06/01/2025
Overall Market Trends
• Sellers outnumber buyers by 34% (about 490,000 more sellers than buyers)—the largest gap since at least 2013.
• Total estimates: 1.9 million home sellers vs. 1.5 million buyers in the U.S.
• Redfin predicts home prices will drop 1% by the end of 2025 due to this imbalance.
• 31 of the top 50 U.S. metros are now buyer’s markets; only 7 are seller’s markets.
Reasons for the Imbalance
• High home prices & mortgage rates (median price: $431,931; average 30-year mortgage rate: 6.73%) are discouraging buyers.
• Economic uncertainty (tariffs, layoffs, policy changes) is reducing buyer demand.
• More sellers entering the market as the “mortgage rate lock-in” effect eases (people are less reluctant to give up low pandemic-era rates).
Market Impact
• Buyer’s market: Buyers have more negotiating power; sellers must compete for fewer buyers.
• Homes are sitting longer: 44% of listings in April were on the market for 60+ days (highest since 2020).
• Many sellers are overpricing homes based on outdated market highs.
Advice for Sellers
• Sell sooner rather than later—prices may fall further.
• Consider price reductions or home improvements if your home has been on the market for over a month.
Advice for Buyers
• More negotiating power: Buyers can often get homes below list price and ask for concessions.
• Purchasing power may increase if prices fall and wages rise, even if mortgage rates stay steady.
• Still, affordability remains a challenge for many Americans.
Regional Highlights
• Strongest buyer’s markets: Miami, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Austin, Jacksonville, Tampa, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Orlando, Nashville.
• Example: Miami has nearly 3 sellers for every buyer.
• Many of these are in Florida and Texas, where homebuilding has boomed.
• Condo market is especially tilted toward buyers: 83% more condo sellers than buyers.
• Single-family homes: 28% more sellers than buyers.
• Strongest seller’s market: Newark, NJ (47% fewer sellers than buyers; prices up 12.2% year-over-year).
• Most balanced market: St. Louis, MO (almost equal numbers of buyers and sellers).
Historical Context
• Last time sellers outnumbered buyers: 2018, when mortgage rates jumped.
• Price growth slows or reverses when sellers outnumber buyers.
• Current imbalance is larger than previous cycles, suggesting more downward pressure on prices.
Bottom line:
The U.S. housing market has shifted in favor of buyers for the first time in years, with inventory piling up and prices expected to soften. Sellers should act quickly, while buyers have more options and bargaining power than they’ve had in a long time.
