Mike Ofstad, Realtor

09/17/2026

A New Listing in the Camaloch n-hood on Camano Island! Very happy to help these great people. Gated golf community, immaculate condition, and free golf with ownership too!!

09/08/2026

I don’t post this kind of stuff often but it is realtor safety awareness week and we can all use this kind of knowledge. This was forwarded from a medical professional friend who had attended CPR classes, as I have, over the years, but was never told this particular scenario. Nor was I.

When your body starts sweating profusely for no apparent reason followed by what feels like a spasm at the end of your esophagus, that is your body’s warning sign.

When you are alone and have a heart attack, what are you gonna do? A really good post that can't be shared often enough:

1. Take a 2 minute break and read this:
Let's say it's 5:25 pm and you're driving home after an unusually hard day's work.

2. You are really tired and frustrated.
All of a sudden you experience chest pains. They are starting to radiate in the arm and jaw. It feels like being stabbed in the chest and heart. You're only a few miles away from the nearest hospital or home.

3. Unfortunately you don't know if you can make it..

4. Maybe you've taken CPR training, but the person running the course hasn't told you how to help yourself.

5. How do you survive a heart attack when you're alone when it happens? A person who is feeling weak and whose heart is beating hard has only about 10 seconds before losing consciousness.

6. But you can help yourself by coughing repeatedly and very strongly! Deep breaths before every cough. Coughing should be repeated every second until you arrive at the hospital or until your heart starts to beat normally.

7. Deep breathing gives oxygen to your lungs and coughing movements boost the heart and blood circulation. Heart pressure also helps to restore a normal heartbeat. That’s how cardiac arrest victims can make it to the hospital for the right treatment.

8. Cardiologists say if someone gets this message and passes it on to 10 people, we can expect to save at least one life.

9. FOR WOMEN: You should know that women have additional and different symptoms. RARELY have crushing chest pain or pain in the arms. OFTEN have indigestion and tightness across the back at the bra line plus sudden fatigue.

♥️COPY (hold your finger, click on the text and select copy, go to your own page and where you normally want to write, select finger again and paste)!

Done!
✅

08/28/2026

For the week of August 28, 2026
This past week, interest rates improved slightly yet remain just above 2026 highs. There are some encouraging developments beneath the surface, but the bond market remains at an important crossroads. Between developments at the Treasury, tame inflation, lower oil prices and an important week for labor market data, we may be setting up for an important move in rates.

Treasury twist fallout.

It was over a week ago when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke about a program to purchase longer-dated, less-liquid Treasury securities in an effort to provide liquidity and improve market functioning.

The stated purpose is important. When certain portions of the Treasury market become less liquid, purchasing those securities can potentially help improve market functioning. But there is another part of this story that has captured the attention of the bond market.

Many viewed the proposal as an attempt to help lower longer-term interest rates.

That distinction is enormously important for mortgage and housing professionals. We spend a lot of time talking about what the Fed may or may not do with short-term rates, but mortgage rates are much more closely tied to what happens farther out on the bond yield curve.

If Treasury purchases ultimately provide additional demand for longer-dated securities, that is something the bond market and certainly the mortgage industry will be watching closely.

This is not the same thing as the Fed cutting rates or launching a traditional monetary easing program. But anything that could affect demand, liquidity and pricing at the longer end of the Treasury market deserves our attention.

Inflation remains tame.

July Core PCE showed inflation rising roughly 0.2 percent for the month, which equates to an annualized pace near 2.4 percent. That is much closer to the Fed's goal of 2.00 percent inflation.

But the headline doesn't tell the entire story.

An interesting component buried underneath the inflation data was portfolio management fees. The July Producer Price Index showed an enormous 6.5 percent increase in portfolio management fees. These fees ultimately bleed into Core PCE and they had an outsized impact on July's reading.

Of the roughly 0.2 percent monthly increase in Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), approximately 40 percent came from portfolio management fees.

Think about that. The biggest factor is charging US more to use our money. It's a big game, and the little guy is not winning.

Nearly half of the monthly increase came from one category and portfolio management fees are hardly the type of inflation that can be cured by keeping interest rates higher. It just transfers more money from the consumer or investor to the central banks.

This is why not all inflation is created equal.

It is also why we have to look beneath the headline numbers when determining whether inflation is truly becoming problematic. Higher interest rates can influence demand and certain areas of the economy, but they cannot effectively combat every individual component that happens to push an inflation index higher.

