02/26/2026
Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Update
February 12, 2026
According to data from the County Recorder’s Office by way of Fidelity National Title, the number of residential property sales on the Santa Barbara South Coast decreased by 8% in January 2026, with only 90 sales as compared with January 2025. Of these 90 sales, there were 64 House or Planned Unit Developments (PUDs) sales, down from 70 in January 2025; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $2,300,716, down 20% from 2025, and the average sale price was $3,078,168, down 36% from 2025. Of these 90 sales, there were 26 Condominium sales in January 2026, down from 28 in January 2025; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $862,500, down 14% from 2025, and the average sale price was $1,118,841, down 29% from 2025.
Carpinteria had 12 residential sales in January 2026, up from 11 in December. There were 3 House/PUD sales, down from 8 in December; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $1,550,000, and the average price was $1,850,000. There were 9 Condominium sales, up from 3 in December; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $720,000 and the average sale price was $861,167. In January 2026, the lowest-priced Carpinteria sale was a Condominium on Jacaranda Way @ $500,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Callejon @ $3,300,000.
Summerland had only 1 residential sale in January 2026, the same number as in December. The only sale was a House on Ortega Ridge Road @ $7,500,000.
Montecito had 9 residential sales in January 2026, down from 11 in December. There were 8 House/PUD sales, down from 9 in December; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $5,525,000, and the average and median sales price of this one sale was $2,139,000. In January 2026, the lowest-priced Montecito sale was a Condominium on Plaza de Sonadores @ $2,139,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Rametto Road @ $12,788,125.
Santa Barbara had 46 residential sales in January 2026, up from 44 in December. There were 33 House/PUD sales, up from 26 in December; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $2,450,000, and the average price was $2,850,000. There were 13 Condominium sales, down from 18 in December; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $1,225,000 and the average sale price was $1,381,538. In January 2026, the lowest-priced Santa Barbara sale was a Condominium on Miradero Drive @ $750,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Spyglass Ridge Road @ $7,795,000.
There were no sales in Hope Ranch in January 2026, down from 1 in December.
Goleta had 22 residential sales in January 2026, down from 34 in December. There were 19 House/PUD sales, down from 25 in December; the median sale price of these House/PUD sales was $1,550,000, and the average price was $1,835,342. There were 3 Condominium sales, down from 9 in December; the median sale price of these Condominium sales was $711,000 and the average sale price was $710,333. In January 2026, the lowest-priced Goleta sale was a Condominium on Dearborn Place @ $560,000, and the highest-priced sale was a House on Camino Del Retiro @ $4,675,000.
Analysis
As of February 1st in the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service (MLS), there were 178 available House/PUD listings (up from 147 on January 1st) and 53 available Condominium listings (up from 46 on January 1st) along the Santa Barbara South Coast. The lack of housing inventory available for sale has loosened up a bit since last year, but it has continued to put upward pressure on housing values. Compare our current supply levels to the years 2007 through 2011, when the total number of available listings for Buyers to choose from fluctuated between 734 and 1,026. Historically, the highest number of available listings along the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in June 1992, when there were an amazing 1,297 available!
While the number of days that listings stay on the market before entering escrow has risen, the competition among Buyers creating bidding wars has also diminished, although it has not totally disappeared. According to the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales data, there were a total of 75 residential sales in January on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, down from 91 in December. The County Recorder reported 90 total sales in January, indicating that 15 private sales did not register in the MLS. Of the 75 MLS sales, 15% closed above the original asking price (the same percentage as in December), 17% closed at the original asking price (down from 19% in December), and 68% closed for less than the original asking price (up from 66% in December). After analyzing the January sales data, there were 5 listings (up from 4 in December) which sold $100,000+ over their original asking prices; these listings were San Miguel Avenue which sold $326,432 over asking price, Via Los Padres which sold $200,000 over asking, N. San Marcos Road which sold $111,500 over asking, Winding Way which sold $105,000 over asking, and Celine Drive which sold $100,000 over asking. Nationally, the percentage of sales over the asking price has hovered around 28% as compared to the South Coast of Santa Barbara's 17% January ratio. If you think Buyer competition is high in Santa Barbara, data from Silicon Valley indicate that 22 properties sold for $200,000+ above their list prices in December! Two of those properties snagged an extra $600,000 in that rebalancing market. Multiple offers are still common in the Silicon Valley.
