08/01/2026
Vermont housing in 2026 gets a C+.
Every few months a buyer asks me some version of the same question. Is now actually a good time to buy, or does it just feel impossible?
The honest answer isn't one number. Affordability is several forces pulling in different directions at once, and the honest answer depends on which ones you weigh most heavily.
So I put together a report card. Grades assigned category by category, based on real Vermont and Chittenden County data. I'm grading honestly rather than optimistically, because a report card where everything gets a B+ isn't a report card, it's a promotional piece.
Home Prices: C+
Median single-family sale price in Chittenden County is $575,000, up 1.1% year over year. Vermont never had the 2021-2022 speculative run-up that Austin, Phoenix, and much of Florida did, so we're not in the middle of a correction now either. Prices are elevated but they aren't climbing so fast that waiting is likely to reward you.
Mortgage Rates: C-
Thirty-year fixed rates are hovering around 6.75%. Historically not extreme (rates were higher through much of the 1990s), but the math is genuinely tough. On a $500K mortgage, a single point drop from 6.75% to 5.75% saves over $300 a month and nearly $115,000 over the life of the loan. Trying to time rates is a losing game. If you can afford the payment today, you can buy today.
Inventory: C+
Chittenden County had 154 active listings in April, up modestly from 146 a year ago. Days on market is 23 to 28 across every price band. A functional market, not a broken one. But competitive segments are tight. Winooski has more homes currently pending than actively listed. Essex Junction has 41 pending against 36 active. In those segments, buyers still need to move fast.
Wage Growth vs. Housing Costs: B-
This is the category most affordability headlines skip. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Vermont wages grew 5.7% from June 2025 to June 2026. Home prices grew about 5.4% over the same period. For the first time in several years, wages are keeping pace with prices. That's a real shift.
The multi-year picture is still weaker. The gap that accumulated between 2020 and 2024 is real. Twelve months of parity doesn't undo four years of divergence. But the direction has changed and that matters more than most affordability content acknowledges.
Down Payment & Assistance Programs: B+
Most buyers misunderstand VHFA. The common assumption is that it's a down payment assistance program that helps a small number of low-income buyers. In practice, most of the buyers I work with who qualify for VHFA programming don't qualify for down payment assistance itself. What they qualify for is a meaningfully better interest rate than they'd get on a standard conventional mortgage. On a $500K loan, even a half-point rate improvement saves roughly $150 a month and tens of thousands over the life of the loan.
If you're buying in Vermont and you haven't asked a lender specifically about VHFA options, you're leaving money on the table.
The Overall Grade: C+
Vermont housing in 2026 is not easy. Prices are elevated, rates are high, inventory is tight in the segments most buyers actually want. That's the honest picture.
But it isn't broken either. Wages are keeping pace with prices for the first time in years. Rate improvements through VHFA are available to more buyers than most people realize. And the market is functional, clearing efficiently, and generally rewarding buyers and sellers who make good decisions.
A C+ market is a market where the strategy matters. The buyers I see succeeding in 2026 are the ones who work with a lender to understand every dollar of their real monthly payment before offering, who explore VHFA and other programs, who buy at their comfortable number rather than their qualifying number, and who move decisively when the right home appears.
Full breakdown on the blog: https://davidstanleyrealty.com/blog/vermont-housing-affordability-report-card