10/03/2026
Rates ended the week higher, even after Friday's jobs report missed expectations by a wide margin.
Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, far short of the 90,000 expected, and on its own that would normally send rates lower. It did, briefly. But the unemployment rate told a different story. The widely quoted move from 4.1% to 4.2% only shows up after rounding. The unrounded number rose from 4.141% to 4.175%, and adjusted for growth in the labor force, it would have actually been 3.951%. Far from weak.
Earlier in the week, rates were already under pressure. Wednesday brought the highest average 30 year fixed rate since November 1, 2023, while the 10 year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002. Thursday brought some relief, helped by renewed concern over French government debt, an old worry that once kept U.S. rates lower for longer.
That relief did not last. French yields reversed course Friday afternoon, oil prices ticked up, and mortgage lenders raised rates back toward the week's highs.
The 30 year fixed finished the week at 7.57%, up from 7.43% the Friday before. Next week's calendar is lighter, with ISM services data, the Fed's September meeting minutes, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment, none carrying the weight of this week's jobs report.
If you or a client is sitting on a decision, this is the week to talk it through.
Fidelity Residential is a dba of PFN Lending Group, Inc., an Equal Housing Lender. NMLS #103098. Educational only. Not a commitment to lend.