03/05/2026
📰 Canada Real Estate & Market Pulse — March 5 2026
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Housing Market: A Tale of Two Canadas
Canada's housing market is telling two very different stories right now depending on where you look. In markets like Toronto and Vancouver, inventory has piled up — pre-sale condo activity in Metro Vancouver is down roughly 60% from an already soft 2024, and the GTA is coming off its worst January for new home sales on record. Meanwhile, cities like Montreal, Calgary, Quebec City, and Victoria started the year with a burst of new listings, showing seller confidence in those markets.
Nationally, new listings jumped 7.3% in January, but buyers haven't kept pace. The sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 45% — right at the edge of buyer's market territory — with about 4.9 months of inventory sitting on the market.
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Affordability: Improving, But Still Tough
Here's some genuinely good news: National Bank Financial's Housing Affordability Index improved for the 8th straight quarter in Q4 2025. That's meaningful progress. But let's be real — home prices are still deeply unaffordable for most Canadians. Rental affordability is also slowly improving after years of hikes, though Alberta remains the only province where the median household spends 30% or less of income on rent.
For buyers sitting on the sidelines, the window may be opening — but only slowly.
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Bank of Canada: Holding Steady at 2.25%
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% at its January 28th meeting, and nearly all forecasters — RBC, TD, Oxford Economics — expect it to hold there through the rest of 2026. The prime rate sits at 4.45%.
With Canada's GDP expected to grow a modest 1.1% this year (the weakest in nearly a decade outside of COVID), the Bank is walking a tightrope between supporting growth and keeping inflation near its 2% target. Inflation came in at 2.3% in January. The next rate decision is March 18th — watch for that one.
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The Wildcard: US Tariffs & CUSMA
The biggest risk hanging over Canada's economy right now is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). If Canada loses its tariff exemption on exports to the US, the Bank of Canada has said this could tip the economy into a deep recession. Already, about 37% of Canadian businesses reported a negative tariff impact in Q3 2025 — and over 65% of manufacturing exporters felt the hit.
For real estate, this uncertainty is keeping buyers cautious and businesses from expanding — which ripples into job markets and housing demand.
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What to Watch
• Bank of Canada rate decision: March 18th
• CREA national sales data: March 17th
• CUSMA renegotiation talks ongoing — any news here moves markets
• Ontario & BC: buyers gaining leverage as inventory stays elevated
• Alberta & Saskatchewan: still relatively balanced, watch oil prices
As always, real estate is hyper-local. If you're curious about what these trends mean for your specific neighbourhood or situation — reach out. That's what I'm here for. 👇
