10/09/2026
By Tyson Kroon:
I didn't put a full Mat-Su market report out this week. Because the data right now is lying to us about where the market is and where it is going.
Telling you what happened over the last 6 or even 3 months is not going to help anyone. You need to know where we are today and where it could be going.
Anyone using traditional canned reports is going to tell you the Mat-Su market looks fine because closed sales barely moved and inventory is low, but those reports look at data over 3-6 months. I use those, they matter, but in time like this you have to look beyond historical data. We hit a cliff in August that the numbers aren't showing yet.
Palmer and Wasilla closed 168 homes in June and 150 in September. Not a huge swing. The problem is that closings are a rearview mirror and we need a crystal ball. Those deals went under contract a month or more before they closed, back when rates were lower and buyers were busier and more plentiful. We need to look closer..
After 15 years and thousands of deals, I have learned to watch contracts closely, because that's where the market tells you what's coming.
New pending sales in Palmer and Wasilla went from 163 in June to 115 in September, about 30% lower.
In the $450K to $600K range they fell from 54 to 24.
Cancellations nearly doubled over the same stretch.
Price Reductions Shot Up. (242 in the last week statewide)
Days on Market is way up and homes are selling for about 96-97% of original list price instead of 99-101% (Note: that does not account for concessions).
The Market is Shifting
Rates are a big part of it. Freddie Mac has the 30 year fixed at 7.40% this week, up from 6.30% a year ago and the highest since November 2023.
Nationally, purchase mortgage applications were 15% below last year in the first week of October, and refinance applications were down 56%.
My prediction, and I'm labeling it as exactly that: closings drop this fall and winter to catch up with what contracts already told us and most buyers remain sidelined waiting not only for rates to ease but for home prices to correct.
Some see all this as a sign of a crash or as bad news but I don't see a crash in these numbers, not at all. The pandemic pulled years of appreciation forward artificially, and the market is drifting back toward a normal pace of around 4-6% a year. It's been doing that slowly, but we just got a little extra push in September. I say that's a very good thing.
Without getting into all the math between inflated covid appreciation and normal appreciation over the last 6 years - you are looking at about a 13% correction in our area if prices drop to what they would have been under normal appreciation (no Covid).
So, not the Jackpot some sellers hit over the last few years, but certainly not a bad place to be for most sellers either.
Buyers, you are seeing better prices and have more leverage right now than you've had in years, even at these rates. Waiting may not be the best move, but some of you may have to. Consider Buy Downs and Seller Concessions over pure price cuts. It could take years to make up for what a rate buy down can do for you.
Sellers: Those who bought before 2020, you are still ahead of where normal appreciation would have put you and way ahead of what you paid, so price it right from day one and you'll sell. But the jackpot days are over, at least for now. Be prepared to earn a normal amount of equity on your home and watch out of anyone willing to overprice it.
Agents and lenders, deals are going to take longer and need more work, so build your business around longer turn times and earn your paycheck. Create value and you'll be ok.
October is running a hair ahead of September so far, with 35 new pending's in the first eight days. That's too early to call a bottom, but I'm watching it closely. If you want to talk through your own situation, message me.
