01/17/2026
📊 December 2025 Market Update: A "Grinding" Market in the Central Valley 🏡
The year ended with a mix of opportunity and caution. While most of the Central Valley technically remains a Seller’s Market due to low inventory, buyers are pulling back, and prices are softening in key areas. Here is the snapshot as we head into 2026:
1. It’s (Mostly) Still a Seller’s Market Despite economic headwinds, high "absorption rates" (the speed at which homes sell) are keeping most cities in Seller territory.
• Modesto is incredibly tight with a 55.6% absorption rate.
• Lodi and Elk Grove also remain favorable to sellers.
• Mountain House saw sales volume explode, up 166% compared to last year.
2. Buyers Are Hitting the Brakes "Pending sales" (homes going under contract) took a steep dive in December, signaling buyer hesitation.
• Tracy saw pending listings plummet 46.3% from the previous month.
• Lathrop and Elk Grove pending sales dropped roughly 20%.
• Bright Spot: Mountain House bucked the trend with pending sales up 37.5% year-over-year.
3. Prices Are Softening We are seeing price corrections across the region.
• Mountain House sold prices were down 16.1% year-over-year.
• Manteca saw its average price per sq. ft. drop nearly 14%.
• Lathrop and Tracy both showed depreciating price trends.
4. The Outlier: Lathrop
Lathrop stands alone as a Neutral Market. Inventory there is up 58.3% compared to last year, giving buyers significantly more leverage and choice than in neighboring cities.
The Bottom Line: We are in a "start-and-stop" market. Inventory is low, which protects prices from crashing, but high rates and costs are making buyers extremely picky. If you are selling, pricing for today's market is the only way to move, you will sit longer on the market if you believe that pandemic era prices are still the norm. If you are buying, you finally have room to negotiate in cities like Tracy and Lathrop.
📩 Not seeing the city you live in? DM me for the specific report on your city!