Speaking of inventory levels, according to Danielle Hale’s Housing Market Update February 5th article: “Regionally, the West led the U.S. in inventory growth (+12.2%), followed by the Midwest (+10.3%) and the South (+10.1%), with the Northeast once again bringing up the rear (+6.6%). At the metro level, 46 of the nation's largest housing markets logged annual gains in active listings, but a trio of cities stood out for recording the largest spikes. Seattle was ahead of the pack in January, with the metro's inventory climbing 32.4% from the same period in 2025. Charlotte, NC, experienced the second-sharpest increase in active listings year over year, at 28.6%, with Washington, DC, in third, at 26.8%.” As a comparison, as of February 1st Santa Barbara had only a 6% increase in active listings year over year, so inventory is still tight. https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/top-metros-home-inventory-increase-january-2026/?
Of the 90 residential sales in January 2026, 70 sold over $1,000,000, which equates to 78% of the total sales, down from 84% December. The South Coast of Santa Barbara is not an inexpensive place to purchase real estate compared to other areas of the United States, but many people will pay more to live in Santa Barbara. According to Property Shark’s survey, California had 7 of the 10 most expensive median-priced ZIP codes in the United States. Montecito’s 93108 ZIP code came in at #5 with a median sale price of $6,995,000. The #1 spot is held by Fisher Island (off the coast of Miami) where the median sale price is $11,925,000, which is 27 times higher than the U.S. median sale price. https://www.propertyshark.com/Real-Estate-Reports/most-expensive-zip-codes-in-the-us/
Another verification of Santa Barbara’s popularity, no matter the cost, the New York Post’s survey ranked the most expensive cities in the US to visit as a tourist and the winner is #1 Aspen where a three-day trip for two costs $2,708! Closely followed is #2 Santa Barbara where a three-day trip for two costs $2,446! Filling out the top five on the list were Anchorage, Bar Harbor, and Fairbanks. The last ( #55) on the list and the least expensive tourist destination for vacationers was Clearwater where a three-day trip for two costs $1,630, 40% less than Aspen. https://nypost.com/2025/07/04/lifestyle/most-expensive-tourist-destinations-in-the-us-in-2025/
Another reason Santa Barbara is so sought after is its local educational system as University of California Santa Barbara ranked as #91 out of 2,250 universities worldwide, and Santa Barbara City College ranked #1 out of the 116 Community Colleges in California.
https://www.usnews.com/education/best-global-universities/rankings and
https://bold.org/blog/best-community-colleges-in-california/
At their January 28th meeting, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) pushed the pause button on its interest rate cuts, leaving its key rate unchanged at about 3.6% after lowering it three times last year. Most policymakers do expect the Fed to reduce borrowing costs further this year, but not until June. Many want to see evidence that stubbornly elevated inflation is moving closer to the central bank’s target of 2%. Chairperson Jerome Powell said at a news conference that the economy’s outlook “has clearly improved since the last meeting” in December, a development that should boost hiring over time. One issue still overhanging the Fed’s decision-making is the Trump administration’s trade policy and the tariffs it has imposed on many U.S. trade partners. When asked if the impact of tariffs had already moved through inflation, Powell said “a lot of it has,” and added that the Fed generally sees the import taxes as a one-time price increase. Powell noted that while consumers are gloomy in surveys, they are still spending at a healthy pace, helping propel the economy.