From that perspective, July's Core PCE report doesn't strongly suggest that higher interest rates are needed.

Oil

Oil prices have also moved into the lower $80s as optimism surrounding Iran has helped reduce some of the immediate fears of military conflict.

That matters because geopolitical uncertainty can quickly add a risk premium to energy prices. If those concerns remain contained, lower oil prices would be another welcome development on the inflation front.

Energy can influence both actual inflation and inflation expectations, making oil an important market to watch alongside bonds.

Will bond prices break out?

On the positive side, prices have an opportunity to move above the 50-day moving average for the first time in quite some time. A sustained move above that level would be an encouraging technical development and could support lower mortgage rates.

But there is another side to this setup.

If bond prices fail to break higher, we remain vulnerable to making fresh 2026 price lows.

Remember: bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. New lows in bond prices would mean higher yields and could usher in fresh 2026 mortgage rate highs.


Infographic showing 30-year mortgage rates as of August 6, 2026. The current rate is approximately 6.69%. Compared with the previous week, the rate is up 0.03 percentage points from about 6.66%. Compared with the same time last year, the rate is up 0.06 percentage points from about 6.63%. Red upward arrows indicate increases in both comparisons.

Infographic showing the 10-year Treasury note yield as of August 7, 2026. The current yield is approximately 4.66%. Compared with the previous week, the yield is unchanged at about 4.66%. Compared with the same time last year, the yield is up 0.44 percentage points from about 4.22%. A red upward arrow indicates the year-over-year increase.

Looking ahead

As we move closer to the September Fed meeting, attention now shifts directly toward the labor market side of the Fed's mandate.

This week we'll receive several important reports, including ADP, (Automated Data Processing), JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) and, of course, the official Jobs Report.

No single report will tell the entire story. But collectively, these numbers should give markets another important read on the direction and momentum of the labor market at a particularly important time.

And considering where bond prices are sitting technically, the timing couldn't be much more interesting.

Markets will also continue digesting Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech from last Friday and determining what his message means for the path forward.

Put it all together and we have the ingredients for an important week: bond prices threatening a technical breakout, fresh labor market data arriving ahead of the September Fed meeting, and markets continuing to digest the message out of Jackson Hole.

08/15/2026

For the week of August 14, 2026
Mortgage rates continue to hover just beneath one-year highs in what was a packed news week. Let's discuss what happened and look into the week ahead.

Consumer prices tame

Consumer prices met expectations, providing some welcome news for the bond market. More importantly, the recent inflation trend continues to move in the right direction.

The month-over-month pace, along with the three-month or quarterly pace of inflation, is running at or below the Fed's 2 percent target when viewed on an annualized basis. Should those trends continue, the likelihood of the Fed's next move being a rate hike becomes more unlikely.

Adding to the encouraging inflation story was the very tame Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale level…what businesses are paying for goods and services before those costs ultimately reach the consumer.

This matters because producer prices can provide a glimpse at inflation pressures coming down the pipeline. When businesses face rapidly rising costs, some of those increases can eventually be passed along to consumers through higher prices. Conversely, tame producer inflation helps reduce that pressure and can help keep consumer inflation at bay.

Taken together with the latest consumer inflation reading, this was another welcome sign for the bond market. If both producer and consumer inflation remain well behaved, it becomes increasingly difficult to make the case that higher interest rates are needed to combat inflation.

Bond supply limits improvement

While inflation helped bonds, Treasury supply limited the improvement. The market had to digest a large amount of new Treasury issuance. There is a saying in the markets: "Bonds Hate More Bonds" as the increased supply weighs on prices and pushes rates higher. Our deficit spending and need to create more bond supply remains an important headwind for bonds and mortgage rates.

Oil prices ease

Oil continues to hover around $80, well off its recent highs but still above the high-$60s level seen when the U.S. and Iran conflict commenced. Oil remains a key focal point for mortgage and housing professionals because, as oil goes, so often go long-term interest rates like mortgages.

Breaking a 19-year trend?

A trend that has existed for 19 years is threatening to be broken.

Back in 2007 was the last time the 10-year note touched 4.60 percent and then, three months later, traded above 4.60 percent. It appears that streak could end unless the 10-year dips and stays beneath 4.60 percent by August 19.

That makes 4.60 percent an especially important level to watch.


Infographic showing 30-year mortgage rates as of August 6, 2026. The current rate is approximately 6.69%. Compared with the previous week, the rate is up 0.03 percentage points from about 6.66%. Compared with the same time last year, the rate is up 0.06 percentage points from about 6.63%. Red upward arrows indicate increases in both comparisons.

