Jared Kelley

06/12/2024

09/08/2023

Did I mention that we are good at doing loans!

07/09/2023

08/30/2022

What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market?
According to a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal, the percentage of economists who believe we’ll see a recession in the next 12 months is growing. When surveyed in July 2021, only 12% of economists consulted thought there’d be a recession by now. But this July, when polled, 49% believe we will see a recession in the coming 12 months.

Here’s a look at historical data to show what happened in real estate during previous recessions to help prove why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession would mean for the housing market today.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices
To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at the recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six recessions. So, historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall.

What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market?
Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession would repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t about to crash. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, don’t assume we’re heading down the same path.

A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates
Research also helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home. Historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.

Bottom Line
There’s no doubt everyone remembers what happened in the housing market in 2008. But you don’t need to fear the word recession if you’re planning to buy or sell a home. According to historical data, in most recessions, home price gains have stayed strong, and mortgage rates have declined.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, let’s connect so you have expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.

08/15/2022

If you tried to buy a home during the pandemic, you know the limited supply of homes for sale was a considerable challenge. It created intense bidding wars which drove home prices up as buyers competed with one another to be the winning offer.

But what was once your greatest challenge may now be your greatest opportunity. Today, data shows buyer demand is moderating in the wake of higher mortgage rates. It honestly feels like it did at the start of the pandemic when everything paused. With the CPI numbers that just came out showing inflation is taming, I think that we are going to see rates start to go down end of third beginning of fourth quarter. This will bring back the buyers that are on pause and competition will go up.

The Challenge
There were many reasons for the limited number of homes on the market during the pandemic, including a history of underbuilding new homes since the market crash in 2008. Housing supply is well below what the market has seen for most of the past 10 years.

If you’ve been outbid before or you’ve struggled to find a home that meets your needs, breathe a welcome sigh of relief. The big takeaway here is you have more options and less competition today. For you, that means you’ll have more options to choose from, so it shouldn’t be as difficult to find your next home as it has been recently.

Just remember, while easing, data shows multiple-offer scenarios are still happening – they’re just not as intense as they were over the past year. You should still lean on an agent to guide you through the process and help you make your strongest offer up front.

Bottom Line
If you’re still looking to make a move, it may be time to pick your home search back up today. Let’s connect to kick off the homebuying process.

08/11/2022

Whether you’re a potential homebuyer, seller, or both, you probably want to know: will home prices fall this year? Let’s break down what’s happening with home prices, where experts say they’re headed, and why this matters for your homeownership goals.

Last Year’s Rapid Home Price Growth Wasn’t the Norm
In 2021, home prices appreciated quickly. One reason why is that record-low mortgage rates motivated more buyers to enter the market. As a result, there were more people looking to make a purchase than there were homes available for sale. That led to competitive bidding wars which drove prices up. CoreLogic helps explain how unusual last year’s appreciation was:

“Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full year average of 6%.”

In other words, the pace of appreciation in 2021 far surpassed the 6% the market saw in 2020. And even that appreciation was greater than the pre-pandemic norm which was typically around 3.8%. This goes to show, 2021 was an anomaly in the housing market spurred by more buyers than homes for sale.

What Does That Mean for You?
Today, the market is beginning to move back toward pre-pandemic levels. But even the forecast for 10% home price growth in 2022 is well beyond the 3.8% that’s more typical for a normal market.

So, despite what you may have heard, experts say home prices won’t fall in most markets. They’ll just appreciate more moderately.

If you’re worried the house you’re trying to sell or the home you want to buy will decrease in value, you should know experts aren’t calling for depreciation in most markets, just deceleration. That means your home should still grow in value, just not as fast as it did last year.

Bottom Line
If you’re thinking of making a move, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Experts say nationally, prices will continue to appreciate this year, just at a more moderate pace. When you’re ready to begin the process of buying or selling, let’s connect so you have a local market expert on your side each step of the way.

07/28/2022

What the Fed is doing?? As expected, they raised their target range by 75 bps, taking the benchmark overnight borrowing rate up to a range of 2.25% - 2.5%. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation. Blah...Blah...Blah....In plain English, the Fed still must fight raising inflation but is not willing to admit that we are about to have a major economic and jobs issue as well.

What is my take: Long term Mortgage interest rates will go up a little more or stay about the same the rest of 3rd quarter. Then the Fed will switch their stance to fight a “recession” and rates will get better end of 2022 beginning of 2023. Home prices will give up any gains in 2022. Meaning if you owned a home Jan 2022 and got the 15% increase the first 6 months of the year you will effectively lose that 15% and end up back where you started at the end of the year. If you are looking to buy, now is the time to get in with as little cash as possible (seller and lender credits). If you dont care about keeping cash in your pocket; you might get a better deal later this year but those seller and lender credits might not be around so plan to pay for all of your closing costs.

If you want to make a plan or discuss your home buying / wealth building journey give me a call. 619.993.6065

03/20/2022

This guy got the game ball this weekend for batting 1000!!!