10/28/2024
We are officially in Fall mode, with Halloween this week and Thanksgiving around the corner.
Below is a recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the “Month of August 2024”.
Source; OC Register/ Core-Logic/DQ News 10/27/2024.
Home Prices
Resale Homes +5.4%, Resale Condos +3.8% & New Home Sales +45.3%
Median OC home price is $1,175,000
74% of OC homes listed are $1,000,000+
32% of all OC homes listed are $2,000,000+
When the jobless rate is at 5% or less, CA home prices rose 10%
When the jobless rate is at 9% or more, CA home prices rose 1%
Sales Volume
Resale Homes -9.2, Resale Condos +4.4% & New Home Sales -49.7%
Home sales volume is 2,047, down versus 1 year ago
Inventory is at 3,694 up versus last week
Average Days on Market: 70
Interest Rates
30-year fixed Mortgage Rate is 6.54%, up 10 points vs last week
15-year fixed Rate is 5.71%, up 8 basis points versus last week
Average Home Payment is $5,941 up from $5,788 VLY
88.5% of US homeowners have an IR below 6%
78.7% of US homeowners have an IR below 5%
59.4% of US homeowners have an IR below 4%
22.6% of US homeowners have an IR below 3%
2024 Conforming FHA Loan Limit: $766,550 in LA/SD/OC
2024 Conforming FHA Loan Limit: $644,000 in the Inland Empire
History of Interest Rates
Average 30-years Interest Rate since 1971: 7.8%
Average 30-year Interest Rate in the 2010’s: 4.1%
Average 30-year Interest Rate in the 2000’s: 6.9%
Average 30-year Interest Rate in the 90’s: 8.1%
Average 30-year Interest Rate in the 80’s: 12.7%
Southern California 6-County Median Home Prices
Orange County median home price is $1,210,000
San Diego median home price is $890,000
Los Angeles median home price is $890,000
Ventura median home price is $850,000
SoCal median home price is $775,000
Riverside median home price is $580,000
San Bernardino median home price is $475,000
US median home Price is $399,000
Troubled Waters Ahead?
Only 17% on California Home Buyers can afford to buy median priced home
For 20% of California households, 50% of their paycheck goes to housing
Buying a home in LA or OC costs 10x more than a typical family earns in a year
Renting in California costs $2.96 a sq foot, 5th highest in the nation
65% of Americans, making $60k+, facing financial hardship
25% of Americans, making $150k+, facing financial hardship
Californians skipping bills at highest level since 2021
An income of $349,200 is needed to buy an OC median priced home (5/2024)
California job losses jump 20% versus one year ago (5/2024)
California has the highest unemployment in the nation, 5.3%
There were 32,905 California foreclosures in 2023, 2nd in the nation
20% of SoCal commercial office space is vacant
LA has 51 million square feet of empty office space
OC has 18 million square feet of empty office space
Only 15% of Californians can afford to buy a home
California has 70% of the highest priced zip codes in the nation!
2024 Real Estate Pricing Forecast
CAR forecasts a 6.2% increase in home prices
Core Logic forecasts a 5.7% increase in home prices
2025 Real Estate Sales Forecast
CAR forecasts a 10% increase in home sales
Market Trends
Home prices have increased an average of 8.6% over last 10 years!
California is home to 6 of the Top Housing Markets in the US.
There is a Housing Shortage in 230 out of 309 US Metro areas!
California Home-Flippers represent 3.3% of all purchases
Only 50% nationally can afford to buy a house, down from 59% VLY
40% of California home-owners are considering a move out of state
9% of Californians are considering relocating elsewhere in the state
Interesting Data
United States home ownership is 65.5%
California home ownership is 54.8% (3rd worse in the US)
California borrowings are $84,050 per person
Riverside & San Bernardino home ownership at 65.2%
OC and LA home ownership at 47.7%
LA & OC have 23 of the top 100 costliest zip codes
37% of all US homes have no mortgage! Of the remaining 63%, 1 in 4 have over 50% equity
67 million homeowners are over the age of 55! Time to market the Baby Boomers
California is the world’s 5th largest economy…
Home Sales History
There are 14,000,000+ residences in California
There are 7.5m SFR in California
There were 21,426 homes sold in Orange County in 2023
There were 33,111 homes sold in Orange County in 2022
There were 38,530 homes sold in Orange County in 2021
There were 34,900 homes sold in Orange County in 2020
There were 34,000 homes sold in Orange County in 2019
There were 35,100 homes sold in Orange County in 2018
There were 38,400 homes sold in Orange County in 2017
There were 37,900 homes sold in Orange County in 2016
There were 53,900 homes sold in Orange County in 2003