09/01/2019
DORIAN 9-1-19
Good morning everyone. First, I would like to apologise for not giving my amateur reports concerning Hurricane Dorian. As many of you know, (and have kindly acknowledged) my father passed away peacefully and quietly this week at age 89 after struggling with dementia over the last several years. We had a lovely service Saturday with an over capacity crowd.
That being said - Dorian now gets front and center attention. Dorian is currently a MAJOR hurricane at category 5 and is bearing down on our friends in the Abacos about 40nm to the east of the Abacos. They are set for a pounding as the storm is expected to stall due to a high pressure ridge just to the north of the storm. This is exceedingly bad news for them as they will not only encounter 175 mph SUSTAINED winds but will have gusts that could approach 200mph and rainfall amounts of 14”. A tidal surge of 15’ is expected and there will be great currents and tidal rips as the water runs through the islands with less land mass for it to pile up onto - except Great Abaco and Grand Bahama. We will keep them in our prayers. Bahamians are not only people of great faith, they are incredibly resilient too.
Now - what does Dorian’s current position and project path mean to us here in the Lowcountry? As you can see in the attached maps Dorian is really tightly compacted right now and very intense. When it slows down it is predicted to expand and cover a much larger area as it slows, stops and turns north. The point is, even if it goes offshore of us the width of the Strom will still give us a good whack.From the latest models and ensembles the path will clearly bring her very close (or closer) to our shores and we should take all measures necessary to protect our family and homes as this storm has the potential to produce high winds and copious amounts of rain.
Due to the aforementioned high pressure ridge to the north of the storm, the path of Dorian is still a little unpredictable. If the high weakens it will slide north quicker allowing her to skirt the coast and possibly not even make a US landfall. The high pressure could remain intact or strengthen which would guide the storm further to the west and impacting Florida, the Georgia and SC coast.
The HWRF model is suggesting a slightly more westward movement once the center leaves the Straights of Florida and actually makes landfall near Jacksonville and then exits as a tropical storm near Savannah where it will gather some additional energy before taking a swipe at the outer banks.
But most of the ensembles predict a Matthew like path which keeps the eye off the coast.
Now - what did Matthew bring us here along the coastal plain? We were on the western side of the storm which is preferred if you are going to be in a hurricane. The winds were 70 with 90 mph gusts from the western quadrant. So - look at your property, trees, plantings, outside furniture and imagine 90mph or higher winds coming through. Take precautions now. If there are tree limbs near your house - try to cut them back. Move your pool or lawn furniture under the ouse or in garage.
We also should expect coast flooding as the wind will be piling up the water along the coast as the storm approaches. Last week we had our King tides which happen twice a year. We are now on the backside of them yet our highs are still in the 6.5’ range but as each day goes by our high tides become less high. By the time the storm is in our area we will still have 6.0 tides - so thats a real concern for those in flood prone areas or places which have low lying causeways - like, say Sullivans Island for example... These areas could be cut off if the storm hits during a time of high tide. Think Irma which caused great flooding up and down the coast - especially in downtown Charleston.
The good news is that while Dorian is going to slow to a crawl over the Bahamas, it will pick up steam when it makes the turn north on Tuesday. It will gather speed and hopefully stay in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream where is will keep us on the western side but also potentially pick up more warm water (fuel for a hurricane). The interaction with land mass and increasing forward motion should help to weaken the effects of the storm.
So - we all need to make preparations now to protect and preserve. You need to have a plan for departure and not wait until the storm is almost here. If you decide to leave I would not go up or down the coast, but inland. Make sure you have important papers secured in a waterproof container, all vehicles full of fuel, extra water in large bottles, flashlights, batteries, radio, a way to charge your cell phone. Remember that if you use your cell phone during the storm, please keep the call short as the lines tend to get jammed with so many people on the line.
We should expect that we will be placed under a hurricane watch possibly as early as Monday/ Tuesday and a warning shortly thereafter. We are already in the 5 day cone which is still vague, but soon we will be in the 3 day cone - and they are pretty accurate and consistent.
Stay tuned and I will give another report in tomorrow morning - or sooner as warranted.
