10/17/2022
Here is the market update and link for our September statistics.
"In the past, I have discussed the four phases of the real estate market and how we are now firmly in the phase 4, where prices are decreasing, as the number of total sales continue to decline.
Interest rates are now above 7% and are project by most economist to continue to rise through the end of the year. At first blush this may seem an ominous sign, however I believe that there is a silver lining in this shift in the market, that in the long term will be healthy.
The health of any market is predicated upon on its ability to provide housing for first time home buyers. The reason first time home buyers are so critical, is that they are the first domino’s in a series of moves. A simple example is when a first time home buyer purchases a condo, it allows the seller of that condo to become a buyer. That buyer purchases another home that better accommodate their needs. The seller of that larger home is then able to purchase yet another that better meets their needs. Ultimately this free’s a buyer to purchase their dream home, and that owner is then able to downsize. This first time home buyer domino will often be the catalyst to 3 to 6 other moves.
Over the last two years despite historically low interest rates, the cost of housing has left many first time home buyers on the sidelines and unable to enter the market. As property values adjust to the new interest rates, some economist predict that rates will come back down, providing a window for these first time home buyers to enter the market.
My personal belief is that the Fed is committed to continuing these rates hikes until they see inflation return to 2%. This may not be possible until we see a decrease in spending, which may only come because of a significant increase in unemployment. Despite the Fed’s current direction, they are getting pressure from multiple sources both foreign and domestic, to reduce the funds rate. The upcoming election year may also add additional pressure as well.
My conclusions is that the market will ultimately benefit because of the depreciation we are experiencing. My trusted financial planner, Jason Payne, suggests the following for those hoping to enter the market as a first time home buyer:
1. Be optimistic, many in our culture today have a “give up attitude”, so they buy a new vehicle or other toys with funds previously earmarked for a down payment.
2. Save cash so you have the ability to have a solid down payment when the market shifts. Do this by reducing car, credit card and student loan debts. Pick up extra jobs for extra cash and save your tax-return money. Reduce eating out, big trips and overall discretionary spending. This will quickly increase the strength your down payment, as well as the added benefit of reducing your debt to income ratio.
3. Lastly, for those with little credit, go through the process of getting credit and increasing your score.
These three suggestions of being optimistic, increasing your down payment, and improving your credit will have you strongly prepared for when the market shifts and it’s time to jump on the opportunities.
If you have any questions or I can be of any help, please do not hesitate to reach out. Kelly 801-372-4747"
