05/24/2026
Mortgage rates climbed back above 6.5% this month, and a lot of buyers across St. Louis and St. Charles have been asking me the same question: what happened?
The honest answer is that rates did not rise because of anything going on in the housing market itself. They rose because of what is happening in the broader economy.
Inflation is still running hotter than the Fed would like. The latest CPI came in around 3.8%, which is well above the Fed's 2% target, and wholesale prices have been climbing even faster than that. At the same time, oil prices spiked because of overseas conflict, and since energy feeds into the cost of nearly everything, that puts even more pressure on prices. When inflation looks like it is sticking around, investors sell off bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield moves higher, and mortgage rates tend to follow it right up.
The Federal Reserve is part of the picture too. A few months ago the market was expecting rate cuts before the end of the year, and that expectation has mostly faded. Some investors are now even pricing in the possibility of another hike. When the odds of a cut go down, the upward pressure on mortgage rates goes up.
Here is what it means if you are thinking about buying. I would not spend much energy trying to time the absolute bottom. Nobody could have predicted the 6% rates we saw earlier this year, and nobody is going to perfectly call the next low either. The better approach is to buy the home that genuinely fits your life and your budget at a payment you are comfortable with today, and then refinance down the road if rates come back down. The old saying still holds up: marry the house and date the rate.
If you are trying to figure out what today's rates mean for your situation, I am always happy to help and point you toward a qualified lender who can walk you through the real numbers. Just reach out.
