09/17/2026
What is IT, NOW!
There is a creator on TikTok I enjoy who starts his stitches that way, “What is IT, NOW!” Lately, every time I look at what is happening with the economy, I hear his voice in my head.
Let me provide my best disclaimer. I am not an economist, I am not a financial advisor, you get the picture. Credentials? I don’t got them. I also find financial news disgustingly boring on almost every level. It’s a dirty job, but someone has to do it, and unfortunately my profession requires me to pay attention.
Money is an interesting thing. If you ever want to see the difference between what feels right and what is perfectly legal, go back and watch the 2016 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. This is not an opportunity to tell me which one you like or dislike. That isn’t my point. Listen to the conversation about taxes and the rules surrounding money. There are rules, people learn the rules, and people with enough money generally hire really smart people to understand every inch of those rules.
There is a great line from Watchmen: “Who watches the watchmen?” Then go watch Goodfellas. Organized crime takes over a business, uses everything of value and, when it no longer serves them, disposes of what is left. Every once in a while I look at private equity buying a company, loading it up, splitting it apart and selling off the pieces and think, huh, that looks vaguely familiar. Except, of course, one has attorneys and paperwork.
Anyway, back to the boring stuff.
Inflation is running at 3.4%. Mortgage rates are hovering around 7%. Oil is around $100 a barrel. Our national debt is approaching $40 trillion and, wait for it...drumroll please...the Federal Reserve raised interest rates another quarter point yesterday.
Welcome to the s**t show.
Why do I depress myself by paying attention to all of this?
Because eventually I am going to sit across from a young family, a retiree, someone relocating, someone getting divorced, a first-time homebuyer, or someone who has spent the last 30 years working and is trying to figure out retirement. They aren't going to ask me about monetary policy. They are going to ask me a much more direct question.
Todd, is now a good time to buy a house?
Yes. Maybe. No.
Yes, if you have the money, you're established in your career, you have reserves, you're reasonably confident you're going to stay put for a while and the house fits comfortably into your life. If you're approaching retirement, I also want to know that buying this house isn't consuming the money you're depending upon to fund that retirement. Most importantly, you need to be able to afford the payment you're agreeing to today. Not the payment somebody tells you that you might have if rates come down and you refinance. If that happens, fantastic. But I'm not going to build your financial future around something neither one of us controls.
Maybe, if you can make the payment but it is going to require some adjustment. Maybe you're renting now and watching rent continue to eat away at your disposable income. Maybe life is changing. Marriage, children, divorce, retirement, relocation. There are a hundred reasons why someone might need or want to buy a home that have absolutely nothing to do with whether CNBC thinks this is a good housing market. That's when we sit down, look at the numbers and figure out whether it makes sense for you.
And no, sometimes you probably shouldn't buy a house. If you're new in your career and there is a reasonable chance your job will move you in two years, let's talk about that. If buying the house empties your savings account, let's talk about that. If the only way the payment works is if rates come down next year, we definitely need to talk about that. If you're nearing retirement and you're pouring everything you have into a house while expecting that house to somehow fund your retirement later, we need to have a very different conversation.
Sometimes the best real estate advice I can give somebody is, don't buy a house right now.
Then there is the other side of this crazy market. Roughly 40% of owner-occupied homes in this country don't have a mortgage at all. Among the people who do have mortgages, nearly half are sitting on rates of 4% or less. Think about that. If you own your house outright, you probably don't have to sell it. If you're sitting on a 3% mortgage, how excited are you about selling that house and replacing it with a mortgage around 7%?
Not very.
So buyers are frustrated because affordability is difficult, while a whole bunch of sellers have equity, low payments and absolutely no financial reason to panic. Inventory is what it is. Buyers still need houses. Sellers may hold out for their price because, quite frankly, many of them can.
Real estate professionals don't control any of this. I don't control mortgage rates. I don't control inflation. I don't control oil prices, the bond market or the Federal Reserve. And despite what anybody tells you, I don't know where mortgage rates are going next year.
What I do control is what happens when you sit across from me.
My responsibility isn't to convince you that now is always a great time to buy real estate. My responsibility is to understand what you're trying to accomplish, present the data, explain what I see and give you the information you need to make the best informed decision you can.
Sometimes that answer is yes. Sometimes it's maybe. And sometimes it's no.
I'll admit, when this broker talks about the current state of housing, his heart breaks a little bit every time. There are people doing everything they were told they were supposed to do. They work, they save, they build their careers, they raise their families, and some of them still look at the cost of owning a home and wonder how the hell they're supposed to make the math work.
I don't have a magic answer for that.
Find someone you trust.