Chelsea Derby PLLC - Scottsdale, Arizona Realtor

Chelsea Derby PLLC - Scottsdale, Arizona Realtor Top 1% Realtor in Arizona. Brokerage owner - The Avenue Collective

15 Days of Data: What It All MeansOver the past 15 days, we've covered the Phoenix market from every angle. If you misse...
08/23/2026

15 Days of Data: What It All Means

Over the past 15 days, we've covered the Phoenix market from every angle. If you missed it, here's the whole story in five numbers:

$485K — Phoenix median sold price, up a modest, healthy 2.1% year over year. Stability, not chaos.

~80 — the Cromford Market Index entering 2026. Buyer-favorable conditions insiders call the best opportunity in years.

65.6% — share of Phoenix-area sales including seller concessions. The deal is negotiable far beyond the price.

65 — average days on market, faster than last year. Leverage exists, but good homes don't wait forever.

35,411 — new Maricopa County residents in one year. The long-term demand story is intact.

Put together: a rare window where buyers hold real negotiating power in a market whose long-term fundamentals remain strong — and where sellers who play 2026 rules are still closing quickly and well.

Markets reward people who act on data over headlines. That's the entire philosophy behind how we work at The Avenue Collective.

If anything in this series made you think "I should probably have a conversation" — that conversation is free, and it starts with a DM. Let's talk about your move. 🏡

The Market Is Moving Faster Than You ThinkHere's the stat that surprises people most when I share it:Phoenix homes are s...
08/22/2026

The Market Is Moving Faster Than You Think

Here's the stat that surprises people most when I share it:

Phoenix homes are selling FASTER than they were a year ago — 65 days on market versus 70 last July.

Wait. Isn't this supposed to be a slow market?

This is why single narratives fail. Yes, buyers have leverage (Day 3). Yes, concessions are everywhere (Day 4). AND well-priced homes are moving quicker than last year, with closed sales up 8.1%.

All of those things are true at once. Here's how they fit together:

Serious buyers are active — they're just disciplined. When a home is priced to the data and presented well, it sells briskly. When it's priced to nostalgia, it sits and funds the neighbors' comps.

The market isn't slow. It's efficient. It's rewarding accuracy and punishing wishful thinking — on both sides of the transaction.

For buyers, that means good homes still require decisiveness; leverage is not the same as unlimited time. For sellers, it means the market will tell you the truth about your price within 14 days. Plan accordingly.

Efficiency favors the prepared. Whichever side you're on, preparation is my department.

Why Fall Might Be Your Smartest WindowEveryone wants to buy in spring. That's precisely the problem with buying in sprin...
08/21/2026

Why Fall Might Be Your Smartest Window

Everyone wants to buy in spring. That's precisely the problem with buying in spring.

Here's what the fall market in Phoenix typically offers instead — and why this particular fall looks compelling:

Less competition. Families anchored by school calendars exit the market, and listings that didn't sell in summer come with motivated sellers watching their days-on-market climb.

More negotiating room. We're already in a market where most mid-range deals include concessions. Add seasonal urgency and year-end goals, and flexibility increases further.

Real selection. New listings are running ahead of last year, so fall shoppers aren't picking from leftovers.

And in the Valley specifically? Fall is when our weather turns spectacular and the snowbird demand wave hasn't fully landed yet. That in-between window is quietly one of the best times to transact all year.

If a 2026 purchase is even a maybe for you, the groundwork — pre-approval, search criteria, neighborhood shortlist — should be happening now, in August. Buyers who show up prepared in October eat first.

Want a fall game plan? Let's build one this month.

Sellers: Concessions Aren't a Loss. They're a Tool.Sellers, let's reframe something.When my clients hear that a majority...
08/20/2026

Sellers: Concessions Aren't a Loss. They're a Tool.

Sellers, let's reframe something.

When my clients hear that a majority of mid-range Phoenix closings now include seller concessions, the first reaction is usually a wince. Don't wince. Strategize.

A smart concession often nets you MORE than the alternative:

A $10K rate buydown can motivate a buyer more than a $15K price cut — because it attacks their real pain point: the monthly payment. A pre-listing inspection with repairs done removes the renegotiation ambush at day 20. Offering closing cost help can widen your buyer pool to include well-qualified first-timers who are cash-tight but payment-strong.

Meanwhile, the price on the closing statement — the one that becomes the neighborhood comp — stays stronger.

The sellers struggling in this market are the ones pretending it's 2021. The sellers winning are playing 2026 rules: strategic pricing, sharp presentation, and concessions deployed as offense, not defense.

This is exactly the strategy work I do before your home ever hits the MLS.

If a fall or winter sale is on your radar, the planning conversation should happen now. Message me — I'll bring your neighborhood's actual closing data.

There Are More Sellers Than Buyers in America Right NowA national stat worth sitting with: there are roughly 47% more ho...
08/19/2026

There Are More Sellers Than Buyers in America Right Now

A national stat worth sitting with: there are roughly 47% more home sellers than active buyers in the U.S. right now (Redfin).

Nationally, 46.2% of spring sales included seller concessions — the highest spring rate since tracking began in 2019. Phoenix runs even higher, at 65.6%.

What I take from this as a Valley agent:

For buyers — this is structural leverage, not a fluke. When sellers outnumber buyers, professionalism and preparation win deals on YOUR terms.

For sellers — you're not competing against 2021's feeding frenzy; you're competing against the other 10 listings your buyer is touring this weekend. Presentation, pricing, and strategy aren't optional anymore. They're the whole game.

And for both: national numbers set the weather, but your zip code sets the forecast (remember Day 7 — parts of Arcadia are still firmly a seller's market).

