11/02/2025
Everyone thinks when the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates automatically drop. Not true.
I’m closing on a property tomorrow and my lender explained it perfectly:
“Even though the Fed reduced rates yesterday, mortgage rates don’t move directly with the Fed rate. They’re based on the bond market.”
Here’s what that means 👇
The Fed controls short-term rates (like credit cards and HELOCs).
Mortgage rates follow the bond market — mainly the 10-year Treasury yield.
If investors expect inflation or strong growth, yields rise → mortgage rates go up.
If investors expect a slowdown, yields fall → mortgage rates go down.
So a Fed cut doesn’t guarantee cheaper mortgages — sometimes rates even rise afterward.
Bottom line:
🏦 Fed rate = short-term money
📈 Mortgage rate = bond market expectations
If your rate is locked, you’re protected if rates rise — and if they fall, your lender might adjust.