TJ Miller

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05/07/2026

Before you build ADUs on your property… think about how the next buyer will finance it.

This property could fit either:
• 1-4 units
• Or 5+ units

Some people automatically think more units = the best choice

Not always.

Here’s why 👇

Once a property hits 5 units, lenders treat it as a commercial multifamily property

That changes everything:
• Potentially higher down payments
• Different loan programs
• Shorter loan terms
• Potential balloon payments
• Potentially higher interest rates

In today’s market, buyers for 5+ unit properties in San Diego may need around 50% down.

But at 4 units or less?

Buyers have access to:
• Conventional financing
• FHA loans with as little as 3.5% down
• VA loans with potentially 0% down
• Longer fixed-rate terms

That creates a MUCH larger buyer pool.

And sometimes… a higher resale value per square foot.

So when you’re planning ADUs, don’t just think about maximizing unit count.

Think about who your future buyer will be.

Would you rather have a 4 unit or 5 unit final project here?

Follow for more San Diego development breakdowns 📍

04/27/2026

Should you buy a development deal with plans already approved?

This Linda Vista property is asking $1.2M… and comes fully permitted to build 4 additional units in the back.

Here’s the breakdown 👇

• Existing renovated home renting for $4,095/month

• Plans to build 4 ADUs (2 duplexes)

• 2,160 sqft of new construction (1 beds at 430 sqft and 2 beds at 650 sqft)

• Projected rents: about $10k/month from new units

• Total potential rent: about $14k/month

If construction costs come in around $700k, plus $200k for holding costs, utilities, landscaping, solar, etc...

You’re all-in around $2.1m+

At a 5.5% cap rate, that puts the value right around $2.0m–$2.1m.

You’re taking risk to build but not getting any equity for doing that.

No real margin for:
• Delays
• Cost overruns
• Or profit on the exit

This is the tradeoff with most “shovel-ready” deals.

The permitting part is done… but you’re paying for it upfront.

Would you take on a project like this or pass?

Follow for more San Diego development breakdowns 📍

04/24/2026

Near the Trader Joes in central PB, a new development is coming that may look very similar to one right across the street.

A new 28-unit project at called “The Lamont Apartments” was built a few years ago.

It’s all 2 bed / 2 bath units over ground-floor parking + 2 commercial spaces.

Current asking rents are around $3,700/month.

Now look across the street 👇

This lot sold in 2023 for $3.15M (about 12,500 SF, commercially zoned). The owner just received demo permits to remove the existing 5,400 square foot structure.

The plan:
• 3 stories
• Ground floor: parking garage + 3 commercial units
• 2nd & 3rd floors: 14 residential units (7 per floor)

Without incentives, they could’ve only built 9 units.

But by using the Affordable Housing Density Bonus, they’re approved for 14, with 2 units reserved for very low-income residents (50% of area median income).

If they use the same unit mix of all 2 bed / 2 baths like the one that’s already built:
• The affordable units would rent for about $1,800/month or less.
• The other 12 units may lease near $3,600/month

That would be over $550,000 in projected annual residential rent on would be likely around a $9M total project.

I’m a big fan of this model that KD Development has used on several different sites in the area:

Maximize density with a desirable unit mix

- Tim Golba as the architect with great design

Stack residential over parking and retail

04/23/2026

Just one block from the waterfront, a $250M Navy SEAL museum is being proposed in downtown San Diego.

Right now, the site is made up of older, low-rise Navy buildings… but that could change into a large-scale museum project.

But this isn’t coming soon as the proposal is still very new:�• 18–24 months just for environmental review�• 3 years before construction could start�• 5-6 years before opening

This isn’t a government / taxpayer funded project either.

It’s being planned as a privately financed development led by a nonprofit, with funding expected to come primarily from donations, and potentially debt if needed.

Total projected cost is around $256M, with estimates showing it could generate about $9M in annual profit by year 10.

To transform a run-down site into a massive large museum with a sleek design, there’s a long path ahead of approvals, fundraising, and construction.

Follow for more San Diego development updates

04/09/2026

This Point Loma waterfront property is asking $9.7M for 6 units (That’s $1.6m per unit)

Here’s what’s there today:
• 6 units, mostly 2 beds�• 10 parking spaces�• Direct waterfront location�• Potential to push rents closer to $300k/year with renovations or more as a short term rental.

The broker highlights the ability to use the outdoor space for events or weddings, which could create an additional revenue stream.

There’s also mention of a potential redevelopment into luxury townhomes, which would depend on zoning, approvals, and market demand in that specific pocket.

This last sold for $2,000,000 in 2012, so a big part of the story here is long-term appreciation in a coastal location.

Would you renovate and push rents, use it for short-term rentals or event hosting, or look at a bigger redevelopment play?

Follow for more San Diego investment deal breakdowns

04/05/2026

San Diego multifamily vacancy isn’t what it was in 2021.

At the peak of the pandemic boom, vacancy dropped to around 2.7% in late 2021. Units were leasing fast and rent growth was surging.

