12/18/2025
Paraphrased from
Vince Newsome's Market Update - National Mortgage Funding
Why Fed Cuts Don’t Control Mortgage Rates
The Federal Reserve controls very short-term loans, sometimes lasting just overnight.
Mortgages are long-term loans, often 30 years.
Because of that:
Short-term rates and long-term mortgage rates do not move in lockstep. They often go in different directions
Mortgage Rates Move Daily (The Fed Doesn’t)
The Fed only meets eight times per year.
Mortgage rates move every single day based on the economy and investor expectations.
Most of the time:
The market already knows what the Fed is going to do
Mortgage rates adjust before the Fed actually makes an announcement
When the Fed finally cuts rates, the mortgage market has usually already priced it in.
What the Market Is Expecting Now
Right now, investors believe:
There may be only one more Fed rate cut between now and early 2026. This outlook has been forming for months. Because this is already expected, it is not moving mortgage rates much last week.
What Will Move Mortgage Rates?
Mortgage rates will respond to future economic data, especially:
Jobs Report
A weaker job market increases the chance of future Fed cuts, which can help rates move lower
A strong job market can keep rates higher
Inflation Report (CPI)
Lower inflation is good for mortgage rates
Higher inflation can push rates higher
Think of it like two-coin flips:
If both reports point the same direction, rates tend to move more. If they conflict, rates may barely move at all
Final Takeaway
Fed rate cuts do not guarantee lower mortgage rates
Mortgage rates move based on expectations and economic data
Jobs and inflation report matter more than Fed headlines
*** Vincent Newsome***
Home Loan Advisor, National Mortgage Funding, NMLS 713774
Phone 248-388-5528
Website nationalmortgagefunding.net
Email [email protected]