Nathan Samander - Realtor at Realty NW Properties

02/05/2025

I'm back to these market updates after a little over a year off. My last post was a market prediction for 2024, which, like any market prediction, was incorrect. Lol. I was right that rates would drop to around 6%, and also correct that the market would pick up somewhat accordingly.

However, 2024 proved to be the slowest year for real estate activity since 1995. My team had around 10 active listings in the final two months of the year, and despite what we felt was appropriate pricing, they sat on the market far longer than any of us would have predicted or hoped. It took a price reduction or two to get nervous buyers, who felt the uncertainty of the election looming, to schedule showings, and it took several price reductions to get those nervous buyers to commit to writing an offer. Part of this was due to the annual holiday season slowdown, but I feel most of it was due to economic uncertainty and anticipation for the new administration.

Now here we are in 2025, with another prediction. I'll play it safe here and say this trend will likely continue into the spring, at least. I think buyers are desperate for lower rates, and if they dip below 6.5%, house hunting will become competitive. But, if rates stay where they're at, then these buyers will remain picky, and rightfully so.

10/17/2024

Just listed this awesome Salmon Creek home. Very lovingly cared for by the same owners since 1987.

(RMLS) For Sale: 4 beds, 2.5 baths ∙ 2208 sq. ft. ∙ 621 NE 127th St, Vancouver, WA 98685 ∙ $599,000 ∙ MLS # 24136672 ∙ Pride of ownership shines through in this meticulously maintained home, nestled in the...

08/24/2024

Just listed this turnkey home in the Brentwood Darlington neighborhood! New roof, siding, windows, flooring, paint inside and out, and much more.

This 720 square feet Single Family home has 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. It is located at 7230 SE Duke St, Portland, OR.

08/22/2024

Just listed this past week--excellent remodel out in the Mt Tabor area. Feel free to take a look and share.

(RMLS) For Sale: 4 beds, 2 baths ∙ 1814 sq. ft. ∙ 7923 SE Sherman St, Portland, OR 97215 ∙ $614,900 ∙ MLS # 24410366 ∙ Beautifully renovated mid-century ranch in the desirable Mt Tabor area! 4 bedrooms, 2 ...

01/25/2024

Brief 2024 Market Prediction:

This year will certainly be an interesting year for Real Estate and markets as a whole. I hear a lot of talk about the effect an election year will have on the market, but my personal belief is that it will be minimal, outside of a couple of months leading into November.

The star of the show continues to be our inflation metrics, which, as far as we can tell, are about where the Fed wants us to be. With this being the case, we are hearing talk of declining interest rates. And, as per usual, there are people in the real estate industry who are taking this news to the max, implying interest rates will drop to as low as 5%, or even lower. I don’t have the crystal ball, but it is my belief that rates will hover around 6% by mid-to-late 2024, and from there I have no clue. This is what our data suggests, and if it’s true, I expect moderate appreciation between 3-5% this year, depending on the area.

By the way, I am now licensed in the state of Oregon, so I’m happy to help you regardless of which side of the river you’re on :)

08/09/2023

8/9/2023 Clark County Market Update:

Despite fluctuations in interest rates, listings are still selling very quickly and leverage remains firmly with home sellers.

Some industry experts believe the "rubber band is being pulled back" with each rate increase. In other words, if rates drop, they anticipate the pent-up demand will result in a surge in market activity, similar to 2021. We will have to wait and see.

Typically July is the slowest summer month for real estate, and 2023 was no exception. As a result, we are experiencing an uptick in listing activity consistent with previous years, and anticipate this activity to carry throughout September.

07/20/2023

Inman: "Existing-home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.16M as the median sales price climbed to $410K, or just 0.9% below the highest median recorded by the National Association of Realtors".

Prices are still climbing despite the high interest rates (relative to the current prices). Demand is so strong and inventory is so low, that I don't see this changing any time soon.

