Arcudi 4 Homes

02/29/2024

Happy Leep Year Enjoy your extra day.

02/14/2024

Roses are red violets are blue thinking of buying or selling call you know who ? Wishing all my Family, Friends and Clients a Happy Valentine’s Day

02/12/2024

FYI People

Rates are improving today. 30-year jumbo is back to about 6.375%, and 7 arm is about 6.125%. The 10% down jumbo, up to $2mil loan

01/20/2024

FYI

Mortgage applications started the year off strong as rates dropped. Overall apps were up 10.4%, with purchase apps rising 9% for the week.

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10/02/2022

Economic update for the week ending October 1, 2022
Stock markets suffered the third week of steep losses - High inflation and a determined Federal Reserve has led to the highest percentage increases in interest rates in history. They are higher in percentage increase than in 1980 while not so in number. This has led to steep stock losses this year, and investors seem to be in a panic. September marked the worst month for stocks since the announcement of the COVID shutdowns in March of 2020, the dot.com bust in 2002, and The Great Recession in 2008. At the same time, the job market is robust. Unemployment is near record lows. There are more than two jobs for every available worker looking for a job. With little fear of being unemployed, people are still spending, adding to inflationary pressure.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 28,725.51, down 3% from 29,590.41 last week. It is down 21.0% year-to-date.
The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,585.62, down 2.9% from 3,693.23 last week. The S&P is down 23.6% year-to-date.
The NASDAQ closed the week at 10,575.62, down 2.7% from 10,867.94 last week. It is down 32.4% year-to-date.
U.S. Treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.69%, up from 3.69% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.61%, up from 3.61% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates for the most popular loan products as of September 29, 2022, were as follows:

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.70%, up from 6.29% last week.
The 15-year fixed was 5.96%, up from 5.44% last week.
The 5-year ARM was 5.30%, up from 4.97% last week. Rates were higher at the end of the week.
Economic update for the month ending September 30, 2020

Stock markets suffered worst monthly losses since announcement of the pandemic shutdowns - September marked the worst month for the Dow since March of 2020, when the COVID shutdowns were announced. The S&P had its worst September since the 2002 dot.com bust and is on track for its worst yearly loss since The Great Recession in 2008. The Nasdaq is already down more than 30% for the year. With inflation not showing signs of retreating and a Fed that has indicated that they will continue to raise interest rates to cool the economy and curb inflation, investors have begun to panic. Interest rates shot up further in September. The pace of rate hikes, while not as large in number as in the 1980s, has been the highest in percentage increase in history. At the same time, the jobs market is robust. Unemployment is near historic low levels. There are more than two jobs for every applicant. With little fear of becoming unemployed, people are out spending which is fueling inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the month at 28,725.51, down 8.2% from 31,510.43 on June 30. It's down 21% year-to-date.
The S&P 500 closed the month at 3,585.62, down 9.4% from 3,955.29 last month. The S&P is down 23.6% year-to-date.
The NASDAQ closed the month at 10,575.62, down 10.5% from 11,816.20 last month. It is down 32.4 year-to-date.
U.S. Treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the month yielding 3.83%, up from 3.15% last month. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the month at 3.75%, up from 3.27% last month. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates - The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates as of September 29, 2022 for the most popular loan products were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.70%, up from 5.66% at the end of July. The 15-year fixed was 5.96%, up from 4.98% last month. The 5-year ARM was 5.30%, up from 4.51% last month.

The September jobs report will be released next Friday. That will be a good indicator of whether the fed rate hikes are causing employers to slow the pace of hiring. So far that has not happened. With unemployment near a 50-year low, wages are increasing due to a labor shortage. There are over two job openings for every person looking for a job. The tight labor market is one of the conditions that is fueling inflation.

U.S. existing-home sales - The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 4.80 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in August, down 0.4% month-over-month from the annualized sales in July. Year-over-year sales were down 19.9% from an annualized rate of 5.99 million in August 2021. The median price for a home in the U.S. in August was $389,950, up 7.7% from $361,500 one year ago. Month-over-month the median price dropped in July and August from the all-time high of $413,800 in June. August marked a record 126 consecutive months of year-over-year increases in the median price. There was a 3.2-month supply of homes for sale in August, up from a 2.6-month supply last August. First-time buyersaccounted for 29% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 16% of all sales. All-cash purchases accounted for 24% of all sales. Foreclosure and short sales accounted for less than 1% of all sales, remaining at a historic low.

California existing-home sales - The California Association of Realtors reported that existing- home sales totaled 313,540 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis in August, down 24.4% from August 2021, when 414,860 homes sold on an annualized basis. Pending sales jumped 16.6% month-over-month in August, so there will be more closings in September. Year-to-date existing-home sales are down 14.9%. The statewide median price paid for a home in August was $839,460, up 1.4% from $827,940 in August 2021. There was a 2.9-month supply of homes for sale in August, down from a 3.2-month supply of homes for sale in July and up from a 1.9-month supply one year ago. Interest rates rose dramatically in September. Pending home sales (new contracts) have slowed. The California Association of Realtors will not release pending sales figures for September until mid-October, but they will be down.

