12/14/2021
The Latest on Home and Rental Prices
CoreLogic released their Home Price Index report for October, showing that home prices rose by 1.3% from September and 18% year over year. This annual gain is unchanged from the previous report. Detached homes appreciated at an even higher pace of 19.5% year over year.
The unchanged 18% annual figure for October follows suit with recent appreciation data released by both CaseShiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which seem to reflect that we’ve reached the maximum year over year gains. Note this does not mean that home prices are going to decline. It simply means we may see slower month over month gains and that home prices may rise at a more modest pace.
Within the report, the hottest markets were Phoenix (+31%), Las Vegas (+24%), and San Diego (+22%).
CoreLogic forecasts that home prices will appreciate 0.2% in November and 2.5% in the year going forward. Yet, they remain conservative in their forecasting and continue to miss on the low side. For example, CoreLogic had forecasted prices for October would rise by 0.1% from September and they actually increased by 1.3%.
Even though CoreLogic only forecasts a 2.5% gain in home prices over the next year, they are certainly the outlier compared to other forecasts. Goldman Sachs expects 16% gains, Zillow anticipates 14%, and Fannie Mae sees prices rising by roughly 7.5%. Mid to high single digit appreciation is definitely attainable and is still
very meaningful for wealth creation. For example, a $400,000 home that appreciated by 8% would result in $32,000 in appreciation gain in just one year.
CoreLogic also conducted a consumer survey, which showed that over half of respondents across every age cohort said that owning a home has always been a goal of theirs. This further supports the outlook that consumer desire for homeownership remains.
Apartment List also released their National Rent Report which showed that rents increased 0.1% in November. While this is the lowest month-over-month growth rate of the year, rents have increased almost 18% year to date. To put this in perspective, rent growth from January to November averaged just 2.6% in the pre-pandemic years from 2017-2019. Although low inventory around the country has made buying a home challenging for
many people, renting is not a better option.