07/12/2023

According to data from CoreLogic, annual US home price appreciation has dipped below 2 percent for the first time in 11 years. Given the ongoing discussion about rising interest rates, this comes as no surprise. I'd like to remind everyone that a healthy, balanced market historically sees 3-4 percent annual appreciation. And 2 percent on historically high prices is still no slouch.

However, I believe Clark County will remain the exception to the rule, and continue to appreciate at a rate higher than the national average. We have too much pent-up demand, too little inventory, and too many relocation buyers coming from more inflated markets for our growth the stagnate.

06/08/2023

This morning, while looking at a listing a buyer sent me, I noticed something strange in the private remarks: "Seller to review all offers on Monday, June 12th. Highest & best. No escalations. If going over list price, 22AD is encouraged." We are used to seeing multiple offers again as agents, but the fabled 22AD--better known as the Low Appraisal Addendum--appears to be making a return.

Personally, I'm unsure as to whether or not this will become. normal again; interest rates have very recently surpassed 7%, and the market has yet to catch up to this. Last time this happened (winter of 2022), market activity halted to a standstill. The main difference this time is there is a pool of buyers who have accepted the new normal interest rates and it is the hottest time of the year to sell. Inventory is still exceptionally low, and people are desperate to get their piece of the pie. A little uptick in rates--from 6.5% to 7%--is less shocking than it used to be.

I'm mostly interested in whether or not this slows the market back down in the coming months, or if it'll continue with a full head of steam until the inevitable cold-weather slowdown.

05/25/2023

Home values have fallen in the Bay area by 10.1%, while prices in Miami have increased by 10.9% year over year--a substantial gap that's telling of a greater theme in the markets. It is more important than ever to be aware of local market conditions; an article written on the Seattle market is not applicable to the Vancouver housing market. Remote work and tight inventory has changed the landscape of real estate appreciation, and a one-size-fits-all article will not sufficiently inform the public. Local experts who are in tune with what's happening in their own backyard will become increasingly valuable as a result.

While prices fall in some areas, we are seeing an increase in buyer activity locally and are even experiencing bidding wars again. There's an influx of buyers from Portland, Seattle, and all over California relocating to SW Washington for the weather, taxes, and close proximity to the outdoors and large metropolitans. And with buyers used to the new interest rates, what little we see for sale on the market around here is quickly snatched up.

04/26/2023

March data has been released, citing what appears to be positive news for real estate. New home sale purchases have increased 9.6% in the month of March, leading to a one year high. This is the 4th consecutive month where market activity has increased. All positive signs, but many of these articles are not mentioning that almost any activity would have been an increase, considering how slow the market has been the past few months. That, coupled with the transition from Winter to Spring, makes it a logical leap.

Interest rates had also briefly dipped below 6% during March, which certainly added to the surge. I had buyers lock in around 5.75-5.99%, only for them to close and see new interest rates hover around the 6.5% mark. I'm curious how the nice weather and higher rates will interact as we move into the summer. Time will tell.

04/12/2023

A quote from an article I read this morning: "Freddie Mac’s quarterly housing outlook pulse survey evaluates public sentiment on housing-related issues. In the first quarter of 2023, market confidence rebounded somewhat quarter-over-quarter, after reaching its lowest point since tracking began in March 2020, while payment concerns remained relatively unchanged among both homeowners and renters."

Some other statistics worth noting:

"43% are confident the housing market will remain strong over the next year. This is up 9 percentage points from last quarter, but down 15 percentage points compared to last year."
"59% of renters and 28% of homeowners spend more than 30% of their monthly income on housing."
"54% are concerned about making housing payments. This is true for 70% of renters and 44% of homeowners."
"18% say they are likely to buy a home in the next six months."
"14% of homeowners say they are likely to sell in the next six months."
"16% of homeowners say they are likely to refinance in the next six months."

Link to full article:

In the first quarter of 2023, consumer confidence rebounds slightly while payment concerns and market activity remain largely unchanged.