Infographic showing the 10-year Treasury note yield as of August 7, 2026. The current yield is approximately 4.66%. Compared with the previous week, the yield is unchanged at about 4.66%. Compared with the same time last year, the yield is up 0.44 percentage points from about 4.22%. A red upward arrow indicates the year-over-year increase.

Looking ahead

There are no real high-impact economic reports ahead, but we'll receive the minutes from the previous Fed meeting. The minutes provide a more detailed look inside the Fed's discussion, what officials were thinking, what risks concerned them and how they viewed the path forward for monetary policy.

We'll also hear plenty of Fed speak. That could be especially interesting after three officials dissented from the decision to hold rates at the last meeting. With recent jobs reports coming in light and inflation easing, listen closely for whether more Fed officials begin backing away from the notion that the next move could be a rate hike.

For now, keep watching the 10-year at 4.60 percent, oil and the Fed. They could help determine whether bonds can build on this week's inflation-friendly news.

08/07/2026

For the week of August 7, 2026
Interest rates improved from their worst levels of 2026 during what was a relatively quiet week for economic news. While there were plenty of headlines, markets spent much of the week digesting developments overseas and waiting for next week's more meaningful inflation reports. Let's look at what moved markets this week and what's on deck in the week ahead.

Oil lower, rates lower

Energy prices continue to be one of the biggest drivers of market sentiment and this week it was no different. There continues to be cautious optimism surrounding the US - Iran situation, although plenty of uncertainty remains. The biggest question continues to be when the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen to normal shipping traffic.

One encouraging development came from reports that Iran may allow European nations to assist in clearing mines from the Strait. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also indicated that negotiations to reopen the shipping lane continue to make progress. While no formal agreement had been reached as of Thursday, investors viewed the week's headlines as constructive.

As a result, oil prices continued to retreat from their recent highs. Crude has now settled back into the mid-$70 per barrel range after reaching roughly $120 per barrel earlier this Spring. Lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, helping both stocks and interest rates improve during the week.

Jobs are available

The labor market continues to show signs of balance rather than weakness. This week's JOLTS report showed employers are still advertising a healthy number of available positions, indicating that demand for workers remains solid.

However, the details paint an important picture. Hiring activity remains relatively modest, while the quits rate also remains contained. Workers are generally staying put instead of voluntarily leaving for new opportunities. This suggests gradual cooling in the labor market.

ADP's (Automatic Data Processing) private payroll report came in near expectations, and this reading remains especially important under current fiscal policy. As Washington looks to slow the pace of government hiring while encouraging private sector employment, investors are paying closer attention to private payroll growth than headline job creation alone.

Japan yen volatility cools

One concern that has quietly pressured longer-term interest rates this year has been Japan's currency markets. As the Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, investors worried that Japanese institutions could become less supportive buyers of U.S. Treasuries, placing upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

Fortunately, those concerns have eased recently. Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, has discussed measures designed to provide additional financial stability and liquidity for Japan, helping calm markets and reduce some of the volatility surrounding the yen. While the situation still deserves monitoring, the cooling of currency concerns has been one factor helping long-term rates like mortgages, improve.


Infographic showing 30-year mortgage rates as of August 6, 2026. The current rate is approximately 6.69%. Compared with the previous week, the rate is up 0.03 percentage points from about 6.66%. Compared with the same time last year, the rate is up 0.06 percentage points from about 6.63%. Red upward arrows indicate increases in both comparisons.

Infographic showing the 10-year Treasury note yield as of August 7, 2026. The current yield is approximately 4.66%. Compared with the previous week, the yield is unchanged at about 4.66%. Compared with the same time last year, the yield is up 0.44 percentage points from about 4.22%. A red upward arrow indicates the year-over-year increase.

Looking Ahead

Next week's calendar shifts into a much higher gear.

The biggest events will be the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Inflation remains front and center for consumers, markets, and new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. If inflation readings come in hotter than expected, expect talk of a potential September rate hike to quickly gain momentum. Cooler inflation numbers would have the opposite effect and likely support lower interest rates.

We'll also receive Retail Sales, one of the best gauges of consumer health. Consumer spending represents roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. As long as consumers continue to spend, recession concerns remain difficult to justify.

