10/19/2026
Canada’s housing market just received another reality check. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has cut its forecast for 2026 home sales for the third consecutive quarter, reflecting a resale market that has struggled to build lasting momentum. The revised outlook, released October 16, adds fresh uncertainty for buyers, sellers and real estate professionals across the country.
CREA now expects **444,530 homes to sell through Canadian MLS® Systems in 2026**, a 5.2% decline compared with 2025. That is a significant shift from January, when the association forecast annual sales growth of 5.1%. In July, its outlook had already turned negative, predicting a 1.4% year-over-year drop. The latest revision points to a weaker finish to the year than previously anticipated.
Prices tell a more nuanced story. CREA forecasts the national average home price will edge up just 0.2% in 2026 to **$681,681**—roughly $5,000 below its summer estimate. Meanwhile, September resale activity fell 2.3% from August and was 7.7% lower than a year earlier. These are national figures, so conditions can still differ considerably between provinces, cities and property types.
CREA attributes the softer outlook partly to renewed inflation concerns, higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty about the Bank of Canada’s next moves. When financing costs and the economic outlook are less predictable, some prospective buyers may postpone decisions. That can affect transaction volumes even when the national average price forecast remains broadly stable. These figures describe the current forecast—not a guarantee of how the market will finish 2026.
For anyone navigating Canadian real estate, the key takeaway is to look beyond national headlines. Local inventory, comparable sales, affordability and borrowing costs all matter when deciding whether to buy, sell or wait. **Are you seeing buyers hold back in your local market, or are you noticing activity picking up?**
