10/07/2022
If you have time to READ!
Inventory rose for the second week in a row last week. The rise was less than 1% but the increase is notable. We are now up to just shy of 557,000 active single family homes across the country.
The inventory rise is not due to more sellers coming to market, it is due to the further declining demand due to higher rates.
Inventory is 27% higher than 2021 and 34% lower than in 2019.
New listings have had a slight increase for the past couple of weeks but are running lower than every year going back through 2017. In June and July you can see where there was a large increase and then in August new listings dropped significantly.
85% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 3.5%.
Demand:
For the third month in a row pending home sales declined. They are down 2% from July to August and are down 24% in August year over year.
For the seventh month in a row, existing home sales were down month over month. August sales were down 0.4% from July and 19.9% from one year ago.
Monthly inventory is up to 2.9 months in September from last year’s one month of inventory.
Builder confidence drops to the lowest level in 8 years, to a score of 46, last seen in May 2014. New construction is even more rate sensitive than resales. Below 50 is considered a declining market.
Prices:
According to NAR, the median sales price in August was $389,500; down 5.9% from the peak in June ($413,800) and down 3.5% from July.
For the second month in a row, Zillow drops its national home value estimates. Zillow last saw home values fall this much in 2011.
Price reductions are accelerating, they increased by about 1/2% last week to 41.2%. The rate of increase of price reductions slowed in August but have sped up over the past few weeks.
