06/13/2026
🏠 Mortgage,Housing & Economic Update — Week of June 12, 2026
Big week. A lot of moving parts. Here's what it all means if you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on the market:
🔥 Inflation hit a 3-year high — and rates felt it
The government released May's inflation report on Wednesday, and it came in hot. Prices are now rising at 4.2% per year — the highest rate since early 2023. The biggest culprit? Energy. Gasoline is up over 40% from a year ago.That's pushing up the cost of anything that gets shipped, manufactured, or powered.
The good news buried in the report: core inflation (which strips out food and energy) only rose 0.2% for the month — below what economists expected. Shelter costs also slowed down significantly. Some economists are now saying May could be the peak of this inflation spike — especially since gas prices have actually been coming down in June.
The not-so-good news: some Wall Street analysts are now saying the Fed's next move could be a rate HIKE — not a cut — if inflation doesn't cool quickly.
📈 Mortgage rates — still in the mid-to-upper 6s
Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed at 6.52% — up slightly from 6.48% last week. But daily trackers on Friday were showing rates closer to 6.55% after the inflation report.
Here's where things stand right now:
→ 30-year fixed: ~6.52–6.60%
→ 15-year fixed: 5.84%
→ 30-year FHA: 6.27%
→ Still about 32 bps better than a year ago (6.84%)
One thing working in your favor: the rates you see advertised this week may actually be a little better than these averages — oil prices dipped on Thursday on some renewed Iran peace signals, and that helped pull rates down slightly from mid-week highs.
🏡 Housing market — surprisingly strong
Here's the headline that got overlooked because of the inflation report: existing home sales just hit a 5-month high.
In May, 4.17 million homes were sold (annualized) — up 3.2% from April and the best pace since December. The median home price came in at $429,300, up 1.3% from a year ago. That's the 35th month in a row of year-over-year price gains.
The really important number: the Housing Affordability Index rose to 105.6 — the first time it's been above 100 since late 2024. What that means in plain English: the typical household with a median income can now technically afford the median-priced home. That's a big deal after two years of affordability being stretched.
More homes are also coming onto the market — inventory is up 3.3% from last month, giving buyers more choices than they've had in a while.
🏦 The Fed meets this week — Tuesday & Wednesday
This is the big one. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 16–17. Nobody expects him to change rates — there's a 98% probability of a hold according to market pricing.
What everyone IS watching: the dot plot (the Fed's forecast for where rates are going) and Warsh's first press conference. His tone and words will tell us a lot about whether rate cuts are possible later this year — or whether we might actually see a hike in 2027.
📅 What to watch this week
→ June 17 — Fed decision + Warsh's first press conference (the most important event for rates this summer)
→ Iran peace negotiations — still the wildcard for oil and inflation
→ June 25 — May PCE inflation report (the Fed's preferred inflation measure)
Bottom line: inflation is high, but there are signs it may be peaking. Housing is holding up better than expected. Rates are frustratingly sticky in the mid-6s. The Fed meeting this week will set the tone for the rest of 2026.
Have questions about buying or selling in this market? Drop them in the comments or send me a message. 👇