Since the beginning of 2022, 30-year mortgage interest rates have doubled, but started easing downward in 2024, and are now 6.10% as of February 1st 2026. Historically, the lowest 30-year mortgage interest rate since 1970 was recorded in February 2021 at 2.65% and that low rate was matched in July 2021 during the COVID pandemic. If Buyers are expecting 3% or even low 5% mortgage rates to return to buy a home, they are waiting for an anomaly and should wait no longer. The highest historical 30-year fixed-rate interest rate was recorded in 1981 @ 18.63%. The average 30-year mortgage rate over the last 50 years has been 7.74%, so current rates are still well below that average. Mortgage rates of 8.03% in October 2023 were at a 23-year high following all-time lows reached just three years before, highlighting the effect that financing costs have on the housing market. A $913,100 loan in 1981 would have been $13,423/ month, the payment in June 2021 would have been $3,679/month, and now, as of February 1st, that payment would be $5,533/month. As an alternative to obtaining a mortgage, in January 2026, 39% of South Coast Buyers purchased in cash, up from 33% in December.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is designed to gauge and track the pulse of the single-family housing market. The HMI is based on a monthly survey of single-family builders who are asked to rate three specific conditions of the housing market. With this data, each month the HMI depicts overall builder sentiment toward housing market conditions on a scale ranging between 0 and 100. A higher reading (>50) is an indication that the majority of builders feel confident about the current and near-term outlook for housing. Lower readings signify less optimism among builders. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 37.0 in January 2026, down from 39.0 in December and below market expectations of 40.0. This marked the weakest reading in three months, signaling continued challenges in the US housing market. Builder sentiment deteriorated across all components of the index. Current sales conditions edged down by one point to 41, while sales expectations for the next six months declined three points to 49. Traffic of prospective buyers also weakened, falling three points to 23. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index
As for the worldwide cost of living as of February 1st, Expatistan compiled an index of 108 major worldwide metropolitan areas. According to the index in the United States (and the world) the most expensive area to live in is #1 New York City with a @ 243 Price Index score (the least expensive gallon of regular gas costs $2.63/gallon in New York). The least expensive in the United States is #87 Cedar Rapids, Iowa @ 82 ($2.43/gallon). The lowest State average gas price in the United States is $2.40/gallon in Oklahoma. Of the top 25 most expensive areas on the worldwide list, two are in California: #5 San Francisco @ 202 ($3.69/gallon) and #11 San Diego @ 173 ($3.55/gallon). According to the index, the least expensive area to live in the world is #108 Yogyakarta (Indonesia) @ 32 ($2.66/gallon). Gas prices on the South Coast are as low as $4.05/gallon and are generally lower than in other California coastal areas. Some Santa Barbara stations near the 101 Freeway exit ramps are charging up to $5.59/gallon. According to AAA, the average cost of a gallon of gas in California is $4.34/gallon, while the National average is $2.87/gallon. Expatistan’s Cost of Living Index is an interesting way to compare the cost of living in cities around the world. https://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/index
On January 27th the Conference Board noted that its consumer confidence index cratered 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, falling below even the lowest readings during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in January to 84.5 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December. January’s preliminary results showed confidence resumed declining after a one-month uptick. “Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths. Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.” https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
Historically, the highest Year-to-Date median sale price on the Santa Barbara South Coast was recorded in 2007 at $1,031,500, but that high mark is now ancient history. The median sale price of all residential 2026 sales Year-To-Date as of February 1st was $1,785,000, down 5% from 2025 and the average sales price was $2,512,036. While the median sale price had been hovering near 2007’s historic high for most of 2017, 2018, and 2019, it started its upward climb in 2020, accelerating in 2021 and into the first half of 2022 before leveling off throughout and declining 1% in 2023. There have been no double-digit price increases in the median sales price since a 17% increase in 2020, 24% in 2021 and 15% in 2022. The current 5% decrease in the median sales price has not been this high since a 10% decrease in 2011.