Today, with a wave of new construction deliveries, vacancy has normalized closer to 5-6%, which is much more in line with historical averages in San Diego.

But here’s what’s interesting 👇

Not all units perform the same.

Studios and microunits often see:
• Higher turnover
• Shorter average stays
• Fewer renewals

That can mean higher vacancy and more leasing costs for owners.

Meanwhile, 2-bed and 3-bed units tend to:
• Have longer tenancy
• Higher renewal rates
• More stable occupancy

If you’re underwriting a micro-unit project, you may need to factor in:
- Higher turnover
- Higher marketing costs
- Potentially softer occupancy

A 5% market vacancy doesn’t mean every asset performs the same.

Unit mix and turnover matter.

And in a higher-supply environment, stability is valuable.

Small units can work, but the numbers need to reflect reality.

04/01/2026

Mission Hills just got a 9-story apartment building on a 10,000 SF lot.

brought 102 units into a neighborhood known for craftsman homes with the Complete Communities program.

Here’s what makes it interesting:

• 102 total units with a portion set aside as affordable
• Built on just a 10,000 SF lot
• Zoned RM3-7 with bonus density through Complete Communities
• Land was purchased for $1.5M in 2021
• $20M construction loan to make the project happen

What’s really unique here is the design…

Instead of stucco, they used a zinc facade that will naturally turn green over time, so this building will literally look different in a few years.

Other details:
• 2 levels of underground parking
• Small gym + rooftop deck
• Currently offering 8 weeks free rent

Rents are roughly:
• Studios for $2,000
• 1 beds for $3,000
• 2 beds up to ~$5,000

Follow for more San Diego development breakdowns 📍

03/29/2026

The Seaside Inn was family owned since the 1980s before selling in 2018 for $1.5M. One investor stepped in, took it down to the studs, and converted it into a 12-unit apartment complex

Now it’s a completely repositioned asset:

• 12 units: 3 studios, 8 one-beds, 1 two-bed
• Some units under 200 SF asking $1,500/month
• In-unit washer/dryers + off-street parking
• Fully renovated with major CapEx already done

It’s currently listed around $3.4M
That’s about $280K per unit at a 5% cap rate

Would you buy a building like this?

Follow for more San Diego investment deal breakdowns 📍

03/28/2026

What do you think this building is worth? 🤔

Here’s a quick way to estimate the value of this 58-unit 1920s property in Hillcrest, San Diego

Rent of $2,300 per unit X 58 Units = Roughly $133k monthly income

$133k per month X 12 Months = Roughly $1.6m annual income

40% of income allocated to vacancy + expenses / 60% of income allocated to Net Operating Income = $960k NOI

$960k NOI divided by 0.052 ( a 5.2% cap rate) = $18.5m estimated value

Property details:
• (2) penthouse 2bd/2ba
• (4) 2bd/2ba
• (35) 1bd/1ba
• (17) studios
• 11 parking spaces

Listed for $20m by Ben Sierpina and Raymond Choi of Marcus & Millichap.

03/22/2026

Park Summit is about to change the skyline in Bankers Hill 🏙️

This summer, a 21-story luxury apartment tower is opening right next to Balboa Park

Here’s the breakdown 👇
• 265 total units ranging from 700 – 1,300 square feet
• 47 extended-stay units ( furnished, high-end hotel-style living for weeks/months)
• 7 levels of podium + 4 levels of underground parking (every resident gets a spot)
• Managed by Greystar

Amenities are exactly what you’d expect at this level:
– Pool + spa deck
– Full gym
– Co-working space
– Bike storage
– 2 retail + 2 restaurant spaces on the ground floor

The site used to be a mix of surface parking + single-family homes, now it’s one of the nicest developments in the area.

No official rents have been released yet, but my estimates:
• 1 beds → $4,800/month
• 2 beds → $7,000/month

Designed by JWDA
Built by Suffolk Construction

This is an impressive step up from Floit’s usual low/mid-rise projects and a sign of where Bankers Hill is heading.

Follow for more San Diego development updates 📲

03/21/2026

Lots of real estate investors watch the Fed funds rate… but that’s not the only thing that moves multifamily prices.

Yes, interest rates matter.
But pricing is also driven by capital flows, sentiment, and macro trends.

For example:

🌍 Overseas capital

Some foreign investors aren’t chasing yield, they’re chasing safety.

If preserving wealth is the goal, they may accept a lower cap rate just to park money in U.S. real estate that won’t be seized by their government.

You can watch if foreign capital is sitting on the sidelines or rushing into US assets.

📦 Policy & trade clarity (Or war)

If tariffs get resolved or supply chains stabilize, business confidence improves. That optimism can push investors back into deals.

👷 Labor market strength

Multifamily performance depends on tenants having jobs.

When this video was recorded in late 2025, there were concerns about consumer weakness and AI-driven layoffs.

Real estate pricing is forward-looking.

It’s influenced by:
• Cost of capital
• Availability of capital
• Job or wage growth
• Global instability
• Investor psychology

Rates set the baseline.

But confidence, and where money wants to flow, often determines what people are actually willing to pay.

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92104-9210

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