09/11/2026
๐๐จ๐๐๐ฒโ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ ๐๐ก๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐ฒ ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ค ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฒ
Last week, I explained why I track both the 10-year U.S. Treasury and mortgage rates every day.
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ โ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐๐๐ญ ๐๐ฑ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐.
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August and remained at 3.4% year over year, both in line with expectations.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% for the month, slightly above the 0.2% forecast. However, annual Core CPI fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, in line with expectations.
Energy remains an important part of the inflation story. WTI crude oil topped $100 per barrel this week, increasing pressure on fuel costs, inflation expectations, the bond market, and mortgage rates.
๐๐จ, ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐
๐๐๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐โ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ง๐๐ฑ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐๐๐ค?
The report does not guarantee a rate increase, but persistent inflation, strong employment data, and rising energy prices have made a 0.25% Fed rate increase increasingly likely. After todayโs report, financial markets were pricing in about a 70% probability of a quarter-point increase, though those expectations can change quickly.
๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ก๐จ๐ฆ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐ฌ:
The Federal Reserve does not directly set 30-year mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates respond primarily to the bond market, including the 10-year Treasury, mortgage-backed securities, inflation expectations, investor demand, and the mortgage spread.
That means mortgage rates do not have to wait for the Fedโs announcement. The bond market can begin pricing in a potential rate increase before the Fed acts.
It is also possible for the Fed to raise its short-term rate while mortgage rates improve if the bond market believes the increase will help control inflation. Conversely, mortgage rates could move higher if investors believe inflation will remain persistent.
That is why simply asking, โWill the Fed raise rates?โ does not tell us exactly what will happen to mortgage rates.
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐:
๐ How is the 10-year Treasury reacting?
๐ What is happening in the mortgage-backed securities market?
๐ Is the mortgage spread widening or narrowing?
๐ What financing strategy makes sense in todayโs market?
Mortgage rates have increased approximately 0.18 percentage points, or 18 basis points, this week, placing top-tier 30-year fixed rates above 7%.
This morningโs initial bond-market reaction has been modestly positive, but lenders will issue their rate sheets throughout the morning and may adjust pricing as the market develops.
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ก๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ?
As I shared in my recent DMV market update, higher mortgage rates have not caused home values across Maryland and Washington, DC, to collapse. ๐๐๐ซ๐ฒ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐โ๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐๐ฐ๐ข๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐๐ง ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐ $๐๐๐,๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฒ, ๐ฎ๐ฉ ๐.๐% ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ, ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก ๐ฌ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง.
At the same time, some areas have softened, giving buyers more inventory, negotiating room, and opportunities to request seller concessions.
Buyers waiting for lower rates should remember that lower rates could bring more buyers back into the market. That could increase competition and place additional pressure on home prices, especially in areas where inventory remains limited.
For buyers, todayโs market is not a reason to panic or automatically place their plans on hold.
๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฒ.
That strategy could include negotiating the purchase price, requesting seller concessions, using a temporary or permanent rate buydown, or selecting conventional, government, or Non-QM financing based on the buyerโs needs.
The Fedโs decision matters. Inflation matters. The bond market matters. Home prices matter. But the right strategy matters even more.
๐๐ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ค๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐ข๐ง๐ , ๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ , ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ซ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐, ๐ฅ๐๐ญโ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐จ๐๐๐ฒโ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ. ๐ ๐๐๐-๐๐๐-๐๐๐๐