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Week of March 27, 2023 Review
Consumer inflation is trending lower in the right direction, while data shows the housing market is stronger than media reports suggest. Here are last week's highlights:
Annual Consumer Inflation Continues to Move Lower
Signed Contracts Show Housing Is Standing Strong
Media Cries Housing Crash but Appreciation Data Says Otherwise
Significance of Elevated Continuing Jobless Claims
What Do GDP Forecasts Signal?

Annual Consumer Inflation Continues to Move Lower
The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed that headline inflation increased 0.3% in February, while the year-over-year reading fell from 5.3% to 5%.

Signed Contracts Show Housing Is Standing Strong
Pending Home Sales rose 0.8% from January to February, which was much stronger than expectations and marks the third straight month of increases.

Media Cries Housing Crash but Appreciation Data Says Otherwise
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is considered the "gold standard" for appreciation, showed home prices declined 0.5% from December to January but they were 3.8% higher when compared to January 2022.

Significance of Elevated Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time rose by 7,000 in the latest week, as 198,000 Initial Jobless Claims were reported.

What Do GDP Forecasts Signal?
The final reading of fourth quarter 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed that the U.S. economy grew by 2.6%, which is a downward revision from the first (2.9%) and second (2.7%) readings.
What to Look for This Week
The latest data from the labor sector will be front and center, starting Wednesday with ADP's Employment Report, which will give us an update on private payrolls for March. The latest Jobless Claims data will be reported on Thursday while Friday brings the Bureau of Labor Statistics Jobs Report for March, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

We'll also see an update on the manufacturing sector when the ISM Index is reported on Monday.

03/27/2023

Market News

March 20, 2023 Review

The Fed hiked its benchmark Fed Funds Rate despite ongoing turbulence in the banking sector, while both new and existing home sales beat expectations last month. Don't miss these stories and more:
Fed Hikes Rates Another 25 Basis Points
Existing Home Sales Strong Despite Media Reports
Signed Contracts on New Homes Rise for Third Consecutive Month
Jobless Claims Reflect Tight Labor Market
Decline in Demand for Big-Ticket Items

Fed Hikes Rates Another 25 Basis Points
The Fed hiked its benchmark Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at its meeting last Wednesday, marking the ninth hike since last March and bringing it to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
Existing Home Sales Strong Despite Media Reports
Existing Home Sales rose 14.5% from January to February to a 4.58 million unit annualized pace, per the National Association of Realtors (NAR), coming in much stronger than estimates and ending twelve consecutive months of declines.
Signed Contracts on New Homes Rise for Third Consecutive Month
New Home Sales, which measure signed contracts on new homes, rose 1.1% in February to a 640,000-unit annualized pace.
Jobless Claims Reflect Tight Labor Market
Initial Jobless Claims were flat in the latest week, as the number of first-time filers declined by 1,000 to 191,000.
Decline in Demand for Big-Ticket Items
Durable Goods Orders fell 1% in February, coming in much worse than expectations, while January's report was also revised to the downside.

What to Look for This Week

More housing news is ahead, starting with Tuesday's release of home price appreciation data for January from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. Pending Home Sales for February will be reported on Wednesday.

Look for the latest Jobless Claims data along with the final reading for fourth quarter 2022 GDP on Thursday. Friday brings February's reading for the Fed's favored inflation measure, Personal Consumption Expenditures.

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