positive for new buyers, but for large portions of America the home is where most of their net worth is stored, and older Americans and the working class could take a significant hit. Secondly, this would likely put a stop to build-to-rent projects, which if stopped would likely cause a shortage of rental units causing rental rates to go up in the long term.
2) Interest rates. The slow decent down into 5 has been long awaited, but how much further it will go before bringing significant buyers is yet to be seen. Right now with the significant increase in the cost of living over the last 3 years, I do not see a small rate reduction bringing a lot of buyers off the sidelines. Dropping $180/month on a median priced home in San Antonio doesn't change the affordability much for cash tight families.
3) Builder Incentives. Builders are still offering significant incentives for buyers. This is helpful especially on homes under $500K on getting people to purchase. This is though, in areas with significant new build activity, making it very hard for resale homes as the sellers cannot compete with the incentive packages being offered.
4) Hot Pockets. Some neighborhoods are picking up momentum going into spring. It really is a case-by-case basis on whether it is going to be an easy sale or much more difficult. Getting an experienced agent on your team is a must.
Final Thought: I expect we will see stable home prices across the San Antonio metro area with localized hot and cold spots throughout. New builds are attractive, especially for first time buyers and those buyers should hit on those while the incentives are still great. Sellers should talk with their agent to gauge what their individual neighborhood market is doing and to determine when and how to go about selling. Small SFD and multifam investors may want to wait and watch to see what happens in DC, there may be a dip in homes prices to take advantage of in some markets where institutional home ownership rates are high.