Rockson Advisory

09/10/2026

Wishing everyone celebrating Rosh Hashanah a Shana Tova — a sweet, healthy, and meaningful new year. Grateful for the relationships and community that have shaped the past year, and looking forward to what's ahead in 5787. 🍎🍯

09/02/2026

NYC's housing "safety net" just got a lot less safe. In this edition of Rockson Advisory Insights, we discuss the two fixes for the supply crises everyone has been banking on: developers building big again, or empty offices converting to apartments.

This quarter's data says neither is happening.

📉 Multifamily filings dropped 52% QoQ. Just 8,064 units filed, less than half what the city needs monthly. 153 of 172 projects capped at 99 units, deliberately small to dodge 485-x wage rules.

🏢 And Brooklyn's office availability just hit a near-decade low. Landlords are finding tenants, not surrendering buildings to conversion.

Meanwhile demand isn't slowing anywhere. This summer's record retail traffic across Manhattan proves competition for NYC real estate is only intensifying.

Translation for owners and capital allocators: the supply relief everyone's waiting for isn't coming from the channels people expected.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/conversion-hope-fading-new-yorks-supply-problem-alexander-szikla-d0nxc/

Developers are pulling back on new apartments just as one of the city's favorite fixes, turning empty offices into housing, is starting to look like a dead end. The pipeline is shrinking, fast New York's multifamily development pipeline took a sharp step backward in the second quarter.

08/04/2026

In the latest version of Rockson Advisory Insights, we discuss how trophy office is firmly back in the driver's seat while conversions are getting a reality check.

Why? New office deliveries are down 45% YoY. Scarcity leads to pricing power. Premium buildings now command rents ~60% above lower-quality space.

Meanwhile, NYC launched a $1B program to preserve 30,000+ affordable housing units. Protecting what works beats building new.

Capital is rewarding certainty and repricing complexity.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/scarcity-premium-quality-winning-complexity-getting-repriced-szikla-06puf/

This month's headlines all point to the same underlying tension in New York real estate: the market is rewarding quality and stability, and punishing complexity. Trophy office space is tightening into a landlord's market.

07/07/2026

Massachusetts said no. New York said zero.

Same rent-control debate, opposite outcomes — and both landed the same week the debt market reminded everyone who's really in charge.

The NYC freeze caps income on a million apartments right as refinancing gets harder. June CMBS data made the point: 65% of new delinquencies were simply loans that couldn't refinance. Policy sets the rent. The bond market still sets the terms.

My full breakdown in this month's Rockson Advisory Insights 👇

As we get back to our desks after the long Independence Day weekend, the market handed us a clean illustration of the two forces pulling at commercial real estate from opposite directions: the policymaker's pen and the cost of capital. In Massachusetts, the state's highest court lifted the nation's

06/09/2026

A little late posting this month's edition of Rockson AdvisoryRockson Advisory Insights, but with good reason!

I was a little busy with my personal life getting married to the beautiful, smart and talented wife

For the better part of two years, CRE borrowers have been playing the same waiting game: hold on for Fed cuts, watch SOFR come down, refinance into a better world. That playbook is only half-working and the half that isn't may matter more.

05/10/2026

A short but sweet note this month for Rockson Advisory Insights based on my latest visit to Omaha for my annual Berkshire visit.

I spent my fourth year in Omaha this weekend at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. My first visit was the first meeting after the COVID-19 pandemic, my second visit was the last year Charlie Munger would appear on stage and my third visit was the final meeting with Warren Buffett as Chief Execut

04/07/2026

Everyone is debating whether the Iran conflict ends in a ceasefire or escalation. Wrong question.

The right question is: what does the scar tissue look like when it's over?

Last week, I wrote my Rockson Advisorykson Advisory Insights newsletter and am catching up on sharing across platforms like LinkedIn, Meta, BiggerPockets and Medium (a bit late on posting!)

However, with the looming deadline from The White House, trading sessions today and tomorrow may be especially telling.

Even in the best case — a near-term resolution — we're still looking at:

→ Energy and food prices that don't snap back
→ A Fed with no room to cut
→ A consumer that was already cracking before the first missile flew
→ A housing market that has functionally closed its doors to a generation of buyers

The Walmart Recession Signal is at its highest reading since 2008. Auto repossessions are tracking toward 3 million — 2009 levels. Nearly 29% of households earning $100K+ now shop at Walmart. The trade-down is no longer a low-income story.

And in the worst case? We're talking accelerated de-dollarization, structural inflation, and an American standard of living that starts converging with Europe's consumer price reality — without the social safety net to cushion it.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/scar-tissue-economy-what-iran-conflict-really-costs-us-szikla-7gohe/

Even a ceasefire won't undo the damage. Here's what the accumulating toll means for capital markets, real estate, and the American consumer.

03/03/2026

Commercial real estate is now cheaper than equities on a relative basis. That hasn't happened in roughly 20 years.

In this month's edition of Rockson Advisory Insights, I break down what the data is actually saying about where we are in the cycle — and why private capital isn't waiting around for the all-clear.

A few things I cover:

💡 The valuation reset MetLife Investment Management flagged and what it means for 2026
💡 The $3.4B Veris Residential take-private and the historical pattern it fits into
💡 A list of REITs I think could be next — compared on implied cap rate

One name I've followed since early in my career is Clipper Equity (NYSE: CLPR) that I think deserves a closer look. This one has some personal color alongside the analysis. Would love to hear what you're seeing on the ground.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/commercial-real-estate-trades-cheaper-than-stocks-first-szikla-xw6nc/?trackingId=rOruTRqNR76sW6BBHOy7HA%3D%3D

According to MetLife Investment Management, CRE cap rates relative to stock P/E ratios have dipped below equities for the first time in roughly 20 years. Real estate is now priced cheaper than stocks on a relative basis — a dynamic that hasn't existed since the early 2000s.

02/04/2026

In the February edition of Rockson Advisory Insights, we discuss the three numbers which explain where CRE is heading in 2026:

$545.3B — Full-year transaction volume, up for the second consecutive year

89,400 — Q4 apartment deliveries, the first sub-100K quarter since early 2023

37% — Share of private fundraising that went to data centers (up from 2%)

After two years of recalibration, liquidity is returning and investors are getting off the sidelines. But capital isn't flowing everywhere equally.

Opportunistic strategies are up. Value-add is down. Fundraising timelines have stretched from 15 months to 25.

The market is rewarding precision over broad participation.

What trends are you watching most closely?

After two years of recalibration, commercial real estate is showing clear signs of life. Transaction volume surged, apartment supply finally cooled, and private capital returned to the asset class for the first time since 2021.

01/01/2026

Cheers to 2026 and the opportunities which lie ahead, see the analysis in the latest edition of Rockson Advisory Insights

https://lnkd.in/eXSn3e5n

First of all, wishing my readers a heartfelt happy New Year with much success in the upcoming year! A firm called John Burns Real Estate Consulting puts together a regular which I follow and the signal is clear: expansion mode is here. Capital is flowing again.