Based on the Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data, as of February 1st in the City of Santa Barbara, there were 70 active House/PUD listings (up from 52 on January 1st) and 33 pending sales (up from 24 on January 1st) which equates to a 2.1-month supply (down from 2.2 on January 1st) of listings for Buyers to choose from in the City of Santa Barbara. Generally, a 1-month supply would indicate the listings would be sold within one month. A less than 1-month supply of inventory suggests a feverish Seller’s market, a 1-to-2-month supply indicates a heated Seller’s market, and a 2-to-4-month supply would be considered a basic Seller’s market where Buyer demand is still high, and inventory is scarce. Historically, a 4-to-6-month supply of available inventory would indicate a fairly Balanced, normal market between Buyers and Sellers. More than a 6-month supply is considered a Buyer’s market where inventory is plentiful, with Buyers being slower to make decisions as they compare the numerous properties on the market. Based on Santa Barbara Multiple Listing Service data as of February 1st, Carpinteria/Summerland has a 2.2-month supply (the same as on January 1st), Montecito has a 5.1-month supply (down from 5.3 on January 1st), Hope Ranch has a 9.5-month supply (down from 16 on January 1st), and Goleta has a 1.8-month supply (the same as on January 1st). Carpinteria/Summerland remains in a Basic Seller’s market. Montecito remains in a Balanced market. Santa Barbara remains in a Basic Seller’s market. Hope Ranch remains far into a Buyer’s market. Goleta remains in a Heated Seller’s market. With a combined total of 68 House/PUD pending sales (up from 53 on January 1st) and 178 active listings (down from 147 on January 1st) along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County, there is a 2.6-month supply (down from 2.8 on January 1st) of House/PUD listings from which Buyers can choose. By removing the 60 higher-valued House/PUD listings in Montecito and Hope Ranch and their 10 pending sales from the equation, there is only a 2-month supply (down from 2.1 on January 1st) from which Buyers can choose along the South Coast of Santa Barbara County. With a combined total of 29 Condominium pending sales (up from 27 on January 1st) and 53 active listings (up from 46 on January 1st), there is a 1.8-month supply (up from 1.7 on January 1st) of Condominium listings from which Buyers can choose.
There are many concerns for Buyers and Sellers. These include the war in Ukraine, continuing tensions in the Middle East, continued worldwide geopolitical tensions, inflation, insurance premium volatility, mortgage interest rates, health insurance rates, President Trump’s on-and-off-again tariffs, continuing repercussions of the government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and how other administration economic policies are confusing to our trading partners. Also, a major concern for Buyers and Sellers is the scarcity and cost of homeowners’ insurance coverage, especially since State Farm, Nationwide, Kemper, Marine America, Trans-Pacific, Allstate and others have refused to issue new policies in California and are not renewing existing home insurance policies. Farmers Insurance has been restricting the number of new policies it offers since July 2023, but recently removed the cap on the number of new policies it will issue, but insurance still remains very expensive as compared to years past.
California’s Proposition 19 allows homeowners aged 55+ to transfer their existing real estate tax base to a home anywhere in the State; this newer law may encourage some older Sellers who wish to sell their current homes and downsize. The imbalance between Santa Barbara’s low housing supply and high demand is more pronounced than in most national cities, so over the years, there has been a surge in local property values. While market corrections may still negatively impact property values on the Santa Barbara South Coast, the impact is expected to be less severe compared to many other areas in the state and country. New 2026 listings may have remained on the market a bit longer than in 2024 and 2025, but they continue to sell. Home values in the Santa Barbara South Coast Real Estate Market continue to be supported by supply and demand dynamics due to our current market’s persistent low listing inventory; pre-pandemic House/PUD active listings in February 2020 totaled 366, and now, as of February 1st, there are only 231 active listings, which is 37% lower than in 2020.
Review the attached list of the 90 properties sold on the Santa Barbara South Coast in January 2026, and contact me for information on specific sales in our area.
Happy 2026 to All!
Stan Tabler, CRS, GRI, ABR, GREEN
Compass
801 Chapala Street
Santa Barbara, CA 93101
805.689.2305
[email protected]
http://www.stantabler.com
CalBRE Brokers License #00774377 since 1980
