07/07/2023
Housing Recovery Complicates Fed’s Fight Against Inflation
The U.S. housing market is starting to recover, which will raise shelter costs and complicate the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Prospective buyer traffic to new homes has nearly doubled in the past six months, despite still-high mortgage rates and a smaller supply of available homes.
• Sellers are receiving 3.3 offers, on average, for their homes, up from 2.2 in December, the National Association of Realtors said. New home sales jumped 12% in May, while home prices have climbed for three straight months.
• Rising rates make home buying more expensive, slowing demand, but they also make home building more expensive—hurting supply and driving up future prices. Fighting housing inflation with tighter monetary policies “can really backfire” in the long term, Zillow’s Jeff Tucker said.
• Roughly one third of available homes are a new construction. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF is up 38% this year as home builders rise. Toll Brothers stock has gained 58%; Lennar is up 38%; PulteGroup is up 70%; and D.R. Horton has climbed 35%.
• Smaller builders have performed even better. Green Brick Partners, Beazer Homes USA, and M/I Homes, three builders with market values below $3 billion, have returned 134%, 122%, and 89% this year, respectively.
What’s Next: Most builders will report second-quarter earnings in mid-to-late July. Since the housing market began to moderate from its frothy pandemic pace last summer, financial comparisons are expected to become easier in the second half of the year.
—Megan Cassella, Shaina Mishkin, and Janet H. Cho
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