Finally, Treasury auctions remain an important story. The continued supply of new government debt has become a headwind for long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates. Simply put, bonds dislike competing with more bonds. Until Washington makes meaningful progress reducing deficit spending, the bond market may continue demanding higher yields to absorb the growing supply of Treasury securities.

08/06/2026

07/31/2026

For the week of July 24, 2026
Mortgage rates continued their climb this week, hitting one-year highs as energy prices remained the dominant force driving financial markets.
Current Rate Averages
30-Year Fixed: 6.66% (Freddie Mac weekly) to 6.83% (Mortgage News Daily daily survey)
15-Year Fixed: 6.04% (Freddie Mac weekly) to 6.32% (Mortgage News Daily daily survey)
30-Year FHA: ~6.34%30-Year VA: ~6.36%
While the economic calendar was unusually quiet, the bond market certainly wasn't. Let's break down what happened this week and look ahead to the events that could shape the direction of rates for the remainder of the summer.

Oil takes center stage

The conflict involving the U.S. and Iran remains not only unresolved but appears to be escalating. As of late last week, crude oil has climbed to $90 per barrel, a sharp move higher from the $68 range seen just a few weeks ago. That surge has reignited inflation concerns and placed significant pressure on both Treasury and mortgage markets.

With no meaningful economic reports, Treasury auctions or major scheduled events competing for investors' attention, markets have been almost entirely focused on geopolitical developments. The result has been a steady selloff in longer-term bonds, sending Treasury and mortgage prices lower while pushing yields higher as investors respond to growing uncertainty.

Higher oil prices complicate the outlook because they create inflation concerns while simultaneously acting as a tax on economic growth. That leaves markets wrestling with two competing narratives: rising inflation on one hand and slowing economic momentum on the other. Until one of those forces gains the upper hand, volatility is likely to remain elevated.

Breaking bad

The technical picture is becoming just as important as the headlines. For months we've discussed an important trend in the 10-year Treasury note. After first touching 4.60 percent, yields have repeatedly failed to sustain a move above that level. That long-standing pattern, one we've highlighted in previous MMG issues, is now under serious pressure. A decisive break above that level would represent a meaningful shift in market behavior and challenge a trend that stretches back nearly two decades.

Meanwhile, the long bond is already sending a warning. Thirty-year Treasury yields have now remained above 5 percent for the longest stretch in roughly 20 years. That speaks volumes about the pressure facing the fixed-income market and reinforces this week's theme. When we say the bond market is breaking bad, we're not simply referring to a rough week, we're describing a market that's testing some of its most significant technical and psychological levels in years.

Next week brings one of the most important weeks of the summer. The Federal Reserve meets, and with rates moving higher alongside oil prices, speculation surrounding future rate hikes is certain to intensify. Chairman Warsh faces a difficult balancing act as he attempts to resist the temptation to tighten policy into an oil-driven inflation spike. Whether that stance changes will be one of the market's primary focuses.

We'll also receive the Fed's once-preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, along with the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE. Both reports have the potential to move markets, particularly given the heightened sensitivity to inflation expectations.

For now, however, the story remains remarkably straightforward. Oil prices, the unresolved geopolitical conflict, the Federal Reserve and several critical technical levels in the bond market are driving investor sentiment. Until those pieces begin to change, expect markets and mortgage rates to remain on edge.

07/17/2026

Happy Friday everyone. Instead of the usual report, here are a couple thoughts about the state of the market. First, rates inched up again this week to their highest since Aug of 2025; Mortgage News Daily has the national Average at 6.68%. Purchase apps dropped 7% for the week and slipped 2% below last year - the first negative year-over-year read in months. Buyers are pausing. Secondly, the 71% problem. 71% of prospective buyers are waiting for prices and rates to drop. Here's what they don't get: when rates finally drop, all 71% will show up at the same time. Same Homes. Same inventory. Bidding wars, panic offers, lost deals. If you wait for a better rate, you then will compete with everyone who waited with you. Move now, and there is less competition, better inventory, more negotiating power, maybe the same home at a lower price. This is the conversation I am having with my clients. And thirdly, the narrative has flipped. For the first time in 3 years, 53% of Americans surveyed now say buying beats renting. That is a HUGE shift. The renting is smarter crowd is officially losing the argument. But the truth of the matter is buying is almost always the better option if you are thinking about wealth accumulation and gaining equity instead of throwing your money to a large corporation that owns apartment buildings. Be on the right side of history! Have a great weekend!!

