02/21/2026
Multifamily: Strong Demand, Thin Supply Ahead
Against that economic backdrop, the multifamily sector stands out for its long-term fundamentals, said Sharon Wilson Geno, president of the National Multifamily Housing Council. Apartment vacancies remain relatively stable and below 5% nationally, but the most striking development is on the supply side. Multifamily starts have fallen roughly 72% from their peak, and units under construction are down more than 50%.
A small group of high-growth metros – such as Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Austin and Houston – account for a disproportionate share of new supply. The sharp pullback in construction is expected to tighten conditions meaningfully as 2026 progresses.
Demand remains well supported by affordability constraints in the for-sale housing market. Only about 25% of Americans can qualify for a typical first-time home purchase, Geno said, and the gap between average rent and a median mortgage payment is the widest on record.
“Renters are staying renters longer,” Geno observed.
Owners are still feeling pressure from insurance, labor and operating costs. Rent growth has yet to fully reflect the coming supply shortage, but the consensus view is that conditions should improve toward late 2026 and into 2027.
During a recent economic and real estate outlook call hosted by Marcus & Millichap, leading economists and industry experts unpacked what lies ahead for growth, jobs and the major commercial real estate sectors.
