09/27/2017
DAILY OBSERVATIONS BY MICHAEL ORR - SEPTEMBER 19-20
POSTED: 09/20/2017 UPDATED: 6 DAYS AGO 0
Daily Observations by Michael Orr - September 19-20
September 20 - For Pinal County, the single-family market has seen almost as big a percentage drop in supply as the Southeast Valley over the last 12 months. Active listings are down 16% and down 23% for homes priced under $250,000. The market for homes over $500,000 is tiny in Pinal County, but we have seen an 11% decline in supply from 105 to 93 in the last 12 months. Mid-range supply has been healthier moving up 5% from 391 to 409 listings.
The overall quarterly sales rate is fairly stable, up just 4% from the same time last year. However the mid range has grown 39% while the bottom end has declined 2% and the high end has fallen14%.
Overall appreciation is a very strong 10.5% but almost all of that is generated by the price range under $250,000.The mid range is up only 3.8% and the homes over $500,000 actually lost 0.2%.
September 19 - In the Southeast Valley, active listing counts for single-family homes have dropped much more than the areas we discussed over the last few days. The annual change is -17% with even the highest priced range (over $500,000) down 11%. Listings under $250,000 are down a massive 40% since September 2016.
With this loss of supply, the quarterly sales rate has struggled to rise higher than last year and we are seeing only a 0.5% increase overall. The best price range for sales growth is over $500,000 which has seen a 30% increase from 377 to 490 for the 3 month period June through August. The mid-range from $250,000 to $500,000 has performed reasonably well with a 15% increase in sales from 3,292 to 3,797. The dismal supply below $250,000 has resulted in sales collapsing by 24% from 2,494 to 1,905.
As of September 1, 2017, there were only 22 days of inventory for homes under $250,000. As you might expect, these lower priced homes have appreciated at the fastest rate, namely 7.5% while those over $500,000 have only increased by 0.4% on a price per sq. ft. basis. The mid-range is rising more quickly at 5.6% per year.