08/07/2026
The Fed cutting rates in September does not mean your mortgage rate drops.
Most people have this backwards, and it costs them.
Here is what happened this morning. July payrolls came in at NEGATIVE 23,000 jobs. Economists were expecting a gain of about 83,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised May and June down by a combined 103,000.
Unemployment actually ticked down to 4.1%. But only because labor force participation fell to 61.4%, the lowest in over five years. Fewer people are being counted as looking for work.
Markets moved toward a September cut within minutes.
Now the part that matters:
The Fed sets the overnight rate. That is what banks charge each other for one night. Your 30-year mortgage is not priced off it.
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury. Bond investors move on growth and inflation expectations, usually weeks before the Fed does anything. By the time the announcement comes, the move has already happened.
Freddie Mac had the 30-year at 6.69% this week, the highest since July 2025. Weak jobs data pushes yields down. So watch the bond market, not the press conference.
What this means if you own a home and have been putting off the decision:
If rates ease this fall, the buyers who sat out all summer come back first. Inventory is already building. Sellers who list into that early demand compete with fewer homes than the ones who wait for spring.
Serious question for the homeowners here — what is actually holding you back? The rate on your next house, or not knowing what this one is worth right now? I read every comment.
And if you have been waiting on rates to sell, send me the word FALL. I will send back a realistic price range for your home this fall. A range, not a single number, because your price depends on condition, timing, and what you are trying to accomplish.
No appointment. No pitch. Just the numbers.
Glen Thompson | REALTOR® | Marine Corps Veteran | KBT Realty Group | Powered by PLACE | Brokered by Keller Williams Innovate | 910-601-1351 | [email protected]