08/27/2022

Economic Update for the week ending August 27, 2022

Stocks sold off Friday to end the week down sharply - After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday the Dow dropped more than 1,000 points, a 3% drop. The S&P dropped by 3.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped 3.9% In his speech he said that “there could be some pain for consumers and businesses” as the fed uses higher interest rates to fight inflation. He also said that there would be “forceful and rapid action on inflation”. He reiterated the desire to quickly attack inflation to bring it back to the Fed target range of 2% and that the tight jobs market is something they need to cool. He spoke about the need to get the unemployment rate higher to cool wage growth and consumer spending. The unemployment rate is currently at a 3.5%, a 50-year low. The August jobs report will be released next Friday. Investors had felt that rate hikes would moderate as there has been some signs of inflation moderating, but Powell’s speech made it clear that holding back was not what the Fed has in mind. It is possible that he used such an inflammatory message to frighten businesses, consumers and investors in hopes that they would all pull back on the rapid pace of hiring, spending, and investing that has added to overheating the economy fueling inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 32,283.49, down 4.2% from 33,706.44 last week. It is down 11.2% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,057.66, down 4% from 4,228.48 last week. The S&P is down 14.9% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 12,141.71, down 5.1% from 12,795.22 last week. It is down 22.4% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.04%, up from 2.98% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.21%, almost unchanged from 3.22% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates as of August 25, 2022, for the most popular loan products were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.55%, up from 5.13% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.85%, up from 4.55% last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.36% down from 4.39% last week.

08/06/2022

Economic update for the week ending August 6, 2022

The U.S. economy added 528,000 new jobs in July - The Department of Labor and Statistics reported that 528,000 new jobs were added in July. This massive number of new jobs created was over double the 250,000 new jobs that analysts had expected! The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, a52-year low. The labor-force participation rate (the share of workers with a job or actively looking for a job) was 62.1% in July, its third consecutive monthly decline. It is well below the 63.6% level before the pandemic. Average hourly wages increased 5.2% from one year ago. While such a strong jobs report is good news, it puts more pressure on inflation. Due to strong job growth and such low unemployment, the country is experiencing a labor shortage that is forcing wages higher. More people working and higher wages increases consumer spending,which drives prices up. This report was not in line with what the Federal Reserve had hoped. The goal of the Fed is to slow the economy to lower spending and reduce inflation. When the Fed increases interest rates borrowing costs to business increase. Increased bowering costs lower profits and historically cause companies to scale back on hiring. This has not been the case over the past several months. This report will probably cause the Fed to be even more aggressive with interest rate increases in order to cool the jobs market.


Stock markets ended the week slightly higher – Stocks ended the week mixed with the S&P and Dow almost unchanged and the NASDAQ up over 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 32,803.47, down 0.1% from 32,845.I4 last week. It is down 9.7% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,145.19, up 0.4% from 4,130.29 last week. The S&P is down 13% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 12,657.56, up 2.1% from 12,390.69 last week. It is down 19.1% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields higher this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.83%, up from 2.67% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.06%, up from 3.0% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields. Unfortunately, on Friday after the release of the July job report yields jumped higher.

Mortgage rates – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates as of August 4, 2022, for the most popular loan products were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.99%, down from 5.30% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.26%, down from 4.58% last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.25%, down from 4.29% last week. While everyone was encouraged that the 30-year dropped under 5% for the first time in three months, rates rose back up about 1/4% after the jobs report was announced.

07/30/2022

Economic update for the week ending July 30, 2022

Stock markets had an incredible week - Stock markets ended the week higher despite a .75% rate hike by the Fed and a second quarterly decline in GDP. The Fed hiked its key interest rates by .75% on Wednesday. Some investors feared a full one percent rise after the strong jobs report for June and the CPI increase of 9.1% announced earlier in the month. Fed Chairman Powell also issued remarks that led investors to believe that future rate hikes will be smaller and less often. He stated that the Fed has moved from accommodative to neutral interest rate levels. This tightening has been at the quickest pace ever. The Federal Funds rate is now 2.25%-2.5%, up from 0%-.25% in February. The rate was 1.50%-1.75% before the pandemic and was dropped to 0%-25% when the shutdowns were announced. You have to take the quickest pace with a grain of salt due to the drastic drop to near zero percent at the start of the pandemic that lasted almost two years. The second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped 0.9%, its second consecutive quarter of contraction. This also supported that interest rate hikes were working to slow the economy to combat inflation. Oil prices also dropped 6.9% in July. Second quarter corporate profits also came in strong with 72% of companies exceeding expectations. Energy companies reported record profits. Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple also reported stellar profits. All in all July marked the strongest July in years and the strongest July jump in the S&P since 1939. This followed the weakest June in decades. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 32,845.14, up 3% from 31,899.29 last week. It is down 9.6% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 4,130.29, up 4.3% from 3,961.64 last week. The S&P is down 13.3% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 12,390.69, up 4.7% from 11,834.11 last week. It is down 20.8% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields higher this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.67%, down from 3.00% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.0%, down from 3.10% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates as of July 28, 2022, for the most popular loan products were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.30%, down from 5.54% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.58%, down from 4.75% last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.29%, down from 4.31% last week.

Have a great weekend!

07/16/2022

Economic update for the week ending July 16, 2022

Stock markets ended a volatile week slightly lower – Stocks dropped and interest rates jumped after the June CPI report was released on Wednesday. The report shocked experts who had previously seen signs that inflation may have been moderating. To their surprise, the CPI report showed that consumer prices jumped from 8.6% in May to 9.1% in June, the highest reading since 1981. Mortgage interest rates, which had dropped about ½% from their peak on June 14, started to rise last Friday after the June jobs report showed that hiring had beat expectations by over 100,000 new jobs and continued to rise following the CPI report. The brisk rate of hiring, low unemployment, and soaring inflation disappointed investors who had hoped that interest rate hikes and other tightening measures would begin to cool the overheated economy and curb inflation. Due to inflation, good news is bad news, as the stronger the economy is the more people spend which causes inflation. On Friday, stocks surged on good news, which has not been the case lately, when it was announced that Retail Sales increased 1% month-over-month in June and rose 8.4% from one year ago. The report showed that consumers have not been swayed by negative economic predictions and are not cutting spending because they have a high amount of savings and their wages are rising. Early second quarter corporate profits have also beat expectations. The Fed reported that import prices fell slightly in June as the strong dollar and moderating oil prices may be helping inflationary pressures. Fed officials also made comments which dispelled investors’ fears of a full one percentage point interest rate hike at its next meeting. That does not seem to be their plan based on their comments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 31,288.26, down 0.2% from 31,338.15 last week. It is down 13.9% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,863.19, down 1.1% from 3,899.38 last week. The S&P is down 19.0% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 11,452.42, down 1.6% from 11,635.31 last week. It is down 26.8% year-to-date.

U.S. Treasury bond yields higher this week - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 2.93%, down from 3.09% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.10%, down from 3.27% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.

Mortgage rates – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates as of July 14, 2022, for the most popular loan products were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.51%, up from 5.30% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.67%, up from 4.45% last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.35%, up from 4.19% last week.
California home sales statistics for June will be released next week from the California Association of Real Estate. U.S. home sales will be released by the National Association of Real Estate the week of the 21st. You can get local sales statistics for June at RodeoRe.com. You can search the market trends tab for your city or zip code.

Have a great weekend!

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06/25/2022

Economic Update for the week ending June 25, 2022


Stock markets soared to rebound from three straight weeks of steep losses - Stocks markets jumped again on Friday and posted their second best week of the year. Comments from Federal Reserve officials and testimony by Fed Chairman Powell to Congress this week led investors to believe that future rate hikes would not be as severe as previously thought. Powell also testified that he felt that even if there were to be a recession, which he felt could be avoided, it would be mild. He quoted many reasons for his belief in the strength of the economy which included: the strong position of U.S. banks, the strength of labor markets, the strength of the housing market and home equity, and a strong dollar. A key inflation index showed that commodity prices have fallen as recession fears have grown, indicating that the rate hikes are working and that inflation may be moderating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 31,500.68 up 5.4% from 29,888.78 last week. It is down 13.3% year-to-date. The S&P 500 closed the week at 3,911.74, up 6.5% from 3,674.84 last week. The S&P is down 18.0% year-to-date. The NASDAQ closed the week at 11,609.62, down 7.6% from 10,789.35 last week. It is down 25.8% year-to-date.


U.S. Treasury bond yields - The 10-year treasury bond closed the week yielding 3.13%, down from 3.25% last week. The 30-year treasury bond yield ended the week at 3.26%, down from 3.30% last week. We watch bond yields because mortgage rates often follow treasury bond yields.


Mortgage rates – The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey reported that mortgage rates as of June 23, 2022, for the most popular loan products were as follows: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.81%, up from 5.78% last week. The 15-year fixed was 4.92%, up from 4.81% last week. The 5-year ARM was 4.41%, up from 4.33% last week.


U.S. existing-home sales - The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales totaled 5.41 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in May, down 3.4% month-over-month from the annualized number of sales in April. Year-over-year sales were down 8.6% from the annualized rate of 5.92 million in May 2021. The median price of a home in the U.S. in April was $407,600, up 14.8% from $355,000 one year ago. May marked a record 123 consecutive month of year-over-year increases in the median price. Inventory levels increased 12.6% from April, but are still 4.1% below the amount of homes for sale in May 2021. There was a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale in May, up slightly from a 2.5 month supply last May. First-time buyers accounted for 27% of all sales. Investors and second-home purchases accounted for 16% of all sales. All-cash purchases accounted for 25% of all sales. Foreclosure and short-sales accounted for less than 1% of all sales remaining at a historic low.
Have a great weekend!