06/26/2026

For the week of June 26, 2026

A look into the markets
Mortgage rates touched their lowest levels since mid-May this week, continuing a positive trend for borrowers. The question is simple: What changed? Let's take a look at the forces driving rates lower and what lies ahead in the coming week.

Oil at $70
One of the biggest stories impacting rates has been the steady decline in oil prices. After fears of supply disruptions pushed energy prices higher earlier this year, tensions involving Iran have continued to ease and crude oil has fallen back toward the $70 per barrel level. In fact, oil prices have now retraced much of the spike that occurred during the Middle East conflict as markets grow more confident that major supply channels will remain open.

Equally important is diesel fuel. Diesel impacts virtually every part of the supply chain, from farming and manufacturing to trucking and grocery store shelves. Recent data shows diesel prices have fallen to near their lowest levels since 2021, providing welcome relief throughout the economy.

This is encouraging news on the inflation front. Lower energy costs tend to work their way through the economy over time, helping reduce inflation pressures. It's also good news for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. As the oil shock continues to fade, some of the concern about inflation reaccelerating, and potentially forcing another rate hike, may begin to ease.

Housing bill passed
Congress passed a significant housing package this week aimed at addressing affordability and supply challenges facing the housing market.

The legislation includes provisions designed to encourage new housing development, expand access to financing and create incentives intended to increase housing inventory over time. While these changes won't produce immediate results, they represent a meaningful step toward addressing the long-term supply shortages that have contributed to affordability challenges nationwide.

For mortgage markets, increased housing supply is generally a positive development. More inventory creates more opportunities for buyers and can help support a healthier and more balanced housing market.

Trend remains our friend
One of our favorite sayings is that "the trend is your friend," and that remains true today.

About six weeks ago, the 10-year Treasury note briefly touched 4.69 percent. Since then, yields have steadily declined toward the 4.40 percent area. That move has helped support lower mortgage rates and improved market sentiment.

An interesting historical note: the last time the 10-year Treasury note moved above 4.60 percent and was still there 90 days later was back in 2008. While history never guarantees future results, it highlights how difficult it has been for long-term rates to sustain materially higher levels over the past 18 years.

As long as the current trend remains intact, mortgage rates should continue to benefit.

Looking ahead
The upcoming week will be shortened by the Independence Day holiday, with the bond market closed Friday, July 3.

Despite the holiday schedule, it'll be a busy week for economic data, highlighted by several key labor market reports:

• May JOLTS job openings (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)
• June ADP (Automatic Data Processing) employment report
• June ISM (Institute for Supply Managing) manufacturing index
• Weekly jobless claims
• June consumer confidence
• June employment report (released Thursday)

Notably absent from the calendar will be Federal Reserve speeches and Treasury auctions, allowing economic data to take center stage.

As always, labor market data remains one of the most important drivers of mortgage rates. We'll be watching closely to see whether the recent trend toward lower rates can continue.


30-year mortgage rates
June 24, 2026
6.49%
-.03% WoW (6.52%) -.32% YoY (6.81%)
10-year Treasury note yields
June 24, 2026
4.37%
-.08% WoW (4.45%) .08% YoY (4.29%)

06/19/2026

Thought I would shake it up a little. Instead of my usual Real Estate photos, here is something a little different. Here is a band I play with, that's me with the red guitar, and we are playing at the Elger Bay Sore and restaurant outside, tomorrow at 5pm-8pm. Come join us for fun music, good food and a great time.

For the week of June 19, 2026—Vol. 24, Issue 25
A look into the markets
Mortgage rates finished the week largely unchanged from where they began despite no shortage of market-moving headlines. Geopolitical tensions eased, oil prices continued their retreat and markets received another glimpse into what may become a different Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh's growing influence. With rates holding steady through a week packed with developments, let's break down what happened and look ahead to the week to come.

Warsh takes the reins
The Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged at this week's meeting, a decision that was widely expected by financial markets. More notable than the rate decision itself was the evolution of the Fed's communication strategy. The post-meeting statement was noticeably leaner than recent versions, with much of the forward guidance removed. The streamlined - or "skinny" - statement signaled a shift away from pre-committing to future policy actions and toward a more meeting-by-meeting approach.

Initially, markets took the announcement in stride. With no change in rates and little surprise in the policy statement, stocks and bonds saw relatively modest movement immediately following the release. The real action came later during Chair Warsh's press conference, where investors began parsing his comments for clues about how the new Fed leadership intends to operate.

