04/06/2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET IN 60 SECONDS
Early results from the residential resale market are indicating a very big year; maybe record setting. For starters, the listing success rate reached 84.1%. The highest reading since July of 2005 at the beginning of the last run-up or bubble. This compares properties that successfully sold in the month to the total sold, canceled, or expired in the month. For reference, the listing success rate in 2008 during the free-fall to 2011 was 20.4%. Conclusion; good news for sellers and not so good for buyers.
More good news for sellers is 17% of the closed sales are at prices above the listing price. In contrast, no homes over $1M sold above list price, obviously due to inventory quantity and quality in this price range. Median price is up 8.7% year-over-year (YOY). Active listings are down 14.2% YOY while sales are up 8.9% YOY creating further upward pressure on price with falling inventory, resulting in the month’s supply of properties dropping to 2.9 months.
Also, interesting to note, there are more multi-family permits being issued than for new single-family homes. Tempe for example, which is land-locked, has almost no new single-family product as everything has shifted to multi-family. Phoenix leads the market with 4,500 multi-family permits.
Even with the steady and robust recovery of home prices resulting in a rebuilding of homeowner equity, most areas still have 10%-30% additional appreciation before reaching the 2006 peak. On the flip side, some areas have now exceeded the peak with Old Town Scottsdale (85251) up 7.9% above peak and South Scottsdale (85257) 4.3% above peak. No bubble or super-hot price escalation based on current statistics and further supported by the average S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index appreciation index for Metro Phoenix at 5.9% for November YOY (a lagging indicator) just below the 6.2% national average.
The luxury market over $500k, is also showing positive signs of improvement as luxury demand has strengthened even as the market remains significantly over supplied. Closings are up an average of 25% YOY with sales up most between $1 million and $2 million increasing 37%. The supply is also down 4% YOY above $500k, but 2% up in the $1M-$2M for active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS). Price is also improving in this market segment with a 5% increase in the YOY $/SF value. Further good news here is the days of inventory has declined 18% going from 9.4 months to 7.7 months’ supply.
real estate representation for buyers and sellers. Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley