10/23/2022
Looks like the possibility of a turbulent winter this year, I will be working alone unlike last year. Rest assured, as usual I’ll be on top of my game, communicating ahead of the storm with each of you and doing my best to meet all of your needs! Looking forwward to working with you all again this year, have a safe and happy winter!
*** THE 2022-2023 WINTER FORECAST FOR WESTERN & CENTRAL MASS ***
This coming winter is expected to feature a third consecutive winter with La Nina conditions. This is something that is quite rare and the last such winter like this was during the Winter of 2000-2001.
The weather pattern for this winter could consist of frequent upper level high pressure systems over Alaska into western Canada and frequent upper level troughs that could be centered from the Great Lakes region into the Northeastern United States. This is the type of weather pattern you look for when someone is forecasting a colder than average winter with above average snowfall.
One big item that could throw the entire winter into flux is the impact from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga volcano which erupted back in January. This volcano threw a massive amount of extra water v***r into the atmosphere that will remain in place for a few years to come. This extra water v***r could lead to a much more active subtropical jet stream with more moisture to work with than what we would find in an average La Nina year.
Because of this, I think that we may have a quite active weather pattern that features some quite notable coastal storms that are able to tap into the extra moisture in the atmosphere and the above average ocean water temperatures off of the New England coast. This means that these storms could not only strengthen significantly, but they could also contain quite a bit of moisture and be able to put down quite a bit in the way of precipitation.
From what I've been looking at and researching in terms of weather this winter. THIS IS WHAT COULD UNFOLD FOR WESTERN & CENTRAL MASS -
I think that we may be looking at a winter that starts off early and quickly with potentially our first accumulating snow of the season occurring by or before Thanksgiving.
NOVEMBER & DECEMBER look colder than average with the potential for temperatures that are about 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit below average in November and possibly 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit below average in December (December looks COLD!!).
As for snowfall, right now, November looks about average for snowfall across the entire area. December, however, looks like it could end up being above average for snowfall with amounts that are about 5 to 10 inches above average.
JANUARY - Based on other winters that are similar to what could be coming for this one, January could start out quite cold (5 to 10 degrees below average), however, temperatures may end up above average for the second half of the month. This will possibly lead to January being about average for temperatures, as a whole.
Snowfall for January looks like it could be about average across the entire area.
FEBRUARY could start out warmer than average with temperatures that are up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit above average, however, the second part of the month could end up well below average with temperatures that could be up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit below average.
Snowfall for February looks like it could be about average to a little above average. This means that I think that we could end up with snow totals that are up to 5 inches above average for the month.
MARCH could be quite a cold month with temperatures that are up to 5 degrees below average for the month. The worst of the cold could end up towards the early part of the month and then again at the end of the month with a reprieve possible right at mid-month.
We are going to have to REALLY watch March as it could be quite the stormy and snowy month. Past third year La Ninas like we're about to have ended up VERY snowy in March. At this point, I'm forecasting total snowfall for March that’s about 5 to 10 inches above average.
IN SUMMARY - The winter of 2022 to 2023 could end up being about 1 to 2 degrees below average for temperature as a whole with the worst of the cold occurring in December and then again in March.
As for snowfall, I'm forecasting total snow amounts that are about 10 to 20 inches above average across the entire area. You can find a more “detailed” map of what I’m forecasting in terms of total snowfall below.
THANK YOU: As always, I thank you for your continued support. If it were not for you, I would not be able to do a job that I love so very much – forecasting the weather for Western and Central Mass. Please help us alleviate the costs required for producing these weather forecasts for Western and Central Mass by donating. Thank you so much in advance!!
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