One of the most discussed developments was Warsh's announcement that the Fed will be establishing several task forces to review key areas of monetary policy implementation and central bank operations. While details remain limited, markets interpreted the move as evidence that the new Chair intends to take a fresh look at how the Fed conducts policy and manages its balance sheet. The comments reinforced the perception that inflation remains a primary concern and that the Fed may be willing to maintain a firmer policy stance than previously expected.

As a result, futures markets increased the probability of additional Fed rate hikes. Investors generally viewed the overall tone of the press conference as hawkish, meaning more focused on containing inflation than supporting economic growth. However, it is important not to draw a straight line between higher Fed hike expectations and higher mortgage rates.

The Fed controls overnight borrowing costs, but mortgage rates are driven primarily by longer-term bond markets. In fact, if Chair Warsh ultimately pursues a tougher anti-inflation strategy through accelerated balance sheet reduction rather than relying solely on rate hikes, the outcome could actually be favorable for long-term bonds. A more aggressive effort to reduce inflation pressures can improve the outlook for future purchasing power, making long-term investments such as Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds more attractive to investors.

In other words, while markets interpreted this meeting as hawkish, that does not necessarily mean mortgage rates must move higher. If investors become convinced that the Fed is serious about restoring price stability, long-term bond yields and mortgage rates could ultimately benefit from that confidence.

Conflict de-escalation
One of the largest stories impacting financial markets was the continued de-escalation of tensions involving Iran. Markets had previously priced in the risk of broader regional instability, which helped push investors toward safe-haven assets and increased volatility across bonds, stocks and energy markets.

As those fears subsided, markets began removing some of the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into prices. The result was a notable decline in volatility, which is good news for bonds and rates.

Lower volatility is generally favorable for mortgage-backed securities and Treasury markets. When uncertainty declines, markets can return to evaluating inflation, growth and Federal Reserve policy rather than reacting to breaking news from overseas.

Oil lower
Crude oil continued moving lower this week, extending a trend that mortgage market participants have welcomed.

Energy prices remain one of the most visible inflation inputs for consumers and businesses alike. While oil is not the sole driver of inflation, sustained price declines help ease inflationary pressure throughout the economy, reducing transportation, manufacturing and distribution costs over time.

For long-term rates such as mortgages, lower inflation expectations are generally constructive. The bond market continues to view falling energy prices as one factor supporting a more stable inflation outlook heading into the second half of the year.

4.50%
The 10-year Treasury note once again tested the important 4.50 percent yield level during the week before backing away from that resistance ceiling.

This level continues to be one of the most important technical markers in the bond market. Each attempt above 4.50 percent has attracted buyers, helping yields retreat and providing support for mortgage pricing.

Investors should continue watching this level closely in the days and weeks ahead as Kevin Warsh begins to shape policy discussions at the Federal Reserve and new economic data arrives. Whether the 10-year can remain below this ceiling may help determine the next meaningful move in mortgage rates


30-year Mortgage Rates
June 18, 2026
6.47%
-.05% WoW (6.52%) -.34% YoY (6.81%)
10-year Treasury note yields
June 18, 2026
4.43%
-.03% WoW (4.46%) .03% YoY (4.40%)

Looking ahead
Next week's calendar features several events capable of moving markets, highlighted by the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE).

Core PCE measures inflation after removing food and energy prices and remains one of the Fed's primary tools for evaluating underlying price pressures.

Also released alongside Core PCE is a measure receiving increased attention under Chairman Warsh: the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE.

Unlike Core PCE, which permanently excludes food and energy categories, the Trimmed Mean PCE removes the most extreme price increases and decreases each month regardless of category. Supporters argue this approach provides a cleaner view of underlying inflation trends by filtering out unusual price swings wherever they occur in the economy.

Warsh has frequently pointed to the Trimmed Mean measure as a useful way to identify persistent inflation pressures while avoiding distortions created by temporary spikes or collapses in individual components. Markets may pay closer attention to this release than they have historically as investors seek clues about how the new Fed leadership evaluates inflation risks.

In addition to the inflation data, Treasury auctions throughout the week will provide another test of investor demand for U.S. government debt. Strong auction demand would be supportive for bonds and mortgage rates, while weak demand could place upward pressure on yields.

For now, rates remain trapped between improving inflation signals and a still-resilient economy. As the conflict fades, oil retreats and Warsh's influence grows, the bond market's focus shifts back where it belongs: inflation, growth and the path of Federal Reserve policy.