03/06/2026
Dams at 71% + but El Niño is Coming: What it Means for Stellenbosch .
At first glance, Stellenbosch is heading into winter in a great position. Thanks to those heavy May downpours, the Western Cape Water Supply System is sitting at a healthy 71.9% capacity. Take a look at how our key local dams compare to this time last year:
• Wemmershoek: 96.7% (vs 53.2% last year)
• Berg River: 76.4% (vs 68.0% last year)
• Theewaterskloof: 73.3% (vs 60.4% last year)
So, what’s the catch?
While our dams are looking fantastic right now, climate scientists are warning of a rapid shift. A strong El Niño phase is locking in for the latter half of 2026, with a 97%+ probability of impacting our upcoming seasons.
For our Mediterranean climate in the Boland, El Niño usually means:
1. An early end to our winter rainfall (the taps could turn off early in Aug/Sept).
2. A scorching, above-normal hot summer ahead.
3. Accelerated evaporation rates on the water we are storing right now.
The Takeaway:
We are incredibly fortunate to have this 71% buffer, but it’s money in the bank that we need to spend wisely. Now is the perfect time for households, estate managers, and businesses to check their tanks, audit irrigation systems, and keep water-wise habits front of mind before the summer heat hits.
Let's guard the surplus together!
For more on what is an El Niño - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU6BYax0R44