Markets like this reward people who work with someone watching the data weekly, not quarterly.

Whichever side of the table you're on, I'd love to show you what the numbers say about your specific situation. No pitch — just the data.

35,000 New Neighbors: The Long GameMaricopa County added 35,411 residents last year — even in a slower-growth year, that...
08/18/2026

35,000 New Neighbors: The Long Game

Maricopa County added 35,411 residents last year — even in a slower-growth year, that's a mid-sized city's worth of new neighbors annually.

For a decade, Maricopa has ranked among the fastest-growing counties in America. Growth has cooled from the 2021–22 frenzy, but the fundamentals that drew people here haven't changed: jobs, sunshine, relative affordability vs. coastal metros, and massive semiconductor and tech investment still coming online.

Why does this matter if you're buying or selling a house this year?

Because population growth is the slow, boring force that underwrites long-term home values. Demand for housing here isn't speculative — it walks through the door every day with a moving truck.

Short term, we have a balanced-to-buyer-friendly market (see Day 3). Long term, the Valley keeps adding people faster than it adds homes in the neighborhoods people most want to live in.

That combination — short-term leverage, long-term demand — is historically when patient money does its best work.

If you're thinking in 5–10 year horizons, not 5–10 month ones, this market deserves your attention. Let's talk strategy.

The New-Construction Plot TwistSomething is happening in new construction that we've seen only a handful of times in dec...
08/17/2026

The New-Construction Plot Twist

Something is happening in new construction that we've seen only a handful of times in decades:

The median new-build home is now priced BELOW the median resale home.

Historically, new homes carried a 10–15% premium. Today? About 40% of builders have cut prices (averaging ~5%), and nearly two-thirds are stacking on incentives — with mortgage rate buydowns leading the list.

For Valley buyers, that changes the shopping list. A builder-paid buydown can do more for your monthly payment than a modest price cut ever could. Add closing cost help and upgrade credits, and new construction deserves a serious look — even if you'd written it off before.

Two things to know, though:

The builder's sales office works for the builder. You're entitled to your own representation — at no cost to you. And incentives vary wildly between communities, phases, and even lots. The advertised deal is rarely the best available deal.

I track which Valley builders are offering what, and I negotiate on your side of the table.

House-hunting and haven't compared new vs. resale side by side? Let's build that comparison for your budget.

Sellers: The First 14 Days Decide EverythingWith homes averaging 65 days on market in Phoenix, here's the uncomfortable ...
08/16/2026

Sellers: The First 14 Days Decide Everything

With homes averaging 65 days on market in Phoenix, here's the uncomfortable truth about that number:

The homes that sell fast are priced right on day one. The homes that sit... are usually still paying for a week-one pricing mistake months later.

Buyer attention peaks the moment you list. Your listing hits every saved search in your price band in the first 72 hours. Miss that window with an aspirational price, and you're no longer marketing to excited new buyers — you're negotiating with bargain hunters who can see your days-on-market count.

In this market, chasing the price down ("let's try high and reduce later") is the most expensive strategy there is. Data shows well-priced homes are still selling faster than last year — sales are UP 8.1% year over year. Buyers are active. They're just informed.

The winning formula in 2026: price to the last 90 days of comps (not 2022 memories), present turnkey condition, and build concession strategy into the plan from the start — because a majority of deals now include one.

Thinking of listing this fall? Let's look at what homes like yours actually closed for in the last 60 days. The number might surprise you — in either direction.

Two Zip Codes, One Mile Apart, Opposite MarketsWant proof that headlines can't tell you what YOUR home is worth?Arcadia ...
08/15/2026

Two Zip Codes, One Mile Apart, Opposite Markets

Want proof that headlines can't tell you what YOUR home is worth?

Arcadia (85018): median around $1.55M, up 1.8% year over year. Homes take ~74 days to sell, but prices are holding firm. Still a seller's market.

One zip west (85008): typical home around $379K, down slightly year over year — and 63.5% of June sales closed below list price. Clearly a buyer's market.

Same city. Minutes apart. Completely different negotiating dynamics.

This is why "how's the market?" is impossible to answer honestly in one sentence — and why national headlines are almost useless for your specific decision. Phoenix isn't one market. It's dozens of micro-markets moving at different speeds, sometimes in different directions.

Whether you're pricing a home for sale or writing an offer, the only data that matters is the data for your street, your school district, your price band.

That hyper-local analysis is exactly what I do before any client conversation.

Curious which way your neighborhood is moving? Comment your zip code or send it to me privately — I'll pull the real numbers for you.

Renting vs. Buying in Phoenix: The Honest VersionMedian rent in Phoenix: about $1,728/month.To rent comfortably here, yo...
08/14/2026

Renting vs. Buying in Phoenix: The Honest Version

Median rent in Phoenix: about $1,728/month.

To rent comfortably here, you need roughly $69K in income. To buy the median home, about $116K. That gap — nearly 68% — is one of the widest in the country.

So am I about to tell you renting is throwing money away? No. Renting buys flexibility, and for some seasons of life, flexibility is worth every penny.

But here's what the monthly-payment comparison hides:

Your rent is 100% interest — none of it comes back. A mortgage payment is part interest, part forced savings you'll see again. Rent follows the market up; a fixed payment doesn't. And every year you own in a growing metro, appreciation compounds quietly in the background.

The real question isn't "rent vs. buy." It's "what does MY five-year picture look like either way?" That answer depends on your income, your timeline, your down payment, and which zip code you're shopping.

That's a 30-minute conversation, not a rule of thumb.

If you're renting in the Valley and wondering whether the math has shifted for you — reach out. I'll run both scenarios, no